Europe logs at least 35,000 excess deaths from summer heat waves

Europe’s Heat-Wave Death Toll

At least 35,000 more people died during Europe’s four record-breaking, back-to-back heat waves this summer than would normally be expected, according to incomplete figures from barely half the continent. [4] Excess mortality in three of the EU’s larger countries — Germany, France and Spain — alone has already exceeded 25,000, according to the provisional national figures, and experts say the toll would rise significantly once this month’s totals are consolidated. [4] The consecutive heat waves across western Europe since May shattered all-time historical temperature records across hundreds of weather stations, and France recorded its hottest national average day on record. [4] An aerial photograph shows boats stranded on the parched bed of Brenets Lake, part of the Doubs River, in Les Brenets, Switzerland, on Aug. 11. [4] Records fell for three straight days in Germany in late June, when 46 stations topped 40°C, while Spain endured persistent highs above 42°C. [4] Scientists say human-made global heating is making such extreme events more frequent and intense. [4] The death toll is highest in Germany, which late last week reported an estimated 14,000 heat-related deaths from April 6 to Aug. 9. [4] Systematically compiled EU-wide excess mortality figures, available since 2008, show the only other summer week in which a higher rate of additional deaths has been recorded was in July 2022, when COVID-19 was still active. [4] Visitors sitting on a bench look out at the sun-scorched grass at Hampton Court in southwest London on Thursday last week. [4] Different countries calculate and present their data in different ways. [4] Spain and Germany model estimated heat-related deaths in real time, comparing daily temperatures and mortality rates to calculate deaths attributable to heat. [4] Such estimations are necessary because heat is rarely stated as a direct cause of death. [4] In most cases, heat aggravates a pre-existing health condition. [4] France, where more than 500 weather stations recorded temperatures higher than 40°C and at one stage 98 percent of the country was under heat alerts, reported an initial “all causes” excess death figure and definitive attribution later. [4] Its national health agency last week said that “all cause” excess deaths from late May to July 22 stood at 7,300. [4] Figures for this month were not yet available and initial data were based on electronic death certificates, which account for only 80 percent of total mortality, it said. [4] Italy, whose national heat surveillance system uses local municipal data, meaning it is often subject to significant delays, has so far only reported incomplete real-time indicators rather than a consolidated national death toll. [4] Modeling suggests 2,700 more people died than usual from June 22 to 28 alone and epidemiologists have said the country’s total heat-attributable death toll would probably be between 5,000 and 8,000 by the time it is formally recorded. [4] Other European countries to have already reported excess death tolls include the UK, where the health security agency last month said that its modeling suggested the May and June heat waves had resulted in 2,877 heat-associated fatalities in England. [4] Belgium has said its preliminary data showed it recorded a 39 percent increase in mortality from June 18 to 29, equating to 1,222 additional deaths, and the Netherlands has said at least 900 more people than usual died from June 22 to July 5. [4] A rapid modeling study cited by the European Commission estimates that 1,070 more people than usual died in Poland during the late-June heat wave, and Swiss public health authority data suggests excess heat-related deaths of 220 in the same week. [4] Early figures from Luxembourg, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Denmark indicate about 40 excess deaths in each of those countries. [4] Agence France-Presse has calculated that areas inhabited by more than 80 million Europeans experienced temperatures above 40°C this summer. [4] The WHO said in May that heat-related mortality in its European region had increased by more than 30 percent over the past 20 years and was on course to climb significantly as a result of the climate crisis and population aging. [4]

Germany’s Record Heat Fatalities

An aerial view shows boats stranded on the dry bed of Brenets Lake in Switzerland. — Source: taipei-times The death toll is highest in Germany, which late last week reported an estimated 14,000 heat-related deaths from April 6 to Aug. 9. [4] The Robert Koch Institute public health agency said 9,600 people had died in the week of June 22 to 28 alone. [4] Records fell for three straight days in Germany in late June, when 46 stations topped 40°C. [4] Excess mortality in three of the EU’s larger countries — Germany, France and Spain — alone has already exceeded 25,000, according to the provisional national figures. [4] At least 35,000 more people died during Europe’s four record-breaking, back-to-back heat waves this summer than would normally be expected, according to incomplete figures from barely half the continent. [4] The true figure is likely to be much higher, as it only covers about half of the continent and does not include August totals. [4] Systematically compiled EU-wide excess mortality figures, available since 2008, show the only other summer week in which a higher rate of additional deaths has been recorded was in July 2022, when COVID-19 was still active. [4]

Spain and France Heat Impacts

Figures from the Carlos III health institute’s mortality monitoring system suggest 4,947 deaths in Spain from May to this week can be attributed to heat, making this year Spain’s worst year on record for heat-related deaths, exceeding the 4,520 recorded in 2022. [4] Spain endured persistent highs above 42°C. [4] France, where more than 500 weather stations recorded temperatures higher than 40°C and at one stage 98 percent of the country was under heat alerts, reported an initial “all causes” excess death figure and definitive attribution later. [4] Its national health agency last week said that “all cause” excess deaths from late May to July 22 stood at 7,300. [4] France recorded its hottest national average day on record. [4] The consecutive heat waves across western Europe since May shattered all-time historical temperature records across hundreds of weather stations. [4] Different countries calculate and present their data in different ways. [4] Spain and Germany model estimated heat-related deaths in real time, comparing daily temperatures and mortality rates to calculate deaths attributable to heat. [4] Such estimations are necessary because heat is rarely stated as a direct cause of death. [4] In most cases, heat aggravates a pre-existing health condition. [4] Figures for this month were not yet available and initial data were based on electronic death certificates, which account for only 80 percent of total mortality, it said. [4]

Additional European Excess Deaths

Other European countries to have already reported excess death tolls include the UK, where the health security agency last month said that its modeling suggested the May and June heat waves had resulted in 2,877 heat-associated fatalities in England. [4] Belgium has said its preliminary data showed it recorded a 39 percent increase in mortality from June 18 to 29, equating to 1,222 additional deaths. [4] The Netherlands has said at least 900 more people than usual died from June 22 to July 5. [4] A rapid modeling study cited by the European Commission estimates that 1,070 more people than usual died in Poland during the late-June heat wave, and Swiss public health authority data suggests excess heat-related deaths of 220 in the same week. [4] Early figures from Luxembourg, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Denmark indicate about 40 excess deaths in each of those countries. [4] Italy, whose national heat surveillance system uses local municipal data, meaning it is often subject to significant delays, has so far only reported incomplete real-time indicators rather than a consolidated national death toll. [4] Modeling suggests 2,700 more people died than usual from June 22 to 28 alone and epidemiologists have said the country’s total heat-attributable death toll would probably be between 5,000 and 8,000 by the time it is formally recorded. [4] Agence France-Presse has calculated that areas inhabited by more than 80 million Europeans experienced temperatures above 40°C this summer. [4] The WHO said in May that heat-related mortality in its European region had increased by more than 30 percent over the past 20 years and was on course to climb significantly as a result of the climate crisis and population aging. [4]

U.S. Thunderstorm and Fire Weather Alerts

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Edwards, KS. At 1216 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles east of Zook to near Byers, moving southeast at 20 mph. [2] HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. [2] SOURCE...Radar indicated. [2] IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. [2] Locations impacted include Pratt, Byers, Dillwyn, Iuka and St. John. [2] Fire Weather Watch: Okanogan Valley. The National Weather Service in Spokane has issued a Fire Weather Watch for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. [1] Affected Area: Okanogan Valley (Zone 703) and Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). [1] Winds: Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. [1] Relative Humidities: 19 to 25 percent. [1] Impacts: Rapid fire spread is possible with any new or ongoing fires. [1]

Western Pacific Typhoon Update

Typhoon Saudel is continuing to weaken and shift its path northward, with a sea warning expected to be issued this evening, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. [5] The agency did not rule out issuing a land warning for outlying Lienchiang County (Matsu) tomorrow morning, although all storm warnings could be lifted by Friday night. [5] Saudel is expected to be closest to Taiwan from tomorrow night to Friday, bringing localized heavy rain to northern and southern Taiwan, as well as central mountainous areas, the agency said. [5] As of 2pm yesterday, the center of moderate Typhoon Saudel was about 890km east-northeast of Taipei, CWA forecaster Huang En-hung (黃恩鴻) said. [5] As atmospheric conditions are unfavorable for its development, the storm is continuing to weaken and its radius is shrinking, Huang said. [5] When it is closest to Taiwan between tomorrow night and Friday, it could weaken to the lower limit of a moderate typhoon or the upper limit of a light typhoon, he added. [5] The projected path of Typhoon Saudel is pictured as of 2pm yesterday. [5] Forecast models show that Saudel’s path is continuously shifting northward, meaning its impact in terms of wind and rain on Taiwan would be lessened, and the chances of its storm circle touching land have significantly decreased, he said. [5] Several airlines have announced flight cancelations to Okinawa for today, Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport said. [5] As of 6pm yesterday, a total of 16 flights had been canceled, including China Airlines flights CI121/120 between Taoyuan and Naha; EVA Air flights BR112/113/185/186 between Taoyuan and Naha; and Peach Aviation flights MM921/922/924/927/929/930 between Taoyuan and Naha. [5] Also canceled are Starlux Airlines flights JX890/891 between Taoyuan and Miyakojima, Okinawa, and Thai Lion Air flights SL380/381 between Taoyuan and Naha. [5] Moisture levels are expected to decrease today, although southern areas could still experience localized, brief heavy downpours in the early morning, with occasional showers expected throughout the rest of the day, Huang said. [5] He urged people nationwide to be aware of afternoon thunderstorms. [5] From tomorrow night through Friday, when Saudel would exert its strongest influence, localized, brief showers or thunderstorms could occur across the nation, Huang said. [5] Northern and southern Taiwan, as well as central mountainous areas, could experience localized heavy rain, while it would be cloudy elsewhere, he added. [5] After the typhoon moves away, Taiwan is still forecast to remain under the influence of a large low-pressure system through next week, bringing localized, brief showers or thunderstorms to central and southern areas, and brief afternoon thunderstorms to other regions, he said. [5] Huang said that high waves are likely to occur along the north coast of Keelung, the eastern coastline, the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島) and Lienchiang County until Saturday. [5] Furthermore, a large low-pressure zone remains over the waters east of the Philippines, and a new tropical system is expected to develop next week, Huang said. [5] It cannot be ruled out that it might strengthen into a tropical depression or a typhoon by next weekend, although its path requires further observation, he added. [5]

What to watch next: A new tropical system is expected to develop next week over the waters east of the Philippines, and it cannot be ruled out that it might strengthen into a tropical depression or a typhoon by next weekend. [5]