Iran Plans Attacks on Gulf Undersea Cables if US or Israel Strike Again: Most Dangerous Countries Focus
Iran has drawn up detailed plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if the United States and Israel resume attacks, according to senior Iranian security officials, amid concerns that such moves could further destabilize the most dangerous countries in the region. [1] Iranian officials warned that undersea cables could become targets in any renewed conflict if diplomacy with Washington collapses, with one stating there will be no more red lines from cables to military bases. [2]
Iran's Plans to Target Undersea Cables
Tehran has drawn up detailed plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if the United States and Israel attack Iran again, two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters. [1] Their comments followed warnings by Iranian officials that undersea cables in the region could become targets in any renewed conflict if diplomacy with Washington collapses. [3] The two Iranian security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, gave few details and did not say how or where exactly Tehran would carry out such attacks. [2] But one of them said Iran would aim to prevent repairs after any attacks to prolong disruptions to communications, including internet connections. [1] "If Iran is attacked, there will be no more red lines ... from undersea cables to military bases, including covert ones," one of the officials said. [3] The official warned Washington not to "play with fire", and said Iran had full access to the undersea cables and could easily destroy them. [2] The plans for possible attacks on undersea cables reflect a conviction in Iran's leadership that a renewed US military campaign would have to be met with a stronger response than before. [1]
Specific Threats and Targets in Most Dangerous Countries
Yadollah Javani, the deputy head of political affairs for Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), said on Wednesday that Iran could target seven major internet cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz if Iranian infrastructure came under attack. [1] Top security official Mohsen Rezaei warned this month that US-linked digital infrastructure across the Gulf, including data centres and AI facilities, could be targeted in a renewed conflict. [2] Washington's Gulf allies have invested heavily in such infrastructure and they "should hold Washington, not Tehran, responsible for any damage to undersea cables," the second Iranian security official said. [3] Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said such threats were intended to deter renewed conflict and put pressure on Washington by making Gulf governments and US companies fear for their investments in the region. [1] "Tehran wants Gulf states and corporate executives to press (US President Donald) Trump over the risks his policies pose to their investment plans," said Vatanka. [2] Iranian strikes directly hit two Amazon Web Services facilities in the UAE in March and damaged infrastructure near one of its facilities in Bahrain. [3] The IRGC named US tech companies including Microsoft, Google, Apple and Nvidia as legitimate targets at the height of the war in March. [1]
Iranian officials warn of plans to target Gulf undersea cables in retaliation for potential US or Israeli strikes. — Source: jerusalempost
Potential Impact on Global Internet and Economy
Undersea cables carry around 99% of global internet traffic, according to the International Telecommunication Union, a UN agency. [2] But the global impact of such attacks by Iran could be limited as less than 1% of international bandwidth passes through the Strait of Hormuz, said Alan Mauldin, research director at telecommunications research firm TeleGeography. [1] The strait separates Iran and Oman, linking the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. [3] Multiple cable cuts could slow internet services and disrupt financial transactions, e-commerce and cloud computing, analysts said. [2] The impact would depend on how operators rerouted traffic and the capacity available on alternative connections, Mauldin said. [1] Restoring connections during wartime could be difficult, experts said, and higher insurance costs and delays in obtaining permits to enter territorial waters could further complicate repairs. [3] The Red Sea could offer a more significant target than the Strait of Hormuz, particularly if Iran had support from its Houthi allies in Yemen, though Tehran has made no public statement indicating it plans to target cables there. [2] The Red Sea carries data between Europe, East Africa and Asia, with capacity routed through it accounting for about 3% of global international demand and around 10% of traffic travelling between regions, Mauldin said. [1]
Context of Renewed Conflict Fears
The US Department of State and Iran's Foreign Ministry did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment on the Iranian security officials' remarks. [3] There was no immediate comment from Gulf states. [2] Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned on Friday that a new attack on Iran would further spread war and conflict across the region. [4] "Military intervention in Iran is by no means a solution. No one supports this at the moment," Hakan Fidan told reporters after an R4+E3 meeting in Istanbul. [4] The war that began in late February has yet to be settled despite a ceasefire and a memorandum of understanding to finalize a peace deal. [4] The US and Israel are said to have developed plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections. [4]
Oil Market Reaction and Regional Tensions
Oil prices rose on Friday as fears of renewed US strikes on Iran and escalating regional tensions heightened supply concerns, pushing Brent crude to its highest level since June 2022. [5] International benchmark Brent climbed 2.7%, or $3.06, to $116.20 per barrel as of 1350GMT, surpassing the peak recorded at the start of the war. [5] US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced 3.04%, or $3.02, to $102.50 per barrel, its highest level in five weeks. [5] President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US may carry out further strikes on Iran. [5] "This should have been done a long time ago by other presidents, the Iran war, and we’ve knocked the hell out of them, and we may do it a little bit further," he said. [5] Regional tensions have also intensified as Yemen’s Houthis continue attacks on Saudi Arabia, raising concerns about risks to energy infrastructure. [5] The US State Department ordered non-essential personnel to leave Saudi Arabia. [5]
Gulf Investments and Resilience Efforts
Gulf governments have been investing heavily in technology to diversify beyond oil and become global artificial intelligence hubs, deepening ties with US technology firms. [1] Land-based connections can provide alternative routes for internet traffic, and Gulf states and US technology companies are investing in additional infrastructure to improve resilience. [2] Microsoft plans to invest more than $400 million in subsea and terrestrial connectivity across the Middle East by 2030. [3]
What to watch next: Turkish warnings indicate that any new military intervention in Iran could escalate regional conflict further, while oil prices may continue to respond to expectations of renewed US strikes after midterm elections and ongoing navigation issues in the Strait of Hormuz.
