Yemeni Government Forces Retake Mocha From Houthis in Red Sea Offensive Most Dangerous Countries

Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces have recaptured the strategic port city of Mocha from the Houthis and launched a major counteroffensive along the Bab al-Mandeb strait aimed at reversing recent Houthi gains in most dangerous countries. [1] The military of Yemen’s internationally recognised government has recaptured the strategic port city of Mocha and launched a major counteroffensive to oust the Houthis from key positions near the Bab al-Mandeb strait. [1]

Government Forces Retake Mocha

Yemeni government forces aligned with the internationally recognised government claimed advances north along the Red Sea coast, retaking the town of Dhubab and the port city of Mocha. [2] On Monday, forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognised government claimed the advance and headed north along the Red Sea coast, and said they had retaken the town of Dhubab and port city of Mocha. [2] The military of Yemen’s internationally recognised government has recaptured the strategic port city of Mocha. [1] Saudi-backed Yemeni forces confirm retaking Mocha from Houthis as part of operations near the Bab al-Mandeb strait. [1]

Launch of Major Counteroffensive

Rashad al-Alimi, head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, announced the start of a major offensive to capture all territories lost to the Houthis, including a strategic offensive on the Houthi-held capital Sanaa. [2] Yemeni government forces have claimed advances along the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait after the head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad al-Alimi, announced the start of a major offensive to capture all territories lost to the Houthis. [2] They also earlier said that they had launched a “strategic offensive” on the Houthi-held capital Sanaa. [2] Ahmed al-Shalafi, Al Jazeera’s Yemen correspondent, reported that the recent moves by the Yemeni government show complete operational and political integration. [2] These moves lend a serious and decisive dimension to the announced battle to liberate Sanaa and restore the state. [2]

Context of Recent Houthi Advances

The offensive also seeks to reverse Houthi gains made in early September around the key city of Taiz in southwestern Yemen. [2] After four years of relative calm, fighting flared once again in July, before a Houthi offensive in early September saw the group make sweeping gains along the Red Sea coast, including the port city of Mocha and Bab al-Mandeb. [2] The Houthis, an Iranian-allied movement, have held the capital Sanaa since September 2014, before making other territorial gains in northern and western Yemen. [2] Government forces are also attempting to reverse gains made by the Houthis in recent days around the key city of Taiz, in southwestern Yemen. [2]

Challenges Facing Government Troops

Analysts note that while the fighting signals a new escalation, government forces face challenges pushing Houthis from mountain strongholds due to scattered troops and outdated equipment. [2] “The [internationally recognised government’s] ground forces are big on paper and quite sizeable, but scattered across a bunch of fronts and running on old pre-war gear, so they can hold their lines but [currently] can’t push the Houthis out of their mountain strongholds,” Raiman al-Hamdani, a London-based Yemen analyst, told Al Jazeera. [2] Nicholas Brumfield, an independent Yemen analyst, told Al Jazeera that he believes the balance of power has not yet shifted in favour of either side. [2] “The Houthis are going to keep pushing in Taiz and Marib,” he said. [2] “[Government] forces have been better on the defensive in Taiz … But the Houthis have been able to push in all directions at once in a way [government] forces just aren’t.” [2] The Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia, is now attempting to regain that lost territory, but still faces divisions within the anti-Houthi camp. [2]

Outlook for Escalation and Settlement Most Dangerous Countries

Longer-term analysts expect a negotiated political settlement rather than outright military victory, with Houthis retaining influence in northern Yemen. [2] “This all seems to be moving into a more dangerous phase, and while the appetite for a full-scale war may exist among elements of the leadership on both sides, the reality is more complicated,” al-Hamdani said. [2] “In the longer term, the more plausible outcome is not the military destruction of one side by the other, but a negotiated and imperfect political settlement in which the Houthis retain substantial influence in northern Yemen, Saudi Arabia obtains greater security guarantees, and Yemen’s competing political and military factions are forced into some form of power-sharing arrangement,” al-Hamdani added. [2] “The problem is that reaching that point may require another period of serious escalation before any settlement.” [2] Saeed Thabet, the head of Al Jazeera’s Yemen bureau, said the government’s advances, coming soon after al-Alimi’s announcement of the beginning of a new large-scale offensive against the Houthis, were a way of demonstrating that the government was serious about reversing Houthi gains. [2]

Regional Security Implications

Turkiye and Pakistan have agreed to rapidly deploy their militaries to bolster Saudi security as part of the Mecca defence pact. [1] Turkiye and Pakistan have agreed to a rapid military deployment under the Mecca defence pact to bolster Saudi Arabia’s security following Houthi threats to Mecca and Medina. [1]

What to watch next: Government forces will now attempt to control Taiz’s Red Sea coast and contain Houthi infiltration into some villages and areas in Taiz governorate, especially in al-Shamayatayn and al-Waziya districts.