Europe Severe Weather Drives at Least 35,000 Excess Deaths in Summer Heat Waves

Europe severe weather produced at least 35,000 excess deaths during four consecutive record-breaking heat waves this summer, with the toll highest in Germany, France and Spain according to incomplete figures covering about half the continent and excluding August totals. Excess mortality in Germany, France and Spain alone has already exceeded 25,000 according to provisional national figures.

Record Heat Waves Sweep Europe

The consecutive heat waves across western Europe since May shattered all-time historical temperature records across hundreds of weather stations. France recorded its hottest national average day on record. Records fell for three straight days in Germany in late June, when 46 stations topped 40°C, while Spain endured persistent highs above 42°C. Agence France-Presse has calculated that areas inhabited by more than 80 million Europeans experienced temperatures above 40°C this summer. [1] From 20 to 24 June temperatures reached around 44 to 45 degrees in Spain and France. The next days the extreme heat moved north and east. On 28 June national heat records were set in Germany at 41.7°C, Czechia at 41.1°C and Poland at 40.5°C. London set a June record with 36.4°C. The unusually high temperatures in western and central Europe this summer were linked to a heat dome, a long-lasting high-pressure area with stagnant warm air. [2]

Excess Mortality Toll Reaches at Least 35,000

{IMAGE_2} Systematically compiled EU-wide excess mortality figures available since 2008 show the only other summer week in which a higher rate of additional deaths has been recorded was in July 2022 when COVID-19 was still active. Germany late last week reported an estimated 14,000 heat-related deaths from April 6 to August 9. The Robert Koch Institute public health agency said 9,600 people had died in the week of June 22 to 28 alone. Figures from the Carlos III health institute’s mortality monitoring system suggest 4,947 deaths in Spain from May to this week can be attributed to heat, making this year Spain’s worst year on record for heat-related deaths, exceeding the 4,520 recorded in 2022. France reported an initial all-cause excess death figure of 7,300 from late May to July 22. Italy has so far only reported incomplete real-time indicators rather than a consolidated national death toll. Modeling suggests 2,700 more people died than usual from June 22 to 28 alone in Italy and epidemiologists have said the country’s total heat-attributable death toll would probably be between 5,000 and 8,000 by the time it is formally recorded. The UK health security agency last month said modeling suggested the May and June heat waves had resulted in 2,877 heat-associated fatalities in England. Belgium said its preliminary data showed a 39 percent increase in mortality from June 18 to 29 equating to 1,222 additional deaths. The Netherlands said at least 900 more people than usual died from June 22 to July 5. A rapid modeling study cited by the European Commission estimates that 1,070 more people than usual died in Poland during the late-June heat wave. Swiss public health authority data suggests excess heat-related deaths of 220 in the same week. Early figures from Luxembourg, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Denmark indicate about 40 excess deaths in each of those countries. [1]

Highest Impact in Western and Central Europe

A single week in late June saw around 16,000 excess deaths across Europe. Highest excess mortality was recorded in Germany, France and Belgium. Use of air conditioning remains low in this region while countries further south in Europe have long experience with extreme heat and better methods for handling it. Historically countries in southern Europe have been used to warmer weather and homes are partly adapted to it. People know how to keep the heat out to the extent possible. Air conditioning is also more common in the south though many still do not have it or cannot afford to use it as much as needed. When nights also become warm and people do not sleep well they become more vulnerable. [2]

Vulnerable Groups and Causes of Death

Excess deaths are difficult to measure directly so EuroMOMO uses figures on excess mortality meaning how many more people die regardless of cause than would be expected at that time of year based on historical data. Normally peaks in excess mortality occur in winter when respiratory viruses spread. The week with the worst heat wave this summer had more excess deaths than any week last winter. Increased deaths are not necessarily only due to heatstroke. Previous studies show increased mortality in heat particularly among people with heart and circulatory diseases and respiratory diseases. The EuroMOMO report also shows older people tolerate heat far worse than younger people. In week 26 87 percent of the excess mortality was in the age group over 65 years. 13 percent of the excess mortality was in the age group under 65 years. The youngest group from 0 to 14 years also had mortality above normal level that week. Spain and Germany model estimated heat-related deaths in real time comparing daily temperatures and mortality rates to calculate deaths attributable to heat. Such estimations are necessary because heat is rarely stated as a direct cause of death. In most cases heat aggravates a pre-existing health condition. France reported an initial all-cause excess death figure with definitive attribution later. [1][2]

Drownings Surge in France

France has recorded more than 300 drownings this summer up sharply from last year. Authorities link the surge to the heat waves that have swept Europe. [4]

Climate Context and Future Outlook

Scientists say human-made global heating is making such extreme events more frequent and intense. The WHO said in May that heat-related mortality in its European region had increased by more than 30 percent over the past 20 years and was on course to climb significantly as a result of the climate crisis and population aging. Given global warming continued large variations from year to year must be expected. Both 2026 and 2027 are El Niño years. Physiologically humans can adapt to heat to a certain extent but there is a limit. There are many possibilities to adapt homes, cities, infrastructure and working life but this requires funding and political will. European authorities must assist local authorities with advice and guidelines. A shift is needed from acute response to long-term measures. Free entry to museums and buildings with air conditioning seen this year was good but does not reach everyone. More preventive adaptation is required with better warning and preparedness. Concrete measures are also needed to make cities cooler including more greenery, shade and nature-based solutions. Measures must be designed to protect the most vulnerable groups. High-resolution surveillance data on mortality and hospital admissions is important. Studies documenting the effect of different types of measures are also central for better planning. [1][2]

What to watch next: Researchers note that more extreme heat summers must be expected ahead with El Niño years coming and stress the need for long-term adaptation measures including better urban planning and protection of vulnerable groups.