Conflict Monitor
Global conflict map for tracking wars, strikes, and geopolitical escalation
This page focuses the live intelligence system on conflict activity. Follow the regions with the greatest concentration of war and strike updates, then connect them directly to Catalyst’s market impact layer.
Live surface
Conflict hotspot surface
Use the map to inspect the most important war and strike zones right now, then drill into the market effects and supporting event details.
Active conflict events
Conflict updates ordered for fast scanning and route-through into the event detail surface.
| Event | Type | Severity |
|---|---|---|
🎯 Attacks on Iran Oil Facilities Attacks on Iran's oil facilities have resulted in toxic black rain, posing a significant public health risk. | Strike | CRITICAL |
🎯 Iran-Hezbollah Attack on Israel Hezbollah and Iranian forces launched a massive coordinated drone and missile attack across Israel, escalating the ongoing war involving Iran, the US, and Israel. | Strike | CRITICAL |
🎯 Pakistan army strikes Afghan civilians The Pakistan army conducted a military strike targeting civilians in Afghanistan, potentially resulting in casualties. | Strike | HIGH |
⚔️ Iran War Threatens Supply Chains The Iran war, which began late last month, is threatening critical shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, disrupting Asia's energy imports and exports and raising concerns about the reliability of US security guarantees for global supply chains. | War | CRITICAL |
🎯 Bomb Strikes in Tehran Residents in Tehran report increasing fear and isolation due to unexpected bomb strikes affecting the area. | Strike | HIGH |
🎯 Drone Attack on Iraqi Oil Refinery A drone attack on the Lanaz oil refinery in Iraq's Kurdish region caused a fire and suspended operations, with Iran denying responsibility and noting imitations of their drones in regional attacks. | Strike | HIGH |
⚔️ US-Israel-Iran War Escalates The escalating US-Israeli war with Iran is driving global oil prices above $110 and causing stock market declines due to fears of disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. | War | CRITICAL |
🎯 North Korea Missile Launch North Korea launched a possible missile towards the sea during ongoing US-South Korea military drills, heightening tensions in the region. | Strike | HIGH |
💥 Ongoing Rocket Threats in Israel Ongoing rocket threats in Israel are causing fear and uncertainty among citizens, with calls for desperately needed aid as highlighted by Yael Eckstein. | Conflict | CRITICAL |
🎯 Missile Attack on UN Base in Lebanon A Ghanaian UN peacekeeper was critically injured in a missile attack on a UN base in Lebanon and is recovering after undergoing surgery. | Strike | CRITICAL |
Global Risk Index
|conflict and macro are driving the current global risk posture.
Hotspots
Most active regions
Middle East
18
Dominant signal: war
Iran
13
Dominant signal: strike
Israel
6
Dominant signal: strike
Iraq
7
Dominant signal: strike
Ukraine
7
Dominant signal: strike
Lebanon
4
Dominant signal: strike
Markets at risk
Assets with live geopolitical exposure
stock
META
Meta
$613.71
-3.83%
Southeast Asia Crime Crackdown Targets Scams and Smuggling
stock
AAPL
Apple
$250.12
-2.21%
Catalyst is tracking this asset for event-driven moves.
crypto
XRP
XRP
$1.42
+2.15%
Catalyst is tracking this asset for event-driven moves.
crypto
LINK
Chainlink
$9.18
+2.13%
Catalyst is tracking this asset for event-driven moves.
crypto
AVAX
Avalanche
$9.74
+1.85%
Catalyst is tracking this asset for event-driven moves.
stock
NVDA
Nvidia
$180.25
-1.58%
Catalyst is tracking this asset for event-driven moves.
Catalyst highlights
Event-driven market context
GEOPOLITICS / HIGH
North Korea Fires 10 Missiles Amid US-South Korea Drills
North Korea launched approximately 10 missiles into the sea as a show of force during joint US-South Korea military exercises, escalating regional tensions. This action, denounced as a UN violation, raises concerns about potential impacts on global markets and stability in the Korean Peninsula.
MACRO / WATCH
Trump Urges Unpaid TSA Workers Amid Shutdown Disruptions
President Trump is urging unpaid TSA officers to continue working as the US government shutdown reaches its 29th day. This is impacting federal employees and airport operations during peak travel, raising economic concerns.
GEOPOLITICS / WATCH
Cuban Protests Erupt Over Blackouts, Sparking Regional Instability
In Moron, Cuba, residents rioted against economic hardships and blackouts, attacking a Communist Party office and resulting in arrests and possible injuries. This unrest could disrupt trade, tourism, and investor confidence in the region, highlighting risks to market stability.
GEOPOLITICS / WATCH
TandT Legal Opinion Backs US SelfDefense in Caribbean Drug Strikes
A legal opinion for Trinidad and Tobago justifies US military strikes on suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean as acts of self-defense under international law. This could lead to significant diplomatic implications in the region.
About this tracker
What This Map Monitors
The global conflict map tracks active armed conflicts, military operations, and security incidents around the world. Each event is geolocated and categorized by type — interstate war, civil conflict, insurgency, terrorism, border skirmish, or military exercise. The map provides a real-time geopolitical overview that is difficult to assemble from fragmented news sources.
Conflict data is sourced from verified field reports, defense ministry announcements, and open-source intelligence. Events are cross-referenced against multiple sources before publication to reduce the risk of misinformation. This tracker integrates with our live world event map, where conflict events appear alongside natural disasters and other global developments.
Types of Armed Conflict in 2026
Interstate wars — between two or more national militaries — are the least common but most consequential conflict type. They trigger arms embargos, economic sanctions, diplomatic realignments, and commodity price shocks. The Russia-Ukraine war is the largest active interstate conflict, reshaping European security architecture and energy markets simultaneously. Interstate wars today rarely remain bilateral; external support, weapons transfers, and intelligence sharing blur the line between belligerent and participant.
Civil wars and insurgencies dominate the current conflict count. The Sahel region of West Africa hosts overlapping insurgencies across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — all three countries experienced coups between 2020 and 2023, and jihadi groups affiliated with both ISIS and al-Qaeda have filled the governance vacuum. These conflicts share arms suppliers, recruitment networks, and territory in ways that make them effectively one interconnected regional crisis despite formal borders separating them.
Terrorism has shifted structurally over the past decade. The network-directed, centrally planned attack model that characterized al-Qaeda has given way to ideology-inspired lone actors and small cells that are harder to surveil in advance. Simultaneously, state-sponsored terrorism — governments using non-state proxies to conduct violence deniably — has become more prevalent, particularly in the Middle East. The global risk index factors all of these conflict types into its stability assessment.
How Conflicts Cluster and Spread
Conflicts rarely respect the borders on which they are mapped. The Sahel band — running from Senegal to Sudan — is the most concentrated active conflict zone on Earth, with over a dozen distinct armed groups operating across borders that were drawn without regard for ethnic or religious communities. Arms flow freely across the region. A weapons cache lost in Libya in 2011 has been traced to conflict zones as far as Nigeria and the Central African Republic.
Spillover takes several forms. Refugee flows from conflict zones destabilize host countries — the Syrian civil war generated over 5 million refugees, fundamentally changing the domestic politics of Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. Economic shock transmission is another pathway: a conflict that disrupts a major export corridor affects countries with no direct military involvement. The Houthi campaign against Red Sea shipping beginning in late 2023 raised insurance costs for commercial vessels globally and delayed supply chains across Asia, Europe, and East Africa.
Geographic clustering patterns are legible on the conflict map. The Middle East arc from Yemen through Israel-Gaza to Lebanon reflects competing regional power structures. Southeast Asian ethnic conflicts cluster along the borders of Myanmar with China, India, and Thailand, reflecting decades of ethnic minority insurgencies. Viewing the map with cluster analysis reveals these structural patterns that isolated incident reporting obscures.
Proxy Wars and Great Power Competition
Modern conflicts rarely stay bilateral. Iran's proxy network — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Houthi forces in Yemen, and multiple armed factions in Iraq and Syria — allows Tehran to project military pressure across the region while maintaining plausible deniability. Russia's Wagner Group, before its restructuring following the 2023 mutiny, operated across Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Sudan, filling security vacuums that Western forces had vacated.
China's security footprint is expanding more quietly. Belt and Road infrastructure deals often include security provisions; China has its first overseas military base in Djibouti and has negotiated basing access in several other countries. Unlike Russian or Iranian proxy strategies, Chinese security engagement tends to follow economic interests and focuses on stability rather than conflict support — but it reshapes local power balances nonetheless.
Reading proxy conflicts on the conflict map requires understanding these networks. An airstrike in Yemen may reflect Iranian-Saudi competition more than local grievances. A coup in a Sahel country may reflect Russian influence-buying as much as domestic military frustration. The WW3 risk map and Doomsday Clock tracker provide complementary perspectives on great power competition and escalation risk.
Wars Happening Today
Track individual conflicts in detail with our dedicated conflict trackers. Current active wars and conflict zones include:
Major wars: Sudan War (SAF vs RSF civil war), Israel War (Gaza conflict and regional spillover), Ukraine War (Russia-Ukraine conflict), and Myanmar Civil War (resistance vs military junta).
Regional conflicts: Yemen War (Houthi conflict and Red Sea crisis), Congo War (M23 and eastern DRC violence), Syria War (fragmented civil war), and Iran (proxy conflicts and nuclear tensions).
Broader views: See all Middle East conflicts, wars in Africa, the WW3 risk map, or our complete current wars overview. Check the Doomsday Clock for the broader global risk picture and most dangerous countries rankings.
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a conflict on this map?
A conflict event is any incident involving organized armed violence between identifiable parties — state militaries, rebel groups, terrorist organizations, or militias. This includes battles, airstrikes, bombings, armed clashes, and military operations. Protests and civil unrest are not included unless they involve sustained armed violence.
How is conflict severity assessed?
Severity is based on casualties, civilian displacement, territorial impact, weapons used, involvement of external powers, and escalation potential. A multi-factor model weighs these inputs and assigns a rating from low to critical. The rating is dynamic and updates as the situation evolves with new information.
Where does the conflict data come from?
Data is compiled from open-source intelligence, verified field reports from conflict zones, official defense ministry communications, international monitoring organizations, and satellite imagery analysis. Each event is cross-referenced against multiple sources to verify accuracy before publication.
How do proxy wars differ from direct conflict?
In a proxy conflict, one or more external powers supply weapons, funding, training, or intelligence to a local armed group without deploying their own forces directly. This allows sponsoring states to pursue strategic objectives while limiting their direct risk and maintaining deniability. Proxy conflicts are often harder to resolve because the local parties lack the authority to negotiate settlements that bind their external sponsors.
How do conflicts affect financial markets?
Armed conflicts can disrupt commodity supply chains, trigger energy price spikes, cause currency devaluation in affected regions, and drive capital flight to safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries. The severity and location of a conflict determine its market impact — wars near major shipping lanes or oil-producing regions have outsized economic effects.
How often is the conflict map updated?
Conflict data is updated throughout the day as new incidents are reported and verified. Major escalations appear within an hour. Ongoing conflict situations are reviewed and updated at least daily, with severity assessments adjusted as conditions change on the ground.
Explore next
Related intelligence surfaces
Last updated 3/15/2026, 1:26:15 PM