Most Dangerous Countries Face New Escalation After Houthi Capture of Yemen Port
Houthi rebels' capture of Yemen's Mocha port and nearby Red Sea islands on 10 September has escalated the civil war, prompting Saudi accusations of a drone attack toward Mecca and raising fears of wider regional instability affecting global shipping, oil prices, and East Africa in most dangerous countries.
Houthi Capture of Mocha Shifts Yemen Conflict
Houthi forces captured the strategic city of Mocha, as well as the nearby Hanish Islands and the island of Perim in the Red Sea, on 10 September, marking a turning point in the rebel group’s war in Yemen [1]. Their gain also opens a new frontier for Iran, the Houthis' biggest outside supporter, as it gains a foothold in another important maritime chokepoint [1]. Mocha lies just north of the Bab el-Mandab Strait, the gateway between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden [1]. Saudi Arabia has accused the rebels of firing a drone towards the holy city of Mecca – a target Saudi officials say is a "red line" [1]. Analysts warn the Houthis' territorial gains could open a new and dangerous chapter in Yemen's civil war, with consequences felt as far away as East Africa [1]. Yemen's civil war had been at a stalemate since 2022, when the government and the Houthi movement agreed a ceasefire without reaching a political settlement [1]. Then, in July this year, the government's Saudi-led allies struck Sanaa International Airport to prevent an Iranian plane carrying senior Houthi officials from landing [1]. "The Houthis have used the period of relative calm to strengthen their military capabilities and expand their regional role," Al-Dawsari told RFI [1].
Impact on Global Shipping and Economy
Control of the Bab el-Mandab Strait allows the Houthis to threaten or pressure ships using the Red Sea route [1]. "They feel they have strangled the global economy and want to have that leverage on the world whenever they need to use it," Baraa Shiban, a researcher focusing on Yemen and the Gulf at the Royal United Services Institute in London, told RFI [1]. Egypt and Saudi Arabia met on Tuesday to discuss the latest escalation [1]. Both Riyadh and Cairo called for "ensuring the freedom and security of maritime navigation" through the straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab [1]. The Houthis said navigation was "safe" for everyone except Saudi Arabia [1].
Regional Pressure on Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia, which heads the military coalition against the Houthis in Yemen, is now feeling pressure from multiple directions [1]. Iran is beginning to unveil the depth of the regional networks it has built over decades, Al-Dawsari said [1]. Drones launched from Iraq by suspected Iran-backed groups damaged Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline last Thursday, forcing it to shut down [1]. That alone has pushed global oil prices above the $100-a-barrel threshold [1]. When the Houthis began to emerge as a rising force in Yemen in the early 2000s, Riyadh responded to international pressure to de-escalate, culminating in the United Nations-mediated Stockholm Agreement in 2018 [1]. Faced once again with the threat of the Houthis at its doorstep, Saudi Arabia is "trying to build US and broader international support for a response to a threat that is no longer [just] a Saudi or Yemeni problem", Al-Dawsari said [1]. What remains unclear is whether the US is willing to engage in the conflict on a regional level, given that it is seeking to close the door on the war it began in February with Iran [1]. As Shiban put it: "The war in Yemen is a new front for the Iran war" [1].
Risk of Spillover to East Africa
With the capture of Mocha, the Houthis have shown they are seeking to claim as much territory as possible, Shiban said: "They feel they have a right to control all of Yemen" [1]. Geographically, control of the Bab el-Mandab Strait brings the Houthis closer to East Africa, particularly Djibouti and Eritrea, with Somalia further south [1]. UN experts have reported ties between the Houthis, a Shia Islamist movement, and the Somali Islamist group Al-Shabaab, which is Sunni, including alleged weapons transfers [1]. According to a recent study by the Aden-based Anaween Center for Research and Transformation Studies, cooperation between the two groups has "evolved from traditional smuggling networks to intelligence coordination and mutual military training, despite ideological differences" [1]. A humanitarian crisis is also looming [1]. Around 100,000 people have been internally displaced by the renewed fighting, the UN reported this week, with thousands more fleeing by sea to Djibouti [1]. The UN's refugee agency said more than 2,000 Yemenis had arrived in Obock, in northern Djibouti, in the past week [1].
Parallel Crises in Most Dangerous Countries: Sudan, Congo and Gaza
OCHA warns that drone attacks and other hostilities continue to take a heavy toll on civilians and critical infrastructure across Sudan [2]. In South Kordofan State, local sources report that 13 civilians were killed and several others injured when a drone struck a commercial truck in Al-Kewaik village along the road between the state capital Kadugli and the town of Dilling last Friday [2]. Critical infrastructure also continues to come under attack [2]. Yesterday, drones were reportedly intercepted near the Siteet and El Girba dam power stations in Gedaref and Kassala states, before causing any damage [2]. The latest incidents come just days after six civilians were reportedly killed when multiple drone strikes hit petrol stations in Ed Damazine, the capital of Blue Nile State [2]. The strikes have also caused severe fuel shortages in the city [2]. OCHA says that ongoing violence in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo continues to drive displacement and complicate efforts to respond to the Ebola outbreak [2]. In the province of Ituri, local sources indicate that at least 60 civilians have been killed in attacks in Mambasa Territory since the start of the month, triggering fresh displacement [2]. In the neighbouring province of South Kivu, humanitarian partners report that clashes in Fizi Territory have displaced more than 40,000 people since July [2]. In North Kivu, active fighting in parts of the province continues to force families to flee their homes [2]. These developments are unfolding in areas affected by Ebola, where insecurity and population movements continue to hamper surveillance and response efforts [2]. As of 14 September, national health authorities had reported more than 7,300 confirmed cases and over 3,500 deaths [2]. The UN, partners mobilize support for survivors of Gaza building collapse [2]. The Humanitarian Coordinator for the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Dr. Ramiz Alakbarov, said in a statement that he was devastated by reports of people trapped under the rubble following the collapse of a war-damaged residential building in Gaza city before dawn today [2]. Search and rescue efforts were led by the Civil Defence and supported by Egypt and teams from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which quickly mobilized excavators, wheel loaders and dump trucks to the site [2]. The Civil Defence reported that its teams had retrieved 21 bodies and rescued dozens of people with injuries [2]. Dozens more had been helped out of the area overnight shortly before the collapse, when the building started cracking [2]. Local health authorities say that among those killed are 12 children [2]. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and its partners visited the site today to assess the situation and mobilize a rapid response to support survivors [2].
Humanitarian Toll and Calls for Access
Around 100,000 people have been internally displaced by the renewed fighting in Yemen, the UN reported this week, with thousands more fleeing by sea to Djibouti [1]. Despite the ongoing insecurity, as well as funding challenges, the UN and its humanitarian partners continue to provide critical assistance to people in need across Sudan [2]. To support newly displaced families, the International Organization for Migration recently distributed 2,000 hygiene kits to displaced people in North Kordofan and White Nile states [2]. The assistance was supported by the Sudan Humanitarian Fund, which is managed by OCHA [2]. OCHA again calls on all parties to protect civilians and ensure safe, sustained and unhindered humanitarian access [2]. Maintaining access to communities in need is essential to delivering life-saving assistance, supporting public health interventions, and bringing the outbreak under control [2]. In his statement, Dr. Alakbarov called for the urgent approval of the entry into Gaza of heavy machinery, specialized equipment, engine oil and fuel [2]. He also stressed that tents, tarpaulins and other non-food items must reach the most vulnerable communities in the coming weeks [2]. In a social media post, UNDP called for sustained access to construction materials and transitional shelters to address unsafe buildings, manage debris, and provide safer alternatives for families [2]. The agency said that 330,000 families in Gaza need dignified shelter, calling for swift action “before the next emergency” [2]. OCHA also urges donors to provide additional funding for the humanitarian response [2]. This year’s humanitarian appeal for Sudan is 42 per cent funded, with US$1.2 billion received against the $2.9 billion required [2].
What to watch next: Analysts note that the strongest regional response to the Houthis may have to come from Saudi Arabia, though Riyadh has sought to avoid being dragged back into a costly war, while the Yemeni army has struggled to keep its forces intact and equipped amid a lack of coordination between different factions within the government [1].
