Hamas Views Survival in Three-Year Gaza War as Victory, Israeli Intelligence Reports
Hamas Assessment of the Gaza Conflict
Israeli intelligence presented to senior political and defense leadership, including the prime minister and defense minister, indicates that Hamas leadership views its ability to withstand the IDF over the past three years as a form of victory. [1] Hamas considers Israel's control of approximately 70% of the Gaza Strip as temporary. [1] A senior security official stated that Hamas is convinced US President Donald Trump's points-based plan for the Gaza Strip, which his son-in-law Kushner is advancing and which includes economic development involving tens of billions of dollars in investment, represents a direct continuation of Sheik Ahmed Yassin's vision from 1999. [1] The official noted that Hamas believes in this vision even if it is delayed. [1] The same official added that Hamas tells itself it has not been defeated by launching an attack with men wearing beards, jalabiyas, and flip-flops and through steadfast resistance against the IDF after three years, an outcome no other Arab army in the Middle East has achieved. [1]
Hamas Preparations for IDF Offensive
Hamas is preparing for a possible IDF ground maneuver toward Gaza City despite tensions between the organization's local leadership and Khalil al-Hayya in Qatar. [1] The group is working around the clock on recruitment of operatives, distribution of weapons, digging of defensive tunnels, manufacturing of explosive devices, production of short-range projectiles, and preparation of surprises. [1] 
Hamas fighters in Gaza maintain resistance against IDF operations three years after October 7. — Source: iraninternational
Israeli Military and Intelligence Operations
The IDF Southern Command, Military Intelligence Directorate, Israel Air Force, and Shin Bet have stepped up the pace of targeted killings of terrorists who participated in the October 7 attacks as well as operatives preparing to carry out attacks or establish terrorist infrastructure. [1] These operations aim to increase pressure on Hamas and disrupt efforts to rebuild its military wing. [1]
Anticipated IDF Ground Maneuver
Because Hamas leadership refuses to disarm or hand over control of the Gaza Strip to an alternative governing authority, the IDF is preparing for a scenario involving mass movement of civilians and a ground maneuver into the heart of Gaza City. [1] The objective is to dismantle terrorist infrastructure and destroy the battalions of Hamas's military wing that retain a high level of operational readiness. [1] A senior official assessed that such a ground maneuver would ultimately be unavoidable. [1] An assessment within Israel's defense establishment holds that a decision on the issue will be made after the elections in Israel. [1] {IMAGE_3}
Yassin's Vision and Hamas Ideology
Ahmed Yassin, the founder and leader of Hamas who was killed in an Israeli targeted strike in 2004, described Israel as a temporary entity destined to disappear completely from the map and be replaced by an Islamic state throughout the entire Land of Israel. [1] In a 1999 interview with Al Jazeera, Yassin claimed the State of Israel would cease to exist by 2027 or by 2028 at the latest. [1] His prediction rested on a theory of 40-year periods divided into stages, beginning with the generation of the Nakba from 1948 until the 1980s, followed by the generation of resistance that began the armed struggle against Israel, and culminating in the final generation that would bring Hamas's victory, Israel's collapse, and an Islamic state on its territory. [1]
Regional Context Including Iran Conflict
The war between the US and Israel and Iran began in February 2026 when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran under Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, which aimed to create conditions for regime change. [2] Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike on a bunker in Tehran, and Iran's defense minister and several IRGC generals were also killed in what became the IAF's largest-ever aerial operation. [2] Iran retaliated with missile attacks across the Middle East targeting Gulf states and US military bases. [2] Ballistic missile attacks on Israel since February 28 have killed 39 IDF soldiers and 23 civilians while injuring at least 7,693 others, and CENTCOM reported that 18 US soldiers were also killed. [2] A ceasefire was announced on April 7 and took effect the following day. [2] Israel assassinated Iran's navy chief Alireza Tangsiri over fears he could lead a more dangerous IRGC. [2] Three years after October 7, Iran faces a weakened network of regional allies, direct military confrontation, and mounting economic pressure that has upended its long-held strategy. [3]
What to watch next: Assessments within Israel's defense establishment indicate a decision on a ground maneuver into Gaza City will be made after the elections in Israel, while the effects of the April ceasefire with Iran continue to shape regional developments.
