Iran War Will End Fairly Soon Says Trump as He Reports Supreme Leader Seriously Wounded
US President Donald Trump stated that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but very seriously wounded, while claiming the Iran war will end fairly soon and that the Strait of Hormuz remains open with significant oil transit. [2]
The Six-Month US-Israeli War on Iran
The conflict is a six-month US-Israeli war on Iran that began on 28 February. [4] Airspace restrictions over Iran and Iraq have been in place since the outbreak. [4] These restrictions have affected flight routes across the region. [4] The war has also involved Israeli-American aggression against Iran. [3] Conditions in the region have been described as capable of being kept under control for a period but not forever. [3]
Trump's Assessment of Iran's Leadership and War Outlook
US President Donald Trump stated that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but very seriously wounded. [2] Trump also claimed the Iran war will end fairly soon. [2] In addition, Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open with 10 million barrels of oil having transited the waterway on Tuesday. [2] These remarks come as part of Trump's assessment of the situation involving Iran's leadership and the broader conflict. [2]
US Congressional View on Ending the Conflict
Rep. Dan Meuser told Newsmax that Americans are increasingly frustrated with the length of the war with Iran. [1] The Pennsylvania Republican said President Donald Trump can bring the conflict to an end without committing massive U.S. military force. [1] Meuser made these comments on Newsmax Wednesday during an appearance on the program Wake Up. [1] The remarks reflect a view that the president has options to conclude the fighting short of large-scale troop commitments. [1]
US President Donald Trump states that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but very seriously wounded. — Source: anadolu
Impact on Gulf Aviation and Regional Connectivity
After six months of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Gulf's major aviation hubs are navigating turbulence as a hefty portion of their lucrative transit traffic opts for other airports such as Istanbul. [4] Between April and June, business for Middle Eastern airlines measured by passenger kilometres was down 30 percent, with that figure down close to 50 percent on routes to Europe according to the International Air Transport Association. [4] In Dubai the number of flight seats scheduled was down 15 percent year on year in August, the biggest drop among the world's top 10 airports according to aviation data specialist OAG. [4] As recently as last year nearly one in six connecting passengers worldwide passed through the Middle East. [4] These travellers represented nearly half of all traffic through Dubai and the UAE capital Abu Dhabi and almost three-quarters of traffic through the Qatari capital Doha. [4] Since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran on 28 February airspace restrictions over Iran and Iraq have taken a toll. [4] Risk-averse European carriers have cut services to the region making Turkish Airlines the big winner according to Paul Chiambaretto an air transport specialist at France's Montpellier Business School. [4] With Russian airspace also off limits to many Western airlines Istanbul's strategic location has made it a desirable alternative to Gulf hubs placing it at the global centre of gravity for air transport Chiambaretto said. [4] Istanbul is able to connect Europe to Asia with only a slight detour he added. [4] Turkish Airlines customer base is up five percent since the start of the conflict with a decrease in capacity on Middle East flights offset by a six percent bump on routes to Europe and a 16 percent rise for East Asia. [4] The national carrier has been expanding strongly for several years offers a very good product and relies on a modern airport Chiambaretto said. [4] In July Istanbul's main airport even overtook London Heathrow with more than eight million travellers. [4] The question is whether passengers will return to the Gulf once the situation stabilises. [4] Early last month IATA was still describing the diversion of traffic as likely a temporary phenomenon. [4] But the longer the conflict lasts the greater the risk that these new aviation habits will become entrenched. [4] This crisis which initially seemed purely cyclical is starting to become increasingly structural warned Chiambaretto. [4] The Gulf airlines are trying to regain ground. [4] Early this month Emirates said it had restored 92 percent of capacity that had been planned before the war while Qatar Airways claimed in mid-June to have brought back 85 percent of its network. [4] UAE carrier Etihad was holding up even better this month it was the only one of the three major Gulf carriers to increase its capacity year on year doing so by 9 percent. [4]
Regional Instability and Isolation of Israel
The region is like a powder keg German warned as conditions can be kept under control for a period but not forever. [3] The main driving factor according to British activist Lindsey German are two wars the Israeli war against the Palestinians with Western support and the Israeli-American war against Iran. [3] German believes Trump has all kinds of plans for what he will do with Gaza and the Middle East but they have not materialised as he tried to force Palestinians to go somewhere but they do not want that. [3] Because of this resilience German believes Palestinians remain a huge challenge to the ambitions of Trump and Israel. [3] German highlighted how Israeli officials at various levels speak of the Greater Israel project which Trump supports and his ambassador to Tel Aviv Mike Huckabee promotes and seeks to seize land from Arab countries neighbouring Palestine and beyond. [3] She opined that no decisive practical position has been issued by the governments of the Arab countries threatened by the project because they have strategic relations with the United States and Britain through arms deals and economic interests which limits their ability to adopt independent positions towards Israel. [3] German argued that Israel's plans pose a threat to the Arab regimes themselves requiring political and economic action to curb Israel's expansion by imposing an international boycott on it because of what it is committing in terms of crimes. [3] German frequently drew comparisons between Israel and Russia noting that if another country had done what Israel has done we would have seen a broad international reaction as happened with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. [3] She stressed that the Israeli-American aggression against Iran as an additional factor reinforcing the failure of Israel and America. [3] In her view Iran has proved that any resistance to the United States actually has an echo and receives a degree of support in the Middle East. [3] Although she sees it as extremely difficult to predict accurately what will happen she expects that the result of the war will undoubtedly be great disruption and instability. [3] The Stop the War Coalition coordinator cites the case of the Abraham Accords normalisation with Israel as another example of the impact of Israel's genocidal war on Gaza and the war on Iran in thwarting US efforts to impose Israel's presence and close the chapter on the Palestinian cause. [3] However she stressed that there is no doubt that Iran has stopped this now because the efforts for the Abraham Accords have effectively died and she does not see any possibility of reviving them. [3] She reiterated that credit for this outcome goes to Iran's resistance to the aggressive war which made it impossible for normalisation to continue. [3] Israel's position in the world after its crimes in the Palestinian territories strengthens Iran's position and weakens the chances of reviving the project to get rid of the Palestinians German argued. [3] It is a state according to her that has now become more isolated than at any time since its founding its popularity has declined and its isolation has increased even in the United States which has historically been Israel's strongest supporter. [3] This support is declining significantly even among Jews particularly young people. [3]
Lindsey German of Stop the War says Israel is more isolated than ever. — Source: thenewarab
Damage to US Standing in the Middle East
America's position in Mideast has been deeply damaged by the war with Iran according to an expert. [5] The assessment highlights the consequences of the ongoing conflict for American influence in the region. [5]
What to watch next is whether the diversion of traffic from Gulf hubs becomes entrenched as a structural change or whether passengers return once the situation stabilises and whether the result of the war produces great disruption and instability as expected. [4] [3]
