Houthis Seize Mocha and Advance on Bab el-Mandeb Strait with Iranian Guidance Amid Current Wars in the World
This development forms part of the current wars in the world, where Houthis, with direct Iranian guidance, have seized the Yemeni port city of Mocha and advanced along the Red Sea coast to threaten control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, disrupting global shipping and driving oil prices sharply higher amid the ongoing Iran-US conflict.
Houthi Advance Threatens Key Red Sea Shipping Route
Yemeni government military sources said the Houthis had gained further leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern outlet of the Red Sea and one of the world's most important shipping routes, and had reached the islands of Hanish. [1] Yemeni government forces and their allies are relocating south along the Red Sea coast to Dhubab on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, across from Perim Island, government military sources said. [1] Control of Dhubab and the island is key to gaining hold of the strait, they said. [1] By seizing the southwestern port city of Mocha, the Houthis have strengthened their chokehold on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key waterway whose disruption further constricts global energy supplies after Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. [3] The lightning Houthi advance down Yemen's Red Sea coast this week came with direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guards seeking to open a new front in Iran's war with the US, according to Yemeni government, Iranian, and regional sources. [3] Yemen's Houthi-run humanitarian operations coordination centre said in a statement that Red Sea navigation is safe for all shipping companies except for Saudi vessels. [1]
Iranian Revolutionary Guards Directed Operations
Yemeni government, Iranian and regional sources told Reuters the Houthi advance down the coast this week came with direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. [1] The lightning Houthi advance down Yemen's Red Sea coast this week came with direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guards seeking to open a new front in Iran's war with the US, according to Yemeni government, Iranian, and regional sources. [3] Iran told the Houthis last week to escalate their attacks on Saudi Arabia, a close US ally, and promised more funding, weapons and senior officers to help them do so, two Iranian sources said. [3] Several senior Revolutionary Guards commanders had already traveled to Yemen to oversee and command Houthi attacks directed against Saudi Arabia after weeks of discussions over military strategy, a regional diplomat briefed by Tehran said. [3] Inside Yemen, five military sources from the Saudi-backed and internationally recognized government said the Revolutionary Guards had directed the new Houthi campaign along the Red Sea coast, a flat, narrow plain known as the Tihama, starting with a blitz of rocket fire. [3] Citing communications intercepts and the accounts of captured Houthi prisoners, the Yemeni military sources said they believed the Iranian effort was being directed by Abdolreza Shahlaei, a top Revolutionary Guards commander. [3] The Guards were still able to move weapons and personnel in and out of Yemen despite an aerial and maritime blockade of Houthi areas, the Iranian sources said without elaborating on how they did so. [3] The evolution of the Houthis was basically because of the new weapons they gained, either through the Iranians directly or through the different smuggling networks that they are counting on, said Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, pointing specifically at their use of drones in the latest offensive. [3]
Oil Prices Surge on Supply Route Fears
Brent crude prices jumped as much as 4% on Thursday above $105 a barrel on concern over disruption to supply routes, and the U.S. national average price of diesel surpassed $6 a gallon for the first time ever, according to price tracker GasBuddy. [1] Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has relied on the Red Sea route since the Iran conflict effectively closed Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil used to flow. [1] Just seven vessels transited the strait on Wednesday, half the 10-day average, preliminary ship-tracking data showed. [1] After joining the war with an attack on Israel in March, the Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia in July and escalated attacks this month. [1]
International Reactions and UN Warnings
U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg told a U.N. Security Council meeting about Yemen on Thursday that the international community must act to address "a new and more dangerous phase" in the Yemen war. [1] The Houthis' gaining control of Mocha gave them "a direct presence on the approaches to one of the world’s most vital straits," raising serious concerns about freedom of navigation, he said. [1] Jenifer Neidhart de Ortiz, the U.S. representative at the meeting, accused the Houthis of acting as "agents and tools of Iran." [1] Iran's foreign ministry said in a statement that the Yemen conflict could not be solved by blockade or military action against the Houthis and called for dialogue, without addressing Iran's own role. [1] Pakistan has delivered a Saudi warning to Iran to rein in the Houthis to try to prevent the crisis from spiralling, Saudi, Pakistani and Iranian sources said. [1] A senior Iranian official said Tehran's response was: "Iran does not control the Houthis". [1]
Trump Links Iran War to US Midterms
The war and subsequent increase in fuel prices have helped drive Trump's popularity to record lows, according to polls. [1] He said Iran was trying to influence the midterm elections, which will determine whether his Republican Party retains control of Congress. [1] "I don't believe in the word 'regret.' You can always question yourself a little bit," Trump said in an interview with Fox News host Laura Ingraham broadcast on Thursday, when asked if he regretted the Iran war due to the impact it may have on the elections. [1] "If I had it do again, I would do exactly as I did," he added. [1] Trump also reiterated his thinking that the war will end immediately after the midterm election, a comment he also made on Wednesday. [1]
Other Active Conflicts: Ukraine and Sudan
It is so dangerous now in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk that police say it is time for civilians to get out. [5] These neighbouring cities are the biggest still under full Ukrainian control in the eastern Donbas region. [5] In the worst affected areas, forced evacuations of families with children have already begun, says Pavlo Dyachenko of Donetsk police. [5] The number of glide bombs launched by Russia jumped from 40 in June to 109 in July and 92 in August, according to data published by Ukrainian police and studied by the BBC. [5] Over the summer, the number of civilians wounded by Russian attacks on the two cities increased from 70 in June to 212 in August, say Ukrainian police. [5] Sudan’s Sovereignty Council chief says RSF excluded from national dialogue. [2] Abdel Fattah al-Burhan says Rapid Support Forces will have no role in Sudanese state after war. [2]
What to watch next: The overall military situation in Yemen remains hard to gauge after a years-long pause in major warfare since a ceasefire was agreed in 2022, with the pro-government coalition having suffered from internal splits, while Russia claims to be in full control of Kostyantynivka and continues focus on the Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk axis.
