Most dangerous countries see Houthi gains choke Red Sea oil routes

Saudi Arabia is fighting a two-front war in the most dangerous countries against Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen who have seized key Red Sea territory and attacked Saudi oil infrastructure and cities, disrupting global oil supplies and driving Brent crude above $100 a barrel.

Houthi advances in most dangerous countries threaten Red Sea shipping

Houthi forces have taken the port of Mocha and strategic islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, tightening their grip on a critical shipping chokepoint and threatening Saudi oil exports routed through Yanbu. [4] The strait is an important chokepoint along the sea route that connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Indian Ocean. [4] With the on-and-off closure of the Strait of Hormuz this year, it has offered a critical alternate route for oil, liquefied natural gas, and other goods leaving or transiting the region. [4] Saudi Arabia, in particular, has diverted up to 64% of its oil exports via an overland east-west pipeline, transporting oil to its Yanbu Port on the Red Sea and shipping it out through Bab el-Mandeb. [4] From the strategic position of Mocha, just 75 kilometres north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Houthi rebels can disrupt and effectively control global shipping in and out of the strait. [4] Maritime traffic can be quickly ground to a halt, using light, asymmetric means such as drones, anti-ship missiles and fast attack boats. [4] The Houthis have said their direct targets are Saudi Arabian vessels and Saudi oil. [4] But countries across Europe, Asia and Africa rely on goods moving out of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. [4]

Saudi oil infrastructure under attack

A drone attack from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq disabled Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, with repairs expected to take weeks and potentially cutting 4% of global oil supply. [2] The East-West Pipeline is disabled because of a drone attack from Iran-aligned militias in Iraq. [1] Traders say a prolonged closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could cut off as much as 4% of global oil supply. [2] The price of Brent crude hovered around $108 a barrel on Wednesday, close to its highest levels since May. [2] But oil prices fell in early Thursday trade as reports of Saudi Arabia offering extra crude cargoes through Oman reduced fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. [2] Brent crude futures dropped $1.24, or 1.2%, to $104.59 a barrel by 0049 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down $1.14, or 1.1%, at $101.29. [2] The politically sensitive average retail price of diesel fuel in the U.S. hit another all-time high, above $6.30 a gallon for the first time. [2] Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group had launched fresh drone and missile strikes on the major Saudi Red Sea oil port of Yanbu and at a southern Saudi airbase at Khamis Mushait. [2]

Escalating two-front war and air strikes

Houthi missiles and drones have struck Saudi cities, including a drone intercepted over Mecca, prompting Saudi air strikes on Yemen that have reached 450 this week. [1] A Houthi drone was even shot down over Mecca, the holiest city in Islam, whose custodianship is a point of legitimacy for the House of Saud. [1] The Houthis have denied targeting Mecca. [1] Saudi Arabia now faces a two-front war. [1] The conflict had largely quietened under a ceasefire in recent years, but reignited when the Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia in July and fired at southern areas in the kingdom. [2] The Houthis on Wednesday released battlefield video of fighters seizing armoured vehicles from Saudi-backed forces. [2] The video also showed warplanes flying overhead and huge explosions billowing into the sky from desert dunes. [2] Officials in the Saudi-backed government that controls southern Yemen have acknowledged that their forces and those of Saudi Arabia were conducting air strikes on Houthi positions, though Riyadh has not confirmed them. [2] Saudi Arabia has led a coalition battling the Houthis since 2015. [2]

Saudi appeals for allied air defenses

Saudi Arabia is running low on missile interceptors and has asked France, Britain, Pakistan and Egypt for air-defense support after the US stockpile has dwindled in the six-month Iran war. [5] The officials said the Saudis have asked France, Britain, Pakistan and Egypt to deploy air-defense support to the region to help defend against missiles and drones fired by Houthis and other Iran-backed groups. [5] The outreach was initiated because Saudi Arabia's main ally and arms supplier, the United States, has seen its own stock of interceptors dwindle over the course of a six-month war with Iran, one official said. [5] One of the regional officials said Saudi Arabia is in a "very difficult position," since it has to protect not only its military bases and vital government installations, but also oil facilities across the kingdom. [5] The second official said Saudi Arabia is also seeking to rally its international allies to launch a collective response against the Houthis. [5] "But the decision now is to give diplomacy a chance," the official said, adding that Oman and Egypt are leading efforts for de-escalation in Yemen. [5] Last weekend, Oman hosted a meeting between US and Houthi representatives to discuss the regional tensions, said two people familiar with the matter, including a Houthi official. [5]

Al-Shabab resurgence in Somalia

Al-Shabab has regained territory in Somalia and remains stronger than ever despite two decades of AU peacekeeping and billions in US funding, with foreign forces now withdrawing. [3] The al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabab has regained significant territory in Somalia despite two decades of African Union-led military interventions and billions of dollars in international support. [3] The United States has provided an estimated $3.6 billion since 2007 to support successive African Union peacekeeping missions in Somalia, including nearly $2 billion through United Nations support offices and about $1.6 billion in bilateral assistance to troop-contributing countries. [3] AU forces have pushed Al-Shabab out of major urban centres, including Mogadishu, but the group continues to control or influence large areas of rural southern and central Somalia, where it has established parallel judicial and taxation systems. [3] Al-Shabab raises an estimated $100 million to $150 million annually through taxation, while Somalia's government collects slightly more than $250 million. [3] Al-Shabab has since retaken much of the territory it lost during Somalia's 2022-2023 military campaign. [3] During a 2025 counteroffensive, the group advanced to within about 45 kilometres of Mogadishu. [3] As foreign forces begin withdrawing, analysts cited by the magazine have warned that Al-Shabab could exploit security vacuums, while uncertainty remains over whether Somali forces are prepared to assume full responsibility for national security. [3]

Trump comments and global oil impact

Trump hopes the Iran war is nearing an end, his expectation Iran wants a deal, elevated diesel prices in the US and potential European involvement if Bab el-Mandeb closes. [2] President Donald Trump said he hoped an end to the war against Iran was near, as the conflict, in its seventh month, escalated with Saudi aircraft pounding Yemen and Houthi fighters launching drones and missiles at Saudi cities. [2] Trump also said he had heard from Iran “directly”, without elaborating. [2] The extension of the war into Yemen threatens to worsen the global energy-supply shortage caused by the war, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. [2] The strait carried about 20% of global oil and LNG before the conflict. [2] The rise in oil and gas prices due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has become a major issue for Trump’s Republican Party in the lead-up to November midterm elections. [2] Axios reported late on Wednesday that Trump was expected to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday to discuss the next steps in the conflict. [2] With Bab el-Mandeb looking increasingly dangerous, countries in the region are likely to redouble efforts on constructing road and rail routes to transport goods out of the region. [4] Europe may be drawn into the fight if a full closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait occurs. [4]

What to watch next: Whether or not the crisis escalates will depend largely on Saudi and Houthi actions in coming weeks, including if Saudi Arabia returns to an all-out bombing campaign that would break the 2022 truce, and to what extent the Houthis will use their new strategic advantage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to target vessels.