Doomsday Clock Ticks Closer as Russia Spends €110bn on Ukraine War in First Half of 2026
The doomsday clock ticks closer amid Russia's continued military campaign in Ukraine, where daily personnel losses persist alongside intensified strikes on infrastructure and global effects such as rising grain prices.
Russian Military Expenditure Surges
Russia spent a total of 10.7 trillion roubles on the military in the first half of 2026, equivalent to around €110 billion. [5] This figure marks a 30 percent increase compared with the same period in 2025. [5] Military spending accounted for 10.5 percent of GDP generated during the first half of 2026 and 57 percent of state budget revenue. [5] Ukrainian assessments indicate that Russia will probably have the resources to finance the war for the next two years as well, with the possibility that these resources will last until 2027 and 2028. [5]
Daily Combat Losses and Battlefield Developments
Russia has lost 1,490 soldiers killed and wounded over the past day, bringing its total number of personnel losses to 1,503,880 since 24 February 2022. [1] A Russian Geran-4 jet-powered drone struck a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet at Vasylkiv air base in Kyiv region. [5] Russian bloggers have begun writing about the withdrawal of Russian soldiers near Lyman. [5] Ukrainians set a record by striking the Russian rear with a drone some 3,000 km from their borders. [5]
Russian military spending reaches €110 billion in first half of 2026 amid Ukraine war. — Source: kyivindependent
Russian Recruitment Practices
Russia exploits and deceives foreign nationals to enlist them in its armed forces and send them to fight in Ukraine, and in many cases these practices amount to human trafficking, according to a report by Amnesty International published on Sept. 10. [2] Russia primarily targets people from low-income countries in the Global South. [2] Russian recruiters lure people from abroad under false pretenses and exploit the precarious situation of migrants in Russia by weaponizing overstayed work visas or supposed criminal offenses and offering military service as an alternative to detention or deportation. [2] Once victims sign the paperwork, often in a language they do not understand, military commanders restrict their movements, deploy them to the front lines with minimal preparation, and threaten those who seek a way out. [2] The Russian army misrepresents the nature of the work and the risks involved to these foreign nationals as a key tactic to recruit them. [2] Russian recruiters also offer lucrative payments and pathways to Russian citizenship as incentives that rarely are fulfilled. [2] Many foreign recruits lack any kind of military training and get deployed to active combat zones after just two weeks of training, in what Amnesty International called an apparent disregard for human life. [2] Two Sri Lankan nationals interviewed in the report said they were led to believe they would be working as cooks but were sent to fight on the front lines and captured within weeks by Ukrainian forces. [2]
Attacks on Civilian and Critical Infrastructure
Four people have been killed and more than 60 injured after a Russian strike on a shopping center in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, authorities said on Sept. 10. [2] Russian drone attacks hit Kyiv morning and evening, injuring 4. [2] Ukrainian forces have struck Russian rear areas up to 3,000 km away. [5]
Global grain prices increase due to escalation of Russia-Ukraine war in the Black Sea. — Source: kyivindependent
Black Sea Grain Trade Disruption
Global grain prices are rising steeply as Ukraine and Russia intensify attacks upon one another's main export infrastructure on the Black and Azov seas. [3] In August, Russian wheat exports tumbled 56 percent to just 2 million metric tons from 4.5 million metric tons a year earlier. [3] World food prices hit their highest level since November 2022, rising to an average of 133.3 points from a revised 130.8 in July, as measured by the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization price index. [3] World wheat prices stood 15 percent higher than a year ago. [3] With almost all major grain terminals shut down, domestic wheat prices in Russia have collapsed well below breakeven. [3] Russia is redirecting some grain to its Baltic ports and terminals in Latvia and Lithuania, but these can only handle about 10 percent of the volumes usually shipped by its southern ports. [3] Latvia plans to impose a tariff of 300 percent on grain arriving from Russia and Belarus. [3] The Estonian Foreign Ministry said on Sept. 10 that it would ensure no Russian grain passes through its ports and would impose sanctions to prohibit it if necessary. [3] Ukraine could lose over $5 billion in export revenue if grain exports via the Black Sea remain obstructed until the end of the 2026-2027 marketing year. [3]
NATO Response to Russian Naval Activity
NATO allies disrupted a covert Russian naval exercise near Norway's Svalbard archipelago involving technology designed to disable critical subsea cables without leaving a trace. [2] The operation was carried out by Russia's Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research, which used deep-sea submersibles to simulate deploying the technology. [2] Britain, Norway, and the United States tracked and confronted the Russian vessels at sea, preventing them from completing the exercise before they eventually left the area. [2] No subsea cables were damaged during the operation. [2] "Through our joint operation, we sent a clear message to Russia that they cannot operate covertly," Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Sandvik said. [2] "We have made it unequivocally clear to Russian authorities that any attempt to target our critical infrastructure will be detected and met with consequences," he added. [2] Between 2024 and 2026, more than 20 subsea cables in the Baltic and Arctic regions were damaged. [2]
What to watch next: Ukrainian officials expect decisions with partners on additional support, including strengthening air defenses, while Russia continues long-range strikes and faces further constraints on grain exports through alternative routes.
