Ukraine War: Trump's Ex-Envoy Kellogg Warns Putin Will Not Stop at Donbas
Reporting based primarily on kyivindependent.com.
Former U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg has issued a stark assessment of the Ukraine war, warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not stop at Donbas and comparing him to Adolf Hitler while stating that Putin could end the war immediately if he chose to do so.
Kellogg's Warning on Putin's Ambitions
Kellogg made the remarks during his sixth visit to Ukraine, his first since leaving office on Dec. 31, 2025, after meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky and receiving war briefings. [1] He argued that Russia would not end its war against Ukraine even if it captured all of Donbas. [1] For Kellogg, the central issue is not how much territory Russia captures, but whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would actually be satisfied with it. [1] "He doesn't end there. That's who Putin is," Kellogg said, comparing Moscow's territorial demands to Nazi Germany's demands over Czechoslovakia before World War II. [1] "He's sort of like Adolf Hitler." [1] Kellogg recalled British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's agreement with Hitler over the Sudetenland in 1938. [1] "Adolf Hitler told Chamberlain, 'Well, we only want the Sudetenland,'" he said. [1] "One year after Hitler said that, and Chamberlain came back after Munich and said, 'Peace in our time.'" [1] "One year from that day when he came back from Munich, we were in World War II. And that's my concern, is that we're going to end up in World War III." [1] Kellogg remains convinced that Putin could end the war almost immediately if he wanted to. [1] "Putin could stop the war in five minutes if he wanted," Kellogg said while arguing that the Russian leader's ambitions extend well beyond the territory Russia currently seeks in eastern Ukraine. [1] That, in Kellogg's view, is why any peace agreement needs to be judged not only by what happens on the battlefield today, but by what Moscow might try to do next. [1]
Kellogg's Visit to Kyiv and Views on Victory
Kellogg, a highly decorated retired three-star U.S. Army general, stepped down from his post on Dec. 31, 2025. [1] He has since joined the America First Policy Institute, a Washington think tank. [1] His return to Kyiv comes at a time when questions about the direction of U.S. policy toward Russia remain central to Ukraine's war effort. [1] A career military officer whose views on Russia were shaped during the Cold War, Kellogg has long advocated a "peace through strength" approach. [1] That position made him a trusted figure in Kyiv during his time in the Trump administration. [1] His departure was met with concern in Ukraine over what it could mean for Washington's policy toward Russia and Ukraine. [1] During his tenure, Kellogg played a central role in several sensitive diplomatic efforts. [1] He led negotiations over the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal and repeatedly condemned Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities in unusually blunt terms for a Trump envoy. [1] Kellogg also argued that Ukraine should think about victory as a long-term process rather than simply measuring it by the territory Kyiv controls when the fighting stops. [1] He pointed to the Soviet occupation of the Baltic states after World War II as an example of how territorial control does not necessarily determine international recognition. [1] The West never legally recognized the Soviet occupation, he noted, suggesting that Crimea could similarly remain internationally recognized as Ukrainian territory even if Russia continues to control it. [1] "Is Crimea still Ukraine? It is part of Ukraine," Kellogg said. [1] "So you have to start thinking five to 10 years down the line. If you look at it tomorrow, is it going to happen tomorrow? No. But is it going to happen, potentially, long-term?" [1]
Keith Kellogg warns Putin will not stop at Donbas during Ukraine visit. — Source: gdelt
Assessment of the Alaska Summit
Kellogg's argument also reflects his assessment of the Alaska summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin. [1] Kellogg said Putin expected Washington to accept Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donetsk Oblast. [1] Instead, he said, the U.S. position remained that "Ukraine is Ukrainian." [1] "I really believe this, Putin thought he was coming to that summit with the U.S. guaranteeing that Ukraine would give up (Donbas). That didn't happen," he said. [1] "In fact, what happened was that there was a lunch left on the table. They got on the airplanes and went home. I think what happened is Putin came in with one set of expectations, and the United States said, clearly, Ukraine is Ukrainian." [1] One person familiar with the Alaska discussions previously told the Kyiv Independent that Moscow asked Washington to pressure Ukraine to withdraw from Donbas, which includes both Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. [1] Later in November, Washington and Russia came up with a 28-point peace plan, which envisioned Ukraine would surrender the entire eastern Donbas region — both Russian-occupied areas and the parts still controlled by Ukrainian troops. [1] Under the plan, Ukrainian forces would withdraw from these remaining areas, which would then be designated a demilitarized zone. [1] The Alaska meeting, however, in Kellogg's telling, failed to deliver what Putin had expected from Washington. [1] And that, he argues, is important because Moscow's territorial demands have to be tested against what Russia can actually capture on the battlefield. [1]
Kellogg on Battlefield Realities and Russian Losses
Kellogg also praised Ukraine's military capabilities and continued Western support, comparing Ukraine's resistance to Britain's fight against Nazi Germany during World War II. [1] His message was that Ukraine's allies need to be prepared for a long struggle rather than allowing Moscow to dictate the terms of a peace settlement simply because the war has continued for years. [1] "I have high hopes that Putin is getting frustrated with it," Kellogg said. [1] "As I told President Trump, if Putin wants the rest of Donetsk, then let him fight for it." [1] "I've got great confidence in Ukrainians that they will do quite well in that regard." [1] For Kellogg, Russia's battlefield losses are also evidence that Putin's war has not produced the results Moscow expected. [1] He even suggested that the scale of Russian casualties could create political risks for Putin inside Russia. [1] "I think he's got a problem. Yeah. The problem is, is he going to fall out of a 73-floor building window because he sacrificed so much?" [1] Kellogg put Russia's losses at between 1.2 million and 1.4 million dead, while comparing them with the Soviet Union's losses during its war in Afghanistan. [1] "The Soviet Union lost 18,000 in Afghanistan and left. Putin has not taken Kyiv, he's not taken Kharkiv, he's not taken Odesa, he has not crossed the Dnipro River." [1] That leads Kellogg to a conclusion that differs sharply from the idea that Putin is steadily winning the war. [1] "There are a lot of people who have said that Putin is succeeding. I don't think he is. I think he is not succeeding. He is in Ukraine's hands." [1]
Zelensky meets with former US envoy Keith Kellogg in Ukraine. — Source: copenhagenpost
Ukrainian Air Defense Updates
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that Ukraine recently received a small number of Patriot missiles, without specifying the quantity or the supplier. [3] He added that Ukraine has received confirmation of future deliveries of the French Crotale missile defense system. [3] Ukraine has repeatedly reported an acute shortage of Patriot missiles since the US and its allies began supplying the systems. [3]
Vatican Call for Peace in Moscow
A senior Vatican official urged an end to the Ukraine war after meeting in Moscow on Tuesday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the first in-person talks between Vatican and Russian officials in five years. [4]
What to watch next: Kellogg assessed that Putin is not succeeding based on high casualties and unachieved objectives such as the failure to capture Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa or cross the Dnipro, while Zelensky noted ongoing shortages alongside confirmation of future French Crotale deliveries and a senior Vatican official called for an end to the war following talks with Lavrov.
