Ukraine Resumes Strikes on Russian Oil Refineries After Ceasefire Collapse
Russia reported intercepting Ukrainian drones and missiles targeting an oil refinery in Ryazan on Thursday, causing a fire from falling debris, one day after Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian energy sites following the collapse of a US-proposed energy ceasefire. [1]
Resumption of Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries
Zelenskyy told the Financial Times that Kyiv was “done” with the energy ceasefire unilaterally announced by Trump and would resume strikes on Russian oil refineries after suspending them for several days. [1] Russia’s defence ministry stated that a large-scale Ukrainian attack was attempted on the Ryazan refinery 180 km south of Moscow, with a fire breaking out after drone debris fell on the site. [1] The Kyiv regime attempted a large-scale attack on an oil refinery in Ryazan, Moscow’s defence ministry said in a statement on Thursday, adding that a fire broke out after drone debris fell onto the refinery site. [1] Ukraine suspended attacks on Russian energy infrastructure for three days after Trump’s announcement but resumed on Wednesday, striking sites in Saratov and Ryazan regions according to Russian officials. [1] The Kremlin said Ukraine had attempted a large-scale attack on an oil refinery south of Moscow early on Thursday. [5] According to Russia’s defence ministry, four missiles and dozens of drones were intercepted and the falling debris had caused a fire at the site in Ryazan. [5]
Collapse of the US-Proposed Energy Ceasefire
Trump on Sunday unilaterally announced an energy ceasefire that was not publicly confirmed, and Moscow continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. [1] Ukraine said it suspended attacks on Russian energy sites for several days after Trump’s announcement. [1] On Sunday, Trump announced the ceasefire that envisages no mutual strikes on energy infrastructure from Russian oil refineries and fuel depots to Ukrainian power and heating stations. [2] Kyiv said the announcement was a surprise, while Moscow declined to say whether it backs the idea and kept on hitting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. [2] The Kremlin never said it agreed to the deal. [5] Zelenskyy agreed that he felt betrayed by the US when asked by Piers Morgan on Wednesday night, after Washington appeared to withdraw key elements of its support. [5] He previously said he would agree to the so-called energy ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump on Sunday if Moscow also abided by it. [5] But he accused Russia of ignoring the proposed deal within hours of it being announced, with strikes leaving hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians without power. [5]
Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries resume after energy ceasefire collapse. — Source: aljazeera
US Pressure and Alleged Intelligence Restrictions
Zelenskyy accused the US of withdrawing crucial intelligence sharing on Russian strikes to pressure Kyiv, which Trump denied, while also alleging restrictions on Starshield satellite services used by Ukrainian forces. [1] Ukraine’s president earlier told the British newspaper the Financial Times that strikes on Russian oil refineries would resume, and accused the US of weakening Ukraine’s position on the battlefield by allegedly withdrawing crucial intelligence sharing. [1] Zelenskyy also alleged that Ukraine’s access to SpaceX’s satellite internet service was restricted, potentially leaving it more vulnerable to Russian attacks. [1] The Ukrainian armed forces use SpaceX’s military-grade Starshield system for offensive and defensive operations. [1] In a post on X on Wednesday evening, SpaceX owner Elon Musk said that only the US military and Trump had the authority to limit Starshield’s usage and speed for clients. [1] Zelenskyy also accused the US of withdrawing intelligence-sharing on Russian strikes to pressure Kyiv into ending the attacks altogether after it struck a deal to import Russian diesel, and said a slowdown of Starlink satellite services used by Ukraine’s military was deliberate. [5] The Ukrainian president told the FT that Ukrainian officials had been told by US counterparts that if you will not stop the strikes, we will block intelligence. [5] Trump denied halting intelligence-sharing. [5] On Wednesday, Ukraine’s drone czar accused Elon Musk’s SpaceX of throttling Starlink satellite terminals that are part of the military-grade Starshield system. [2] Musk said that the White House owns and controls the Starshield systems and that any limits on speed are decided by Trump. [2]
Impact of Russian Attacks on Ukraine
Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy sites and cities continued despite the proposed ceasefire, killing at least 15 people this week and leaving hundreds of thousands without power. [1] This week’s nightly attacks on Ukraine that killed at least 15 and wounded dozens resembled hundreds of previous raids. [2] The air raid sirens began howling just seconds before or after yet another wave of missiles struck apartment buildings, power plants and warehouses. [2] The number of people injured after a Russian drone fell in Kyiv on 15 October has risen to seven, three of whom are in hospital. [4] Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said seven people have now been injured as a result of an enemy UAV falling between residential buildings in the Pecherskyi district. [4] Three of the injured are being treated in Kyiv hospitals, while the others received medical assistance at the scene or were treated as outpatients. [4] In the Pecherskyi district of Kyiv, a Russian UAV crashed in an open area near a five-storey residential building. [4] The building’s façade, part of the roof and the window panes were damaged, as were the façades of two neighbouring three-storey residential buildings. [4] A car was on fire in the courtyard. [4]
Zelenskyy’s Conditions and European Support
Zelenskyy said he would pause strikes on Russian energy targets again only if the US supplied more Patriot air defence missiles. [1] Zelenskyy said he would be willing to pause strikes on Russian energy sites again, but only if the US supplied Ukraine with crucial Patriot interceptors. [1] The Ukrainian president told the newspaper he would now only halt strikes on Russian oil infrastructure if the US supplied more Patriot air defence missiles. [5] Zelenskyy is due to meet European leaders in Brussels on Thursday as he pushes for tougher sanctions on Moscow and faster delivery of support from the European Union. [1] Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten has called on EU leaders to step up their game to ensure Ukraine wins the war against Russia. [1] The EU has already pledged $50 billion in support for Ukraine next year. [1] However, the sum falls far short of the $175 billion Kyiv plans to spend on its defences next year. [1] European leaders have also rallied around Zelensky, with the matter expected to dominate their summit in Brussels later on Thursday. [5] The UK would speed up delivery of lightweight multirole missiles to Kyiv. [5]
Differing Views on Effectiveness of Refinery Strikes
Kyiv’s focus on striking oil refineries is ineffective and counterproductive, another observer said. [2] Kyiv’s strategic priority is still the destruction of oil refineries, Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University told Al Jazeera. [2] However, Russia overcame the initial shock by transporting gas from refineries in Siberia and exporting it from neighbouring Belarus and Kazakhstan. [2] No economic collapse, massive joblessness or public protests followed the strikes, while Moscow continued its air raids, adding jet-powered drones that resemble cruise missiles and are hard to down with Ukraine’s existing air defence system. [2] What is the basis for Kyiv’s and its backers’ conviction that strikes on oil refineries and depots will lead to Russia’s strategic defeat before Ukraine is defeated? I don’t understand, he said. [2] However, Ukrainian attacks on data centres, bridges and factories where drones are assembled are far more effective, he said. [2] Recent strikes on data centres of Russian online giant Yandex and the state-run Sberbank resulted in disruptions of services in Russia and even former Soviet republics where Yandex operates its online payment, food delivery and taxi services. [2]
What to watch next: Zelenskyy is due to meet European leaders in Brussels on Thursday as he pushes for tougher sanctions on Moscow and faster delivery of support from the European Union.
