Trump Rules Out Iran Attack Before US Midterms as Oil Prices Jump on Doomsday Clock
US President Donald Trump ruled out attacking Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, stating that Washington is holding productive discussions with Tehran amid reports of Pentagon planning for possible strikes and a surge in oil prices on the doomsday clock.
Trump Rules Out Pre-Midterm Strike
US President Donald Trump on Thursday ruled out attacking Iran before the midterm elections on November 3, saying Washington was holding “productive discussions” with Tehran. [1] Trump’s post on his Truth Social platform followed a surge in oil prices on Thursday driven by media reports suggesting potential new US strikes prior to those elections. [1] “I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both economically and militarily, and while the blockade will remain in full force and effect…we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections,” he wrote. [1] “We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he added, without providing additional details. [1] Trump said Thursday the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and that "productive" talks were underway, after reports of US preparations for possible large-scale strikes. [2] Trump’s statement came after several news sites reported that the Pentagon was preparing for a resumption of high-intensity strikes on Iran. [4]
Reports of Pentagon Strike Planning
The Atlantic magazine reported on Wednesday that the White House had asked the Pentagon to develop options to strike Iranian targets that could be used before the midterms. [1] The New York Times published a similar report on Thursday, saying the plans were being developed despite Trump’s “ambivalence.” [1] The Atlantic also reported Trump is weighing attacking Iran before the US midterm elections. [4] Axios, which is seen as close to Trump and his aides, reported that the Pentagon was preparing for a resumption of high-intensity strikes on Iran. [4]
Oil Price Surge and Regional Tensions
The rise in crude oil prices has also been fueled by persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic chokepoint for the global oil trade — as well as hostilities between Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia. [1] In a recent sign of those tensions, an oil tanker sailing off the north coast of Qatar reported being struck “by multiple projectiles,” causing an unspecified number of casualties, the UKMTO maritime agency said Wednesday. [1] Brent, the international oil benchmark, was trading up 4.5 percent on Thursday, amid the reports and confirmation that Iran had attacked a new vessel in the Gulf. [4] One tanker was hit on Wednesday off the coast of Qatar in the Gulf, about 500km west of the Strait of Hormuz, and one was attacked off the coast of Oman outside the waterway. [4] Direct fighting between the US and Iran has all but subsided, even as the two countries tussle to control the flow of oil and gas through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. [4] On that front, the US appeared to have the upper hand, with energy analytics firm Kpler reporting that oil flows through Hormuz hit almost 90 percent of pre-war levels in late September. [4] Energy prices remain high, posing a liability for Trump as he heads into the mid-term elections that will determine control of Congress. [4] In the last month alone, diesel prices have risen 14 percent to around $6 per gallon in the US. [4] Middle Eastern refineries are still not operating at full capacity, and the flow of refined petroleum products through Hormuz is roughly half of pre-war levels. [4] The US-Israeli attack on Iran has spiralled into a larger regional war, the focal point of which is now Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and its allies are trying to roll back the Houthis after they launched a sweeping offensive down the Red Sea coast last month. [4]
Voter Dissatisfaction and Political Stakes
Polls suggest that US voters are strongly dissatisfied over rising fuel prices, linked to the conflict launched by the United States and Israel against Iran in February. [1] The US leader has repeatedly insisted in recent weeks that the United States has effectively won the Iran war, despite ongoing unrest and a recent security threat that forced the withdrawal of American bombers from a base in England. [1] But Trump’s claims that prices will fall as soon as the Iran war is over have so far fallen on deaf ears with voters. [1] The midterm elections will shape the final two years of Trump’s presidential term as his Republican Party risks losing its current grip on Congress. [1] Although Trump is not on the ballot, he is heavily involved in the campaign, holding numerous rallies in an attempt to limit the damage or even turn the political tide. [1] Trump has warned he faces a possible third impeachment if Democrats retake the House of Representatives, and the White House is preparing for a slew of investigations into corruption and abuse of power. [1]
Trump Clarifies Rally Comments on Iran
Trump has warned he faces a possible third impeachment if Democrats retake the House of Representatives, and the White House is preparing for a slew of investigations into corruption and abuse of power. [1] The US president also on Thursday sought to calm a furore over his comments at a rally earlier this week that Iran could “take out” the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego. [1] Trump, 80, blamed the “fake and artificial news” for misinterpreting the remarks, which Democrats pounced on. [1] “In actuality, what I was talking about was that a temporary increase in the price of gasoline is a small price to pay for Iran not having a nuclear weapon and, if you want to see a big price, can you imagine what it would be like if they bombed San Diego and/or Los Angeles?” Trump said on Truth Social. [1]
What to watch next: The midterm elections on November 3 will determine control of Congress, with Trump heavily involved in the campaign through numerous rallies.
