Yemen Conflict in Most Dangerous Countries Sees Houthis Complete Takeover of Bab al-Mandab Strait Area

Yemen's Houthis seized control of the strategic Bab al-Mandab strait area including Mayyun Island and the port city of Mocha, completing a rapid offensive against Saudi-backed government forces that has heightened risks to global oil shipping routes in one of the most dangerous countries.

Houthi Takeover of Bab al-Mandab

Yemen's Houthis seized on Friday a key Red Sea island in the middle of the Bab al-Mandab strait, completing a push to take control of a waterway crucial to Saudi oil exports, a local government official and eyewitnesses told AFP. [1] Boats carrying armed Houthi fighters reached Mayyun Island after government forces withdrew from it yesterday, the local government official told AFP, referring to an island also known as Perim. [1] The Houthis have completed their takeover of the Bab al-Mandab area and Mayyun Island, which is located in the middle of the strait, he added, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity. [1] An eyewitness said gunmen were deploying along the Bab al-Mandab shore and are driving around in military vehicles. [1] The Houthi advance raises fears of disruption to a second crucial global oil and shipping route. [3] Iran-aligned Houthis seized control of Yemen’s port city of Mocha on Thursday and advanced down the Red Sea coast to strategic islands, military sources said. [3] Yemeni government military sources said the Houthis had gained further leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern outlet of the Red Sea and one of the world’s most important shipping routes, and had reached the islands of Hanish. [3]

Offensive and Casualties

The Iran-backed Houthis, who have for years controlled large parts of northern Yemen, launched a large-scale offensive last week against Saudi-backed government forces, scoring one victory after another in fighting that has left hundreds dead. [1] Since last week, the fighting in Yemen has left more than 500 dead, mostly combatants, according to an AFP tally compiled from several sources. [1] It has also forced nearly 20,000 people to flee their homes, the International Organization for Migration said on Tuesday. [1] Before the offensive, the Houthis already controlled a large part of Yemen's north, including the capital Sanaa, as well as the major port city of Hodeidah on the Red Sea. [1] But they did not yet hold any areas directly overlooking Bab al-Mandab. [1] Yemeni government forces and their allies are relocating south along the Red Sea coast to Dhubab on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, across from Perim Island, government military sources said. [3]

Saudi Airstrikes and Regional Fallout

Saudi Arabia has responded with dozens of airstrikes, with the latest two hitting Mocha airport, Houthi media reported on Friday. [1] On Wednesday, the Saudi-led coalition battling the Houthis said the group fired ballistic missiles and drones at several cities in southern Saudi Arabia. [1] On Thursday, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said Saudi Arabia had launched 64 strikes on Yemen over the previous 24 hours. [1] With their drones and missiles, the Houthis have been able to disrupt traffic in the Red Sea. [1] While Saudi Arabia has hit back with airstrikes, it has failed to stop the Houthis' lightning advance. [1] The fighting in Yemen has taken centre-stage in the Middle East war, which erupted with US-Israeli strikes on Iran and prompted the Islamic republic to blockade another waterway crucial to global energy flows, the Strait of Hormuz. [1] Bab al-Mandab links Asia to Europe via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. [1] It has gained importance as a transit route crucially for oil flows from Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, since the start of the Middle East war. [1] Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has relied on the Red Sea route since the Iran conflict effectively closed Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil used to flow. [3]

Oil Market Reaction

On Friday, both Brent North Sea Crude, the main international benchmark, and US oil contract WTI were above $100. [1] Brent crude prices jumped as much as 4% on Thursday above $105 a barrel on concern over disruption to supply routes, and the U.S. national average price of diesel surpassed $6 a gallon for the first time ever, according to price tracker GasBuddy. [3] If the Houthis were to gain control of the waterway on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz, it could give their backer Iran a critical advantage in the war with the United States, reducing supplies through a second major transit corridor and sending oil prices surging. [3]

International Response

The United Nations Security Council met Thursday to discuss the conflict with its Yemen envoy, Hans Grundberg, who called for the active investment of every member of this body to contain what could be the precipice for a far more dangerous conflict. [1] U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg told a U.N. Security Council meeting about Yemen on Thursday that the international community must act to address a new and more dangerous phase in the Yemen war. [3] The emergency meeting was brought together by the United Kingdom, which called on the Security Council to send a clear and consistent message: the Houthis must de-escalate, cease their attacks, and return to a path towards peace. [1] Jenifer Neidhart de Ortiz, the U.S. representative at the meeting, accused the Houthis of acting as agents and tools of Iran. [3] This escalation is unacceptable, and those who enable it bear responsibility for its consequences, she said. [3] Iran's foreign ministry said in a statement that the Yemen conflict could not be solved by blockade or military action against the Houthis and called for dialogue, without addressing Iran's own role. [3] Iran's government on Friday called for an end to Saudi Arabia's blockade of Yemen and the immediate resumption of talks, in its first public statement since Iranbacked Houthi rebels entered a key Yemeni port and intensified their threat to a key global shipping alternative. [2]

Humanitarian Impact

Mohamed, a 46-year-old Yemeni, who left Mocha in the middle of the night, told AFP there was an apocalyptic atmosphere in the port city. [1] Mujahid Tahami, who also set off for Aden, said some families had fallen victim to looting by gangs as they tried to flee. [1] Yemen relapsed into war in July after years of relative calm punctured by sporadic violence and deepening poverty. [1] The ongoing exchanges risk returning Yemen to a conflict that left hundreds of thousands of people dead and sparked one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. [1] The Houthis, after seizing Yemen's capital and forcing out the government, fought the Saudi-led coalition from 2015 until a United Nations-brokered ceasefire in 2022. [1] Yemen's Houthi-run humanitarian operations coordination centre said in a statement that Red Sea navigation is safe for all shipping companies except for Saudi vessels. [3]

What to watch next: Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said the group’s operations were defensive and would stop once attacks on Yemen stopped, while sources indicated the Houthi advance had direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.