United States Tensions Ease as Trump Reports Good Talks With Iran
Reporting based primarily on dailymaverick.co.za.
United States tensions have shown signs of easing after President Donald Trump announced that the United States is having good talks with Iran while pausing a two-week bombing campaign against the country. [2] Washington suspended its air strikes on Iran on Saturday in Trump’s latest strategic U-turn in the five-month-old conflict. [2] Trump said at a Michigan campaign rally that friendly negotiations are underway with Iran but added that the US will beat them if talks fail. [2] Even as those developments unfolded, drone attacks hit Iran’s neighbours and oil prices tumbled. [2]
Trump Announces Good Talks With Iran
President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday that the United States is having “good talks” with Iran right now. [4] He said at a campaign rally in Michigan later on Monday that “We’re having good talks. I think there’s a good chance that something could happen, and if it does, good, if it doesn’t, we go back to doing what we were doing two days ago.” [2] Trump added of Iran: “You can’t bribe them. You’ve got to beat them, and we’ll beat the hell out of them. But we’ll see how it turns out. Right now, there are very friendly negotiations going on.” [2] The remarks came after Washington abruptly suspended its two-week campaign of air strikes on Iran on Saturday. [2] The pause marked Trump’s latest strategic U-turn in the five-month-old conflict. [2]
Drone Attacks Follow Ceasefire
Despite Trump’s optimism, Tehran appeared to quickly test the pause in the U.S. military campaign, with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq reporting drone attacks on Monday. [2] Saudi Arabia said it shot down drones aimed at petroleum targets, including in Riyadh. [2] It said they had been launched from Iraq by Iran-backed armed groups, and it reserved the right to respond. [2] Separately, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen said they had targeted the East-West Pipeline carrying oil to Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea port of Yanbu in retaliation for Saudi drone incursions. [2] A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday that Iran would halt its own attacks as long as Trump’s self-imposed ceasefire continued. [2]
Iran Rejects Negotiation Claims
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Monday that messages were still being passed between the sides through mediators and Iran had not forsaken diplomacy, but reports that it requested negotiations were “fabricated.” [2] “This is not in our DNA,” he said. [2] Iran’s central military command later on Monday accused the U.S. of threatening vessels and oil tankers in its territorial waters and of “attempting to implement an illegal maritime blockade”, which it said “constitutes an escalation of the conflict in the region.” [2] Tehran also said it remained in control of the contested Strait of Hormuz, the key waterway for global energy supplies, which Trump has demanded vessels be able to pass through freely. [2] Iranian state media outlets cited an “informed source” as saying that Iran had turned around six “offending ships” on Monday that had attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission. [2]
Oil Prices Tumble on Pause
The end of the U.S. campaign after 13 successive nights of intensifying bombing and Trump’s remarks on talks sent oil prices tumbling. [2] U.S. crude fell 8.21% to $81.98 a barrel, and Brent fell to $87.77 per barrel, down 9.31% on the day. [2] The sharp decline followed the ceasefire announcement. [4] Trump dismissed suggestions that the U.S. faced munitions shortages, saying the military was rapidly rebuilding inventories depleted by shipments to Ukraine. [2] He said he would like more of “the more sophisticated stuff.” [2]
Domestic Political Context
Public disapproval of the war has been weighing on Trump and his Republican Party ahead of November midterm elections in which they have to defend slim congressional majorities. [2] A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted over the weekend showed Trump’s approval rating ticking higher to 37%, up three points from last month when it tied the lowest of his presidency. [2] However, just one in three Americans support the Iran war, the lowest Reuters/Ipsos reading since the conflict’s early days, with most saying Trump has failed to explain his goals. [2] The two weeks of renewed U.S. bombing killed scores in Iran and destroyed bridges and tunnels across the south as well as military targets. [2] Four U.S. service members were killed in return fire against U.S. bases in neighbouring states. [2] Iran also struck civilian infrastructure in Gulf countries, calling it retaliation for U.S. strikes. [2]
Military Advice Behind Decision
Trump’s decision to suspend U.S. attacks reflected advice from his military that the bombing had reached the limits of what it could achieve, according to a U.S. official and several U.S. media reports. [2] The U.S. official told Reuters military commanders had advised the president they were running out of targets and that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, had expressed concern over the depletion of air munitions. [2] It remains unclear what leverage Washington can exert to break Iran’s grip on the strait. [2] Washington and Tehran reached an agreement in June on a framework for talks meant to take place by the end of August to resolve major issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme. [2] But they have disputed the meaning of the memorandum’s language about the strait, with Washington insisting it requires Tehran to allow free travel, while Iran says it grants it the authority to supervise transit. [2]
What to watch next: Iranian state media reported that six offending ships were turned back on Monday after attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission, while the U.S. official noted that military commanders had advised the president they were running out of targets.
