Live intelligence tracking 184 Iran-related conflict events across 6 active fronts, plus Strait of Hormuz risk, nuclear breakout monitoring, and oil price impact.
Conflict zones
Direct military operations and proxy network activity across 6 theaters. Click any front for recent events and latest coverage.
Iran — Direct Operations
EscalatingIRGC, Iranian Military vs Israel, US Forces
Situation overview
Direct military exchanges between Iran and Israel escalated in 2026, moving beyond proxy warfare into strikes on each other’s territory. The IRGC operates ballistic missile forces, drone programs, and cyber capabilities. US naval forces maintain a carrier presence in the Persian Gulf.
Recent events
Latest coverage
Yemen — Houthis
EscalatingAnsar Allah (Houthis) vs Saudi Coalition, US Navy
Situation overview
Houthi forces have demonstrated the ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Red Sea and launch ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia and Israel, disrupting 12% of global trade. US and UK naval forces conduct ongoing strikes against Houthi launch sites.
Recent events
Lebanon — Hezbollah
EscalatingHezbollah vs Israel Defense Forces
Situation overview
Hezbollah fields an estimated 150,000+ rockets and missiles aimed at Israel, making it the most heavily armed non-state actor on Earth. Cross-border rocket exchanges and Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah positions have intensified throughout 2026.
Recent events
Latest coverage
Iraq — Shia Militias
ActiveKata’ib Hezbollah, PMF vs US Military Bases
Situation overview
Iranian-backed Shia militia groups have repeatedly attacked US military facilities in Iraq with drones and rockets. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) operate as a parallel military structure with direct ties to the IRGC Quds Force.
Recent events
Latest coverage
Syria — Allied Forces
EscalatingIRGC Quds Force, Hezbollah vs Israel, Opposition
Situation overview
Syria serves as Iran’s critical land corridor connecting Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Iraqi and Syrian territory. IRGC and Hezbollah maintain forward positions that are regularly targeted by Israeli airstrikes.
Recent events
Gaza — Hamas / PIJ
EscalatingHamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad vs Israel
Situation overview
While not under direct Iranian command, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad receive funding, weapons, and training from Tehran. The conflict that erupted after October 7 continues to reshape the regional security landscape.
Track this conflict liveRecent events
Latest coverage
Iran's proxy network — the "Axis of Resistance" — is the most extensive state-sponsored militia system in the world. See how these fronts connect on the live globe below or explore the full event feed in the global conflict map.
Live surface
Military strikes, proxy conflicts, and escalation events across Iran and its regional network. Click markers for event details.
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As of 2026, Iran is at the center of the Middle East's most dangerous conflict network. While not in a declared state of total war, Iran operates the region's most extensive proxy network — supporting Houthi forces in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq, and allied groups in Syria and Gaza. Direct military exchanges between Iran and Israel escalated in 2026, moving beyond proxy warfare into strikes on each other's territory. Iran's nuclear program has advanced to 60% uranium enrichment, and its strategic position along the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil transits — means any escalation immediately affects world energy prices. This page tracks every Iran-related conflict event in real time with live intelligence data, proxy network monitoring, and market impact analysis.
Latest analysis
The Forgotten Battlefield: Environmental Catastrophe Amid Lebanon's Ceasefire
Apr 17, 2026
Lebanon's Youth in the Crossfire: Education Disruptions and Future Prospects Amid Ceasefire Instability
Apr 17, 2026
Lebanon's Fragile Ceasefire Violations: Unraveling the Environmental Toll of Israel-Lebanon Strikes
Apr 17, 2026
Syria's Northeast Power Shift: Kurdish Alliances and the Path to Fragile Stability
Apr 17, 2026
Middle East Strike Intensifies: Real-Time 3D Globe Tracking Reveals Iran Conflict's Ripple Effects on Global Commodities
Apr 17, 2026
Middle East Strike in Gaza Upends Identities: A Father's Battle for Paternity Amid Escalating Violence
Apr 17, 2026
Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Oil Price Forecast: The Overlooked Economic Toll on Small Businesses and Local Communities
Apr 17, 2026
Lebanon's Fragile 10-Day Ceasefire and Oil Price Forecast: Internal Political Shifts and the Path to Stability
Apr 17, 2026
Iran War Day 48: The Overlooked Supply Chain Crisis and Oil Price Forecast Threatening Emerging Economies
Apr 17, 2026
Lebanon 10-Day Ceasefire Oil Price Forecast: Unleashing Untapped Community Resilience in the Shadow of Israel-Hezbollah Conflict
Apr 17, 2026
Military strikes, proxy operations, and geopolitical developments ordered by recency.
| Event | Type | Severity |
|---|---|---|
💥 Lebanon Conflict Crisis Ongoing conflict in Lebanon has resulted in over 1 million displaced people, 306,888 Syrians returning home, and more than 2,586 fatalities since March, highlighting a severe humanitarian crisis. | Conflict | CRITICAL |
🎯 Attack on Bulk Carrier in Hormuz A bulk carrier near the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by multiple small craft, as reported by the UK Maritime Trade Operations, amid ongoing regional tensions following the start of the Iran war. | Strike | HIGH |
🎯 Bulk Carrier Attack off Iran A bulk carrier was attacked by multiple small craft 11 nautical miles west of Sirik, Iran, with the crew reported safe and no environmental impact. | Strike | CRITICAL |
💥 Escalating Hostilities in Iran Escalating hostilities in Iran and Lebanon have triggered widespread humanitarian crises, including forced refugee returns to Afghanistan and Syria, affecting over 24 million displaced people across the region. | Conflict | CRITICAL |
💥 Violence in West Bank Israeli forces injured at least 7 Palestinians and arrested 6 others in the West Bank during ongoing violence. | Conflict | HIGH |
🎯 Israeli Strikes in Lebanon Israeli attacks in Lebanon over the last 24 hours killed 20 people and injured 46, contributing to a total death toll nearing 2,700 and injuries reaching 8,229. | Strike | CRITICAL |
🎯 Missile Strike on US Navy Ship Near Hormuz Two missiles struck a US Navy ship near the Strait of Hormuz, causing it to turn back amid reported tensions. | Strike | HIGH |
⚔️ US-Iran War Terminates US President Trump informs lawmakers that the war against Iran has ended as the 60-day deadline under the War Powers Resolution arrives, marking the conclusion of the conflict. | War | CRITICAL |
💥 US-Iran clash in Hormuz US and Iranian militaries exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions in the region. | Conflict | MEDIUM |
⚔️ Hamas: Israel Prolonging Gaza War Hamas accuses Israel of extending the ongoing war in Gaza through daily killings and demolitions, highlighting the persistent conflict. | War | CRITICAL |
Hotspots
Iran
68
Dominant signal: strike
Lebanon
24
Dominant signal: conflict
Syria
31
Dominant signal: conflict
Palestine
21
Dominant signal: conflict
Yemen
23
Dominant signal: war
Iraq
15
Dominant signal: war
Markets at risk
index
CAC 40
$44.27
-2.42%
Catalyst is tracking this asset for event-driven moves.
commodity
Crude Oil
$103.98
-2.29%
US Escalates Hormuz Tensions with Ship Escorts Amid Iran Warnings
index
DAX
$41.48
-2.01%
Catalyst is tracking this asset for event-driven moves.
crypto
Dogecoin
$0.11
-1.61%
Catalyst is tracking this asset for event-driven moves.
crypto
Chainlink
$9.47
+1.46%
Catalyst is tracking this asset for event-driven moves.
index
Hang Seng
$23.44
-1.43%
Catalyst is tracking this asset for event-driven moves.
Historic Iran conflicts
Iran-Iraq War legacy · 1979 hostage crisis aftermath · 2020 Soleimani strike doctrine. These events shaped the modern US-Iran-Israel triangle and continue to define the proxy network architecture traceable on the live conflict map above.
Authorities & monitoring
National (Iran)
Iran's primary instrument of power projection, the IRGC controls the country's ballistic missile forces, drone programs, and cyber operations. Its Quds Force foreign-ops arm manages the regional proxy network spanning Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The IRGC reports directly to the Supreme Leader, bypassing the conventional military chain of command.
Live bulletinNational (Iran)
Iran's top national security body, the SNSC is chaired by the President but operates under the Supreme Leader's veto authority. It serves as the principal decision-making forum for nuclear policy, military posture, and crisis response. SNSC statements carry the highest authority of any official Iranian government voice.
Live bulletinNational (Israel)
The IDF is the operational lead for Israel's military response to Hezbollah, Iran-backed Syrian operations, and direct exchanges with Iran. Northern Command coordinates ground and air activity along the Lebanon and Syria borders, while the air force conducts long-range strikes on Iranian and proxy targets. The IDF issues real-time confirmations of strikes through its official X account and spokesperson.
Live bulletinMultinational US-led
US Central Command is the unified combatant command responsible for US military operations across the Middle East and Central Asia. It coordinates American strike, naval, and air operations against IRGC-aligned targets in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, including counter-Houthi missions in the Red Sea. CENTCOM is headquartered at MacDill AFB, Florida, with a forward headquarters in Qatar.
Live bulletinPersian Gulf / Red Sea
The US Fifth Fleet is the Navy's primary operating force in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Red Sea, headquartered in Manama, Bahrain. It maintains carrier strike group presence to deter Iranian aggression and ensure freedom of navigation through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. The Fifth Fleet conducts Houthi counter-strike operations jointly with the UK Royal Navy as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian.
Live bulletinInternational (UN)
The IAEA is the UN's nuclear watchdog responsible for independently verifying that Iran's nuclear activities remain within agreed limits. Since 2023, Iran has significantly restricted IAEA monitoring access — removing surveillance cameras, limiting inspector visits, and reducing the inspection cadence at key enrichment facilities. The agency publishes quarterly Director General reports that are transmitted to the UN Security Council and serve as the primary independent record of Iran's nuclear status.
Live bulletinIRGC capabilities · IAEA enrichment monitoring · CENTCOM Persian Gulf naval posture. Bookmark these official feeds for the most authoritative real-time signals on Iran-related military, diplomatic, and nuclear developments. The World Now cross-references their bulletins for the live tracker above.
Nuclear program
Enrichment
60%
Weapons-grade is 90%
Breakout window
~1–2 weeks (2026 IAEA estimates)
IAEA monitoring
blocked
JCPOA status
collapsed
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) publicly disclosed the existence of a secret uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, Iran's first major nuclear secret to be exposed to the world. The revelation shocked Western governments and triggered an international crisis over Iran's nuclear ambitions. It forced the IAEA to demand emergency inspections and set the stage for two decades of confrontation.
US President Obama, UK Prime Minister Brown, and French President Sarkozy jointly announced the discovery of a secret Iranian uranium enrichment facility buried inside a mountain near the holy city of Qom. Iran admitted the facility existed just days later, claiming it was a backup site and entirely peaceful. The disclosure severely damaged Iran's credibility in ongoing nuclear negotiations.
Iran and the P5+1 powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in Vienna, capping Iranian uranium enrichment at 3.67% for 15 years in exchange for sweeping sanctions relief. The deal was widely hailed as the most significant nonproliferation achievement in a generation. Under its terms, Iran's breakout time was extended from roughly 2-3 months to at least 12 months.
President Trump announced the United States would withdraw from the JCPOA and reimpose sweeping economic sanctions on Iran, calling the agreement the worst deal ever negotiated. The EU3 — Britain, France, and Germany — and Iran attempted to keep the deal alive, but crippling US secondary sanctions forced European companies to exit Iran within months. The withdrawal ultimately triggered Iran's own incremental breaches of the deal over the following year.
Iran formally breached the JCPOA's 3.67% uranium enrichment cap, announcing it had enriched uranium to 4.5% purity — the first concrete nuclear violation of the agreement since the US withdrawal. Iran framed the breach as a legitimate response to the US maximum pressure campaign and a bargaining tactic to force European parties to deliver on their sanctions-relief promises. The breach marked the beginning of an escalating series of JCPOA violations that would accelerate dramatically in the years ahead.
Iran announced it would begin enriching uranium to 60% purity — a dramatic escalation that brought Iran to a technical threshold just below weapons-grade — following what it described as an Israeli act of nuclear terrorism at the Natanz facility. The jump to 60% was the most significant breach of the JCPOA's limits since the deal was signed, cutting the theoretical breakout timeline to roughly 90 days at the time. The decision alarmed nonproliferation experts who noted that 60% enrichment represents only a modest additional technical step to reach the 90% needed for a weapon.
Iran took the significant step of removing IAEA surveillance cameras and further curtailing inspector access across multiple nuclear facilities, triggering alarms among Western governments and the IAEA board. Director General Rafael Grossi told member states that the agency's visibility into Iran's nuclear activities had become "significantly curtailed," making it impossible to provide credible assurances about the absence of undeclared nuclear activities. The restrictions compounded an already severe monitoring gap caused by Iran's rollback of the Additional Protocol since February 2021.
Iran and Israel exchanged direct military strikes for the first time in history in April 2024, dramatically raising the risk of an Israeli military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and prompting urgent warnings from the IAEA about the vulnerability of nuclear sites. The exchanges — Iran's large-scale drone and missile barrage on April 13-14 followed by an Israeli strike on April 19 — collapsed the longstanding assumption that both sides would keep their conflict in the shadows. Analysts and IAEA officials warned the breakout window had by then shrunk to approximately two weeks.
As of 2026, IAEA assessments estimate that Iran could produce sufficient weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear device in approximately one to two weeks if it made the political decision to do so — the shortest breakout window in the history of the Iranian nuclear crisis. Iran continues to enrich uranium to 60% purity at Natanz and Fordow, with stockpiles far exceeding JCPOA limits and IAEA monitoring remaining severely restricted. No evidence of an Iranian decision to build a nuclear weapon has been confirmed.
Iran uranium enrichment status · JCPOA collapse explained · Iran breakout time estimates. The nuclear file is the single most consequential lever in the Iran security equation — track each development through the IAEA's quarterly Director General reports linked above.
Strait of Hormuz
Daily oil throughput
17–20 million barrels
≈20% of global oil supply, ≈30% of seaborne oil
Vessel transits per day
≈30 supertankers
Plus LNG carriers, container ships
Choke point width
21 nautical miles
Inbound + outbound shipping lanes are 2 nm wide each
Iran navy bases on the strait
Bandar Abbas + Qeshm Island
IRGC small-boat swarm doctrine + ballistic anti-ship missiles
Recent maritime incidents
| Date | Incident | Oil impact | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-14 | Drone and cruise missile strikes attributed to Iran devastated Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities, knocking out roughly 5% of global oil supply overnight. Oil prices surged nearly 15% in a single day — the largest intraday spike in over a decade. | +14.6% | 14d |
| 2019-07-19 | Iran's IRGC Navy seized the UK-flagged tanker Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz, citing maritime violations — widely seen as retaliation for Britain's seizure of the Iranian tanker Grace 1 off Gibraltar weeks earlier. The standoff kept the vessel and its crew detained for 64 days before diplomatic pressure secured their release. | +2.1% | 64d |
| 2020-01-03 | A US drone strike at Baghdad airport killed IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, triggering the most acute Iran-US confrontation in decades. Iran's subsequent ballistic missile barrage against Al-Asad airbase in Iraq briefly pushed oil above $70 a barrel before both sides stepped back from further escalation. | +5.4% | 14d |
| 2024-01-11 | IRGC Navy commandos seized the Greek-managed oil tanker St. Nikolas off the coast of Oman, citing an unresolved cargo dispute linked to US sanctions enforcement against Iranian oil. The seizure added to a pattern of Iranian tanker interdictions that has persisted since 2019. | +1.8% | 30d |
| 2024-04-13 | Iran launched its first-ever direct attack on Israeli territory, firing over 300 drones and ballistic missiles in a retaliatory strike for an Israeli airstrike on its Damascus consulate. Oil prices jumped sharply on fears that Israeli counter-strikes could target Iranian oil infrastructure or trigger a wider regional war. | +8.2% | 21d |
Scenario impact
+5–10% short-term
Days to weeks
IRGC seizes commercial vessels or conducts drone overflights in the strait. Demonstrated repeatedly 2019–2024. War-risk insurance premiums spike but oil flow continues. Most likely escalation step.
+15–30%
Weeks
Iran lays sea mines or strikes commercial tankers with anti-ship missiles. US 5th Fleet + Royal Navy mine-clearing operations follow. Some traffic continues with naval escort. Last attempted 1980s during Iran-Iraq War.
+50–100% spike
Weeks to months
Iran attempts to physically block transit via mass mining, anti-ship missile barrages, and small-boat swarms. Would trigger immediate US-led military response. Has never happened in modern era despite repeated Iranian threats. Low probability but catastrophic impact.
Strait of Hormuz oil flow · Iran navy positions in Persian Gulf · Hormuz tanker insurance war-risk premiums. The Strait carries roughly 20% of global oil supply through a 21-mile-wide chokepoint that Iran has the demonstrated capability to disrupt. Even a tanker-harassment incident moves oil markets by 5–10% within 24 hours.
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About this tracker
As of 2026, Iran is at the center of the Middle East's most volatile conflict network. Direct military exchanges between Iran and Israel escalated beyond proxy warfare, with strikes on each other's territory marking a dangerous new phase. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to operate as Iran's primary instrument of power projection, controlling ballistic missile forces, cyber capabilities, and the network of proxy militias that extends across the region.
Iran's escalation timeline in 2026 includes retaliatory missile barrages, drone operations against Gulf shipping, and intensified proxy activation across multiple theaters. The United States has maintained a significant naval presence in the Persian Gulf, while diplomatic channels through Oman and China have attempted to prevent full-scale war. Track the latest developments on the live conflict map below, and see how events connect to broader patterns on our current wars tracker and global conflict map.
Iran's proxy network — often called the "Axis of Resistance" — is the most extensive state-sponsored militia system in the world. It allows Tehran to project military pressure across five countries without committing conventional forces directly.
Houthis in Yemen have demonstrated the ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Red Sea and launch ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia and Israel, disrupting 12% of global trade. Hezbollah in Lebanon fields an estimated 150,000+ rockets and missiles aimed at Israel, making it the most heavily armed non-state actor on Earth. Shia militias in Iraq have repeatedly attacked U.S. military facilities with drones and rockets. Syrian operations provide a land corridor connecting Iran to Lebanon through Iraqi and Syrian territory. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, while not under direct Iranian command, receive funding, weapons, and training from Tehran.
This proxy architecture allows Iran to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously while maintaining plausible deniability — though the risk of escalation to direct conflict remains ever-present. See escalation pathways on our WW3 risk map.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which approximately 17–20 million barrels of oil per day pass — roughly 20% of global supply. Iran's geographic position gives it the theoretical ability to block or disrupt this critical chokepoint, a capability that functions as Tehran's ultimate deterrent.
Even minor incidents near the strait can trigger significant oil price spikes. The 2019 drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities caused a 15% price surge in a single day. Iran has periodically threatened to close the strait in response to sanctions or military threats, and its navy regularly conducts exercises in the waterway. Mining the strait, harassing tankers, or launching anti-ship missiles at commercial vessels are all within Iran's demonstrated capabilities.
The insurance implications alone are significant — war risk premiums for vessels transiting the strait can increase by 10–50x during escalation periods, adding millions to shipping costs that ultimately pass through to consumer prices. Track oil price movements on our oil prediction page and markets hub.
Iran's nuclear program remains the most consequential security issue in the Middle East. Following the collapse of the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) in 2018, Iran resumed and accelerated uranium enrichment, reaching 60% purity — a short technical step from weapons-grade 90%. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported that its monitoring capabilities have been significantly curtailed since 2023, reducing international visibility into Iran's nuclear activities.
Breakout time estimates — the period needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear device — have shrunk to as little as one to two weeks according to some assessments. An Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities remains a possibility that could trigger a regional war and global energy crisis. Monitor the broader implications on our Doomsday Clock tracker and WW3 risk map.
Iran's geopolitical significance is inseparable from global energy markets. Any military escalation involving Iran immediately impacts oil prices through two channels: the threat to physical supply through the Strait of Hormuz, and the "fear premium" that traders add to crude oil during geopolitical crises.
Beyond oil, Iran tensions affect gold prices (safe-haven demand surges), defense stocks (increased military spending expectations), regional currencies (capital flight from Gulf states), and shipping insurance rates (war risk premiums on tankers). The 2019 Saudi Aramco attack demonstrated that even limited strikes on oil infrastructure can cause 10–15% price spikes within hours.
Track how the Iran conflict is moving markets in real time on our Catalyst platform, which connects geopolitical events to price predictions across 28 global assets including gold, oil, and Bitcoin.
Frequently Asked Questions
Iran is engaged in direct military exchanges with Israel and operates the Middle East's most extensive proxy network — supporting Houthi forces in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq, allied groups in Syria, and Hamas/PIJ in Gaza. While not in a formally declared state of total war, the escalation in 2026 has moved beyond proxy conflict into direct strikes on each other's territory.
Iran's strategic position along the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil supply passes — means any escalation immediately affects prices. Even the threat of disruption adds a "fear premium" to crude oil. A full closure of the strait could remove 17-20 million barrels per day from global supply, potentially doubling oil prices. Track real-time oil price impacts on our Catalyst platform.
Iran's proxy network, known as the "Axis of Resistance," includes Houthi forces in Yemen (Red Sea shipping attacks), Hezbollah in Lebanon (150,000+ missiles aimed at Israel), Shia militias in Iraq (attacks on US bases), allied forces in Syria (land corridor to Lebanon), and Hamas/PIJ in Gaza. These groups allow Iran to project military power across the region without direct conventional engagement.
The Iran conflict involves nuclear-armed powers and critical oil infrastructure, making it one of the most dangerous escalation pathways. An Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities could trigger a regional war involving the Strait of Hormuz. US military involvement would risk drawing in Russia and China, who maintain strategic relationships with Iran. Monitor escalation risk on our WW3 risk map and Doomsday Clock tracker.
Key players include Iran, Israel, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and China. Iran's proxy network extends influence into Lebanon (Hezbollah), Gaza (Hamas/PIJ), Yemen (Houthis), Iraq (Shia militias), and Syria. The EU is involved through nuclear negotiations, and Gulf states like the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar are affected by regional instability.
Iran enriches uranium to 60% purity — a short technical step from weapons-grade 90%. IAEA monitoring has been significantly limited since 2023. Breakout time estimates range from one to two weeks. A nuclear-armed Iran would fundamentally alter Middle Eastern power dynamics and could trigger a regional nuclear arms race involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt.
We aggregate real-time data from conflict monitoring databases, verified news feeds, and military tracking systems. Events are automatically classified by type and severity, then plotted on an interactive 3D globe. Our AI-powered Catalyst platform analyzes how Iran-related developments affect oil prices, gold, defense stocks, and other assets in real time.
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Last updated 5/5/2026, 2:57:56 AM