Doomsday Clock Ticks Closer as Gulf Oil Exports Rebound Through Strait of Hormuz
The doomsday clock ticks closer as Gulf oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to pre-war levels of 13.5 million barrels per day despite Iran's blockade efforts, as more vessels transit under US escort while negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue. [2]
Oil Flows Rebound Through Hormuz
Gulf oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to pre-war levels of 13.5 million barrels per day despite Iran's blockade efforts, as more vessels transit under US escort while negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue. [2] Before the Middle East war, around a fifth of the hydrocarbons consumed worldwide passed through the strategic chokepoint. [2] According to preliminary data from the commodity-tracking platform Kpler, non-Iranian crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, from Gulf countries and Iraq, averaged 13.5 million barrels per day between 22 and 28 September, equivalent to pre-war levels. [2] Iran still claims control over the strait, and ships without its authorisation risk coming under attack, but more and more are making it out. [2] "There are more players ready to try to get out of the Strait of Hormuz and succeed," TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne told investors on Monday. [2] The resumption of traffic comes as negotiations have restarted between Washington and Tehran, focused on restoring freedom of navigation in the strait. [2]
Bypass Routes Enable Saudi and UAE Exports
Saudi Arabia is benefiting from the reactivation of its East-West pipeline, which links the kingdom's main oil fields in the east to its Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea, allowing it to bypass Hormuz. [2] Shut down on 11 September after being hit by strikes launched from Iraq, the pipeline resumed operations on 22 September, according to Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler. [2] Based on data from the platform on Wednesday, at least 10 tankers left Yanbu loaded with crude over the weekend. [2] On Sunday, 9.5 million barrels were exported from the terminal area, a volume unseen since the start of the conflict. [2] The United Arab Emirates are also able to bypass the Hormuz thanks to their pipeline linking Abu Dhabi's fields to Fujairah, a terminal just outside the strait on the Gulf of Oman. [2] Despite the rebound, experts stressed that the situation was far from normal, and Iran remains deprived of a large share of its own exports by a US counterblockade of its ports. [2]
US Military Buildup and Trump Warnings
The US military is dispatching roughly 9,000 troops aboard a group of ships to the region, a US official said Thursday. [1] The troop movement, which includes a third aircraft carrier, underscores the rapidly evolving dynamic of Trump's war against Iran as he ponders his next move. [1] The bolstering of the American military presence comes as President Donald Trump warned anew that new strikes against Iran could be on the horizon. [1] Yemen's Houthis launched attacks across front lines in Taiz governorate, seeking to build on their recent offensive that captured the country’s Red Sea coast. [1]
Ongoing Risks and Attacks in the Strait
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for all goods combined remains far below its pre-war level, and ships continue to face risks when transiting. [2] British maritime agency UKMTO said unknown projectiles struck three ships in the waterway on Tuesday and again on Thursday. [2] Last week, an attack on a cargo ship there killed an Indian sailor, according to Omani and Indian authorities. [2] In a sign of persistent market concerns, international benchmark Brent remains above $100 a barrel. [2] The current situation provides some respite for the oil monarchies, but it is not a lasting solution, said Sanam Vakil of the UK-based think tank Chatham House. [2]
Negotiations, Iranian Conditions, and the Doomsday Clock
Iran has proposed to reopen the strait in exchange for the unfreezing of Iranian assets abroad, the lifting of sanctions on its oil sector and an end to the US naval blockade, among other conditions. [2] Washington has rejected the plan, but indirect talks are ongoing. [2] "The Gulf states all recognise that the current arrangement is not sustainable. They depend on the United States to secure the maritime routes and keep exports flowing but they also know that military protection is not a substitute for a political understanding with Tehran," she told AFP. [2] "The regional trajectory still points toward greater escalation rather than a durable status quo, so higher exports today should not be mistaken for a new normal." [2]
Houthi Advances Disrupt Red Sea Routes
The Iran-backed Houthis launched a lightning offensive that saw them seize Yemen's entire Red Sea coast, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital shipping lane. [2] The violence has disrupted exports from Saudi Arabia, the world's leading supplier of crude oil, as well as maritime traffic. [2] Yemen's Houthis launched attacks across front lines in Taiz governorate, seeking to build on their recent offensive that captured the country’s Red Sea coast. [1] Yemeni government forces claimed to have inflicted heavy losses. [1]
What to watch next: Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran remain ongoing while the US continues dispatching roughly 9,000 troops and a third aircraft carrier to the region amid warnings of possible new strikes against Iran.
