Trump Says US and Iran Hold Good Talks After Suspending Strikes
Reporting based primarily on dailymaverick.co.za.
Trump Announces Positive Talks With Iran
President Trump stated that the United States and Iran are engaged in good talks following the suspension of U.S. air strikes. [1] He told reporters that the United States is having “good talks” with Iran right now. [2] At a campaign rally in Michigan, Trump said of Iran that “You can’t bribe them. You’ve got to beat them, and we’ll beat the hell out of them. But we’ll see how it turns out. Right now, there are very friendly negotiations going on.” [1] He added that there is a good chance something could happen, and if it does, good, if it doesn’t, the United States would go back to doing what it was doing two days ago. [1] Trump expressed optimism that the negotiations could lead to a positive outcome while indicating readiness to resume previous actions if needed. [1]
US Suspends Bombing Campaign
Washington abruptly suspended a two-week campaign of air strikes on Iran on Saturday. [1] The decision came after 13 successive nights of intensifying bombing that killed scores in Iran and destroyed bridges and tunnels across the south as well as military targets. [1] Four U.S. service members were killed in return fire against U.S. bases in neighbouring states. [1] Trump’s decision to suspend U.S. attacks reflected advice from his military that the bombing had reached the limits of what it could achieve. [1] A U.S. official told Reuters that military commanders had advised the president they were running out of targets and that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, had expressed concern over the depletion of air munitions. [1] Trump dismissed suggestions that the U.S. faced munitions shortages, saying the military was rapidly rebuilding inventories depleted by shipments to Ukraine. [1] He said he would like more of “the more sophisticated stuff.” [1]
Iranian and Allied Responses
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Monday that messages were still being passed between the sides through mediators and Iran had not forsaken diplomacy, but reports that it requested negotiations were “fabricated.” [1] He stated that this is not in Iran’s DNA. [1] A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday that Iran would halt its own attacks as long as Trump’s self-imposed ceasefire continued. [1] Iran’s central military command later on Monday accused the U.S. of threatening vessels and oil tankers in its territorial waters and of “attempting to implement an illegal maritime blockade”, which it said “constitutes an escalation of the conflict in the region.” [1] Iranian state media outlets cited an “informed source” as saying that Iran had turned around six “offending ships” on Monday that had attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission. [1] Tehran also said it remained in control of the contested Strait of Hormuz. [1] Washington and Tehran reached an agreement in June on a framework for talks meant to take place by the end of August to resolve major issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme. [1] They have disputed the meaning of the memorandum’s language about the strait, with Washington insisting it requires Tehran to allow free travel, while Iran says it grants it the authority to supervise transit. [1]
Drone Attacks Hit Gulf Targets
Despite Trump’s optimism, Tehran appeared to quickly test the pause in the U.S. military campaign, with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq reporting drone attacks on Monday. [1] Saudi Arabia said it shot down drones aimed at petroleum targets, including in Riyadh. [1] It said they had been launched from Iraq by Iran-backed armed groups, and it reserved the right to respond. [1] Separately, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen said they had targeted the East-West Pipeline carrying oil to Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea port of Yanbu in retaliation for Saudi drone incursions. [1] Iran also struck civilian infrastructure in Gulf countries, calling it retaliation for U.S. strikes. [1]
Oil Prices Plunge on Ceasefire News
The end of the U.S. campaign after 13 successive nights of intensifying bombing and Trump’s remarks on talks sent oil prices tumbling. [1] U.S. crude fell 8.21% to $81.98 a barrel, and Brent fell to $87.77 per barrel, down 9.31% on the day. [1] Oil prices dip over 6% after US, Iran pause fighting. [2]
Public Opinion and Political Context
Public disapproval of the war has been weighing on Trump and his Republican Party ahead of November midterm elections in which they have to defend slim congressional majorities. [1] A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted over the weekend showed Trump’s approval rating ticking higher to 37%, up three points from last month when it tied the lowest of his presidency. [1] However, just one in three Americans support the Iran war, the lowest Reuters/Ipsos reading since the conflict’s early days, with most saying Trump has failed to explain his goals. [1] Approval of the conflict has been below 40% since the US and Israel launched strikes on February 28, a stark contrast to the opening months of other recent conflicts. [3]
What to watch next: Mediators hope that a temporary agreement to reopen the strait would accelerate talks for a more concrete deal under the June framework, while Trump has indicated he will resume strikes if the current negotiations fail. [1]
