South Korea Tensions Poll Shows 75 Percent Back US Tactical Nuclear Return
A new South Korean opinion survey shows 75.1% public support for redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons amid growing doubts about the credibility of US extended deterrence against North Korea's nuclear threat, as President Lee Jae-myung pursues a peace initiative with China while the US scales back joint military drills amid South Korea tensions.
Survey Reveals Strong Support for Tactical Nuclear Redeployment
An August 11 survey by the Reform Institute found 75.1% support for redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons, with even higher backing among those in their 20s at 88.4% and those in their 30s at 86.3%. [1] When asked for the top priority on the North Korean nuclear threat, 36.3% chose strengthening the US nuclear umbrella and missile defense, ahead of indigenous nuclear weapons at 26.9%, tactical redeployment at 16.9%, or diplomacy at 16.8%. [1] The United States deployed nuclear weapons in South Korea from 1958 to 1991, with the number reaching approximately 950 warheads during its peak. [1] Their withdrawal came as part of President George H.W. Bush’s global Presidential Nuclear Initiatives. [1] North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, developed increasingly sophisticated delivery systems and adopted nuclear doctrine allowing preemptive and, under some circumstances, automatic nuclear use. [1]
Doubts Over US Extended Deterrence Credibility
Respondents were split almost evenly on whether the US would retaliate with nuclear weapons against a North Korean nuclear attack on South Korea if it risked the American homeland, with 41.8% saying yes and 41.7% saying no. [1] Pyongyang has also abandoned its longstanding characterization of relations with South Korea as a temporary division within one nation and now defines the South as a hostile separate state. [1] The US Defense Department’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review identified the risk that an adversary might believe it could conduct limited nuclear use without triggering a credible American response. [1] Washington already possesses the W76-2 low-yield submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead and is developing the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile, or SLCM-N. [1] The two governments already created an institution designed to address precisely this problem in the US-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group. [1]
Lee's Peace Initiative in Focus During Wang Yi Visit
President Lee Jae-myung will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss his proposal for multiparty talks to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War and establish a peace regime. [2] Lee and Wang are expected to discuss the future of South Korea-China relations and regional developments, with Lee also conveying greetings to Chinese President Xi Jinping. [2] In his Liberation Day address last week, Lee proposed discussions among the parties concerned to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, pledging to work toward replacing what he called the peninsula’s “unstable armistice system” with a peace regime. [2] Wang, who also serves as director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, is effectively China’s top foreign policy official. [2] The timing of Wang’s meeting with Lee has drawn further attention as Trump makes a fresh push to engage Kim. [2]
US Scales Back Joint Military Drills With South Korea
The US has scaled back the ongoing Ulchi Freedom Shield joint military exercises with South Korea at President Trump's direction, with South Korea's foreign minister stating Seoul was not notified in advance. [3] Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said the government had not been informed in advance of U.S. President Donald Trump's directive to scale back combined military exercises. [3] "Neither our government nor U.S. officials knew what President Trump wrote on his Truth Social," Cho told the National Assembly Committee on Foreign Affairs and Unification. [3] The military exercises between the US and South Korea, which began on Monday, are being significantly reduced, with South Korea’s top military command confirming that the joint exercises will conclude this Friday instead of Thursday, August 27. [4] The first phase of the exercise will be completed, while the second phase is canceled or postponed. [4]
What to watch next: US officials including Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby have discussed providing more flexible low-yield nuclear options for regional contingencies, reopening debate on adapting extended deterrence to North Korea's changed nuclear posture, while Trump signals renewed dialogue with North Korea during his planned trip to China for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.
