Doomsday Clock Ticks Closer as Trump Envoys Shuttle Between Moscow and Kyiv
As the doomsday clock ticks closer amid escalating conflicts, Trump administration envoys are shuttling between Russia and Ukraine to pursue mediation as both sides intensify missile strikes, Ukraine faces severe shortages of air defenses, and regional conflicts linked to Gaza continue to escalate.
Trump Envoys Pursue Mediation Amid Missile Escalation
Trump envoys including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv as Russia ramps up cruise missile launches and Ukraine runs out of air defenses. [5] Trump told Putin in a call that ending the Ukraine war would restore US-Russia ties. [5] Exactly two months ago, Ukraine’s momentum was all the talk at a Nato summit in Turkey, with its long-range drones and Donald Trump’s surprise announcement that the US would allow Kyiv to produce Patriot anti-ballistic missiles on home soil. [3] That was then. This is now: Trump's deal has yet to materialize, Russia has ramped up cruise missile launches and Ukraine has run out of air defenses to stop them. [3] Moscow is also failing to stop incoming missiles. [3] What happens in war when for both sides, offense proves better than defense? [3] Could this lose-lose situation make mediation efforts like the one undertaken in the past days by Donald Trump’s emissaries more relevant? [3] The doomsday clock advances with these missile barrages and the push for talks. Russia still calls the conflict a special military operation. [3] Moscow must look beyond the battlefield to the momentum enjoyed by Putin-friendly populists in France and Germany, to the US midterms and to Nato’s resolve. [3]
Zelenskyy Visits Norway as War Strains Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Oslo for a funeral, demonstrating ties with Norway, one of Ukraine's strongest supporters, amid signs the war is taking a heavy toll including increased Russian missile attacks on Kyiv with short warning times. [1] The Ukrainian president met King Harald several times. [1] By participating in the funeral, he also showed his connection to the Norwegian people. [1] Norway ranks among Ukraine's strongest and most important supporters. [1] Yet the strain shows in the east. [1] President Zelenskyy could have chosen to stay home to handle internal problems. [1] It is respectable that he came for the funeral. [1] The Ukrainian presidential plane landed at Oslo Airport on Tuesday evening. [1] These are tough days for Ukrainians, and the signs that the war is wearing them down are growing steadily. [1] Faith that the Americans can stop Putin has not grown. [1] Russian attacks are claiming more civilian lives, and daily life is becoming step by step more unbearable. [1] A few months ago things looked almost bright. [1] Ukraine was taking more land and succeeding in striking important targets deep inside Russia. [1] The Russian economy was under pressure. [1] All this remains true. [1] But what was a drone war in which Ukraine was gaining the upper hand has changed character. [1] Now missiles dominate the Russian attacks. [1] That is a serious problem. [1] Night after night dozens of ballistic missiles thunder down in and around Kyiv. [1] They come at speeds of several thousand kilometers per hour. [1] Warning time is short. [1] Damage is great. [1] Ukraine is nearly out of the missiles capable of stopping such attacks. [1] There is a shortage across the board, so Zelenskyy faces a demanding task in persuading other countries to share from their stocks. [1] It must be accepted that it will take a long time to produce enough such air-defense missiles, quickly enough and cheaply enough. [1] On top of the misery, Russia has successfully fitted jet engines to the large attack drones that have plagued Ukraine for a long time. [1] When the drones come faster they are also much harder to shoot down. [1] One of them struck last week the headquarters of the security service SBU in central Kyiv. [1]
Internal Pressures Mount on Ukrainian Leadership
Internal Ukrainian strains are growing after 4.5 years of war, including clashes between security services, criticism over winter preparations, ongoing corruption scandals, and increasing calls for elections to renew Zelenskyy's mandate despite practical obstacles. [1] After 4.5 years of war against what is essentially a military superior force, the strain on internal conditions is understandable. [1] Problems must be solved even if it is understandable that things creak here and there. [1] One absurd example that has received attention is an incident last week in which soldiers from Ukraine's two security services attacked each other. [1] Interest conflicts between agencies are known both here and there, but it is a terribly bad sign when they end in violence against each other. [1] Zelenskyy's reaction was hard and direct, yet such events still become a problem for him. [1] Criticism is coming more frequently that the authorities are not well enough prepared for the coming winter. [1] The population fears an even worse winter than the last one. [1] For several weeks there was a lack of electricity, heating and water for weeks in the big cities. [1] Ukrainians also have a tolerance limit. [1] Corruption scandals keep emerging. [1] It is very positive that Ukraine's own anti-corruption agencies themselves uncover possible corruption. [1] The cases also have consequences for those who have grabbed public funds in the middle of a war. [1] Yet all the cases are disturbing. [1] Therefore the point is approaching where an election is necessary to secure the legitimacy of the political leadership. [1] Zelenskyy has done a formidable job leading a country at war in what was already a patchy democracy. [1] At some point he too needs a new mandate from the people. [1] The defense minister he recently fired is among those now speaking loudly about it. [1] Since the full-scale war broke out there has been broad agreement in the Ukrainian population that an election must wait, even though the election period expired a couple of years ago. [1] The practical obstacles to holding an election are endless, and people know it. [1] How will soldiers at the front vote? [1] Will people be attacked while standing in line? [1] What about those living in occupied areas? [1] How will all those who fled abroad vote? [1] But pressure is mounting, and it will probably happen before Trump is man enough to press Putin as hard as he should. [1]
Qatar Links Gaza Conflict to Iran-Gulf Attacks
Qatari officials state the Gaza war was the 'nucleus' for Iran's attacks on the Gulf, including on Qatar, and insist the Iran conflict can only be resolved through a negotiated deal rather than sanctions, warning of economic and energy catastrophes if the Strait of Hormuz closure becomes normalized. [2] The Iran conflict will only be resolved through a deal, Qatari Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Majed al-Ansari told CNN on Monday. [2] Ansari argued that the nucleus of the broader regional crisis was the war Israel fought in Gaza. [2] Sanctions have been a staple in diplomacy in the Middle East for some time yet have not yielded the results expected. [2] Sanctions only impact the economy, the people and the state's ability to survive. [2] This issue will only be resolved through a deal at the negotiation table. [2] Whatever leverage is used on either side will end up as an item on an agreement signed at the end. [2] The sooner the agreement is reached, the less suffering will be had on the international economy and on the peoples of this region. [2] Qatar has been repeatedly attacked by the Islamic Republic since Israel and the United States struck Iran at the end of February. [2] Despite Doha's economy and energy infrastructure not being spared from Iranian drones and missiles, Ansari framed the attacks as the consequence of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. [2] The nucleus of this issue was what happened in Gaza, and there is a need to go back to that, starting with recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz and ending with finding a solution to the Palestinian issue. [2] This cannot be dealt with as an afterthought. [2] It has to be something worked on carefully, regionally and with international partners. [2] Qatar’s two main priorities are saying the strait is open and ensuring there is no military escalation in the region. [2] Closing the Strait of Hormuz cannot become normalized. [2] The world today with just one strait affected is facing inflation problems, energy security problems and food security problems. [2] There is an industrial catastrophe if this continues. [2]
Broader Regional Fallout and Warnings
US officials assessed that Hormuz was losing its strategic value. [2] New pipelines are being created which bypass Hormuz entirely. [2] In the latest round of conflict, GCC states have also been less convincing on a unified approach toward Iran, and the intensity of the attacks has weakened. [2] Israeli opposition leaders called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unfit to serve after a report that the United Arab Emirates had warned him before the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack. [4] Haaretz newspaper said UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan spoke to Netanyahu a week and a half before the attack and told him that Hamas was planning a major operation. [4] Netanyahu’s office called the report an absolute lie. [4] Gadi Eisenkot accused the prime minister of evading responsibility for security lapses. [4] Netanyahu received dozens of warnings for October 7 and ignored them all. [4] Naftali Bennett said Netanyahu bears personal and direct responsibility for the deaths on Oct. 7. [4] Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar had warned a former Palestinian official that the militants were preparing a terrifying operation. [4] The former Palestinian official relayed the message to an Emirati adviser, who passed it on to the Emirati leader, who then called Netanyahu. [4] The attack killed 1,221 people according to an AFP tally. [4] The militants also dragged into Gaza 251 hostages, 44 of them already dead. [4] The massive Israeli offensive in response has left most of Gaza in ruins and killed 73,658 people according to the Gaza health ministry. [4]
What to watch next: Mediation efforts by Trump’s emissaries could gain relevance if the lose-lose missile situation continues, while Qatar pushes for a negotiated deal on the Iran conflict to avoid further economic fallout.
