Ethiopian Forces Recapture Tigray Capital as Eritrea Trade War Accusations

Ethiopian federal forces and allies have recaptured the Tigray regional capital Mekelle and other cities after the Tigray People's Liberation Front withdrew, as Ethiopia and Eritrea traded accusations of starting a war of aggression that risks escalating into a regional conflict.

Rebel Withdrawal from Mekelle and Government Push to Restore Order

Ethiopian federal police fanned out across the regional capital of Tigray after antigovernment forces pulled out, calling on residents over loudspeakers to help establish a new administration following the rebels' withdrawal. [1] Over the weekend, government-allied forces moved into position after the Tigray People's Liberation Front left the city. [1] Federal police urged residents in Mekelle to assist in restoring order and setting up a fresh local administration. [1] Witnesses reported that the rebels had also lost the cities of Shire and Adigrat in Tigray. [2] An aid worker in Shire said TPLF fighters and the local administration departed on Wednesday, leaving looters operating in the city where four people were killed and 11 injured in gunfire tied to the looting. [2] Pro-government forces had not yet entered Shire at the time of the reports. [2] Ethiopian Airlines stated that flights to Mekelle would resume from October 11. [2]

Mutual Accusations Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

Ethiopia and Eritrea each accused the other of starting a war of aggression on Friday as the internal Ethiopian conflict threatened to escalate into a regional war. [2] Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of backing rebels in its northern Tigray state who launched attacks against federal forces last month. [2] The two countries severed diplomatic relations. [2] Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos wrote in a letter to diplomats that Eritrea's conduct is "a blatant act of aggression that engages Ethiopia's inherent right to self-defence". [2] Eritrea's information minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, responded on X that the country was facing "an unprovoked war of aggression" from Ethiopia. [2] Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 and fought a border war from 1998 to 2000. [2] Relations improved after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took power in 2018, but deteriorated after the 2020-2022 civil war. [2] Eritrea has expressed anger over the way that war concluded and fears an Ethiopian invasion. [2] Landlocked Ethiopia has repeatedly insisted on a right to direct sea access, which Eritrea interprets as a threat to invade and seize its port at Assab. [2] The Eritrean information minister stated that "the hysterical infatuation with the Red Sea must also be seen with previous intentions to wage a war of invasion against Eritrea". [2]

Ethiopian federal forces retake control of Mekelle after Tigray rebels withdraw from the regional capital. — Source: france24

Military Developments and Eritrean Troop Involvement

Over the past week, Eritrean troops have been seen in northern Tigray while Ethiopia launched drone strikes against their forces. [2] A foreign security source estimated that 5,000 to 8,000 Eritrean soldiers were present in Tigray. [2] The Ethiopian army pushed back the rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front and seized their capital city, Mekelle. [2] There are signs that federal forces have pushed back Eritrean troops with heavy drone strikes. [2] Witnesses told AFP that rebels had lost Shire and Adigrat. [2] Eritrean forces were seen in Adigrat in recent days before being targeted by Ethiopian drone strikes, according to a conflict monitor and witnesses. [2] The rebels were retreating toward Sheraro, a town near the Eritrean border, according to a Tigrayan official from a TPLF dissident faction. [2] Regional specialist Kjetil Tronvoll told AFP that the TPLF was "withering", with low morale and frustration with their leaders, and that many fighters are defecting and returning to their villages. [2] Tronvoll added that he does not believe Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will stop at the border. [2]

Collapse of the 2022 Peace Agreement and Regional Spread

On 22 September 2026, after long-simmering tensions between the Ethiopian Federal Government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front escalated from sporadic clashes and airstrikes to open military confrontation, fighting resumed on a large scale and spread to the Afar and Amhara regions in northern Ethiopia. [4] Heavy fighting involving drone strikes, mortar strikes and artillery fire, including indiscriminate airstrikes in populated areas and on civilian infrastructure that may amount to war crimes, is pitting federal forces and allied forces against the TPLF's Tigray Defence Force as well as other regional armed groups including the Amhara Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army. [4] ENDF and pro-government forces reportedly captured several towns, including the regional capital Mekelle. [4] On 1 October, blasts were reported in Addis Ababa after Ethiopia's National Intelligence and Security Service declared a ban on operating drones and other flying objects in the capital. [4] This significant escalation means that the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022 between Ethiopia's Federal Government and the TPLF has effectively collapsed. [4] Fighting has resumed on a large scale in Tigray and spread into neighboring Afar and Amhara regions while conflicts continue in Amhara and Oromia. [5] The escalation occurred against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions that led to the cutting of diplomatic ties between Eritrea and Ethiopia. [4]

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Human Rights and Atrocity Risks

Civil society groups urged the UN Human Rights Council to convene a special session over risks of renewed atrocity crimes, citing the collapse of the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and lack of accountability for past violations. [4] The organizations warned that renewed large-scale hostilities could lead to a repeat of atrocities committed during the 2020-2022 war, including massacres of civilians, widespread sexual violence, attacks on health facilities, and allegations of ethnic cleansing. [5] Estimates of deaths during the previous conflict reached several hundred thousand. [5] The previous conflict was marked by atrocity crimes, massacres of civilians and other unlawful killings, widespread conflict-related sexual and reproductive violence, attacks on health, forced displacement, and ethnic cleansing. [4] There has been no accountability for the grave crimes committed, including because the federal government has largely shelved its transitional justice process and the Human Rights Council terminated the mandate of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia. [4] The resulting impunity creates grave risks for civilians, including of new atrocities. [5] Renewed hostilities are occurring amid the backdrop of ongoing conflict in the Amhara and Oromia regions, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation due to disruptions to essential services and supply routes, including access to health care, Internet and communication services, air travel, and banking services. [4] Communication disruptions and access restrictions are occurring alongside severe civic space restrictions, including government attacks against journalists, media workers, human rights defenders, and other independent actors. [4]

International and Regional Implications

The UN Secretary-General, the High Commissioner for Human Rights, and the African Union have all expressed alarm about the situation and urged restraint, de-escalation and civilian protection. [4] Observers point to the role of external actors and the risk of a regional conflict threatening to destabilise the entire Horn of Africa sub-region as well as the Red Sea area. [4] The emergence of an alliance of seven regional armed groups seeking to remove the federal government could have wider destabilizing consequences across the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region. [5] The organizations urged the Human Rights Council to urgently convene a special session on the human rights impact of the conflict before its next regular session scheduled for February 2027. [5] They called for the adoption of a resolution requesting the Council's President to appoint an advisory panel of three independent human rights experts to assess violations since August 2026 and make recommendations. [4]

What to watch next: the Human Rights Council may convene the requested special session to address the deteriorating situation, appoint the proposed advisory panel of experts, and consider further measures including an enhanced interactive dialogue during its 64th regular session in early 2027.