Typhoon Bavi Forecast to Skirt Taiwan Before China Landfall as Largest Storm There Since 1987
Typhoon Bavi Approaches Taiwan and China
Typhoon Bavi is currently about 1,000 km wide. [1] Bavi is forecast to skirt northern Taiwan before making landfall in China’s eastern Fujian province on Saturday evening. [1] Bavi is set to be the largest storm by size to hit Taiwan since 1987. [1] Bavi is expected to remain a dangerous storm impacting Taiwan and eastern China from Friday into Monday. [1] If Bavi maintains its forecast intensity, it would be the most powerful typhoon in the region since Super Typhoon Kong-rey in 2024. [1]
Potential Impacts and Expert Warnings
Bavi has spent a long time intensifying over the open Pacific, extracting energy from warm ocean and accumulating large amounts of moisture. [1] When Bavi would make landfall or get close to coastal regions, the damage could be catastrophic. [1] A small change in Bavi’s track could have a significant influence. [1] Some loss of wind intensity is anticipated starting Thursday, but Bavi will remain a dangerous storm as it impacts Taiwan and eastern China later Friday into Monday. [1] Japan’s meteorological agency has urged residents of Okinawa to remain on high alert on Friday and Saturday for violent winds, landslides, flooding and storm surges. [1]
Preparations in Taiwan, Japan and China
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te urged people to prepare supplies from food to torches. [1] President Lai Ching-te shared a video teaching people how to pull together an emergency grab bag that could give life support for three days. [1] Japan’s meteorological agency urged residents of Okinawa, the country’s southernmost prefecture, to remain on high alert on Friday and Saturday for violent winds, landslides, flooding and storm surges. [1] China’s National Meteorological Centre has issued the forecast for landfall in Fujian province on Saturday evening. [1]
US Midwest and Plains Severe Weather Alerts
Minor flooding is occurring along Willow Creek near Watertown in Codington County, South Dakota. [2] The Flood Warning continues for Willow Creek near Watertown affecting Codington County until further notice. [2] At 10:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 10.6 feet. [2] The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 10:00 PM CDT Wednesday was 10.7 feet. [2] A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for northern Ozaukee County and northeastern Washington County in southeastern Wisconsin until 200 AM CDT. [3] Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen in the warned area. [3] The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 1.5 inches in 1 hour. [3] Severe thunderstorms with 70 mph wind gusts were located along a line extending from 5 miles southwest of St. Francis to 10 miles north of Ruleton to 6 miles southeast of Bonny Reservoir in Kit Carson County, Colorado, moving east at 30 mph. [4] An automated site on the southeast side of St. Francis recorded a 59 MPH gust at 10:04 PM CT. [4] A severe thunderstorm with 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail was located over Sprague, or 14 miles south of Lincoln, in Gage County, Nebraska, moving east at 25 mph. [5]
Broader Context of Climate and El Nino
China, along with neighbouring Japan and Taiwan, are increasingly exposed to destructive weather events that scientists link to climate change. [1] This year is of particular concern because the expected emergence of El Nino could drive up temperatures and help fuel more frequent and intense typhoons. [1]
What to watch next: Bavi is forecast to remain a dangerous storm impacting Taiwan and eastern China later Friday into Monday, with Japan’s meteorological agency urging high alert status for Okinawa on Friday and Saturday.
