Ten Vessels Attacked in Strait of Hormuz Since Sunday as Iran Steps Up Campaign in Current Wars in the World

Attacks on merchant vessels in and near the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest daily level since the start of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, with at least ten vessels struck since Sunday and two seafarers reported missing, as part of current wars in the world. [1] Four vessels were struck on Tuesday and six on Sunday, the highest single-day total since the conflict began, according to Vanguard, the IMO and UKMTO. [1] Two seafarers have been reported missing and a container ship reportedly sank as a result of recent attacks, according to the maritime sources. [1]

Recent Surge in Attacks

At least ten vessels have been attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday, a high since war broke out between the United States, Israel and Iran, security data showed Wednesday. [1] Four vessels were struck on Tuesday and six on Sunday -- the highest number of attacks in a single day since the start of the conflict -- according to data from security firm Vanguard, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the British maritime agency UKMTO. [1] Two seafarers have been reported missing and a container ship reportedly sank as a result of recent attacks, according to the maritime sources. [1] Twenty-three attacks have been recorded since the start of October, almost double the average monthly number of incidents since the start of the war. [1] The United States said on Saturday that it had struck a cargo vessel as part of its embargo on Iranian ports, but the incident was not listed by the IMO. [1] Some 24 seafarers have died as a result of incidents in the area near the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict, according to the IMO. [1] The recent uptick in energy exports, which almost returned to pre-war levels at the start of October but have since fallen back, may be behind the latest increase in attacks, according to Vanguard analyst Barun Gupta. [1]

Historical Context of the Campaign

Merchant vessels transiting the vital passage were first targeted by Iran in March in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on its territory, and Tehran has continued to strike vessels passing through the strait via routes it has not approved. [1] Tehran has tried to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28. [3] It has restricted passage through the waterway, which carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the war, in an effort to gain leverage over Washington. [3] Its threats and attacks have severely curtailed traffic through the strait, driving up oil prices, though some oil has continued to transit. [3] Iran is deploying new tactics to target ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz as it seeks to keep oil prices high and influence the U.S. midterm elections, two senior Iranian officials said. [3]

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Impact on Shipping and Energy Markets

The attacks have disrupted shipping through the strait, which is normally one of the busiest routes for exporting oil and other commodities from Gulf countries. [1] Its threats and attacks have severely curtailed traffic through the strait, driving up oil prices, though some oil has continued to transit. [3] Gulf oil flows have been recovering, with traffic through Hormuz recently returning to around 80 percent of pre-war levels despite the conflict. [1] The recent uptick in energy exports, which almost returned to pre-war levels at the start of October but have since fallen back, may be behind the latest increase in attacks, according to Vanguard analyst Barun Gupta. [1] Increasing the tempo of attacks therefore gives Tehran a way of demonstrating that it can still disrupt that recovery and impose costs on commercial shipping and global energy markets, Gupta told AFP on Wednesday. [1]

Iranian Strategic Calculations

Iran is deploying new tactics to target ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz as it seeks to keep oil prices high and influence the U.S. midterm elections, two senior Iranian officials said. [3] Iran's surge in attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may be an attempt to exploit US restraint ahead of the midterm elections and undermine a recovery in Persian Gulf oil shipments, experts told Iran International. [4] He said Trump's promise last week not to launch further attacks on Iran before the midterm elections in the US could also be a factor, giving Tehran a perceived window to increase pressure with a lower immediate risk of US military escalation. [1] Increasing the tempo of attacks therefore gives Tehran a way of demonstrating that it can still disrupt that recovery and impose costs on commercial shipping and global energy markets, Gupta told AFP on Wednesday. [1]

Cumulative Toll and Official Responses

Some 24 seafarers have died as a result of incidents in the area near the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict, according to the IMO. [1] The United States said on Saturday that it had struck a cargo vessel as part of its embargo on Iranian ports, but the incident was not listed by the IMO. [1] At least ten vessels have been attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday, a high since war broke out between the United States, Israel and Iran, security data showed Wednesday. [1] Four vessels were struck on Tuesday and six on Sunday -- the highest number of attacks in a single day since the start of the conflict -- according to data from security firm Vanguard, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the British maritime agency UKMTO. [1] Twenty-three attacks have been recorded since the start of October, almost double the average monthly number of incidents since the start of the war. [1]

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Context Within Current Wars in the World

Merchant vessels transiting the vital passage were first targeted by Iran in March in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on its territory, and Tehran has continued to strike vessels passing through the strait via routes it has not approved. [1] Tehran has tried to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28. [3] It has restricted passage through the waterway, which carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the war, in an effort to gain leverage over Washington. [3] Its threats and attacks have severely curtailed traffic through the strait, driving up oil prices, though some oil has continued to transit. [3] Iran's surge in attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may be an attempt to exploit US restraint ahead of the midterm elections and undermine a recovery in Persian Gulf oil shipments, experts told Iran International. [4]

What to watch next

Analysts link the surge to recovering Gulf oil flows reaching 80 percent of pre-war levels and to Trump's stated restraint on further strikes before US midterm elections, giving Iran a window to increase pressure. [1] [4]