Seven Ethiopian Armed Groups Form Alliance to Oust Federal Government in One of the Most Dangerous Countries

Seven Ethiopian armed groups including the Tigray People's Liberation Front, Amhara Fano militias and Oromo Liberation Army have formed an anti-government alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's regime and establishing a transitional government, raising fears of renewed war in Africa's second-most populous nation and one of the most dangerous countries. [2][5]

Alliance Formation

The alliance was announced after more than a year of talks among the groups. [2][5] Fano leader Zemene Kasse will chair the alliance. [2][5] TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa stated that the groups formed the alliance to remove the regime and facilitate a transitional government. [2][5] In a statement read live on Tigray TV, Zemene Kasse described the ruling power in Addis Ababa as a "dictatorial and genocidal regime" that is "pushing Ethiopia toward total disintegration." [2][5] The Ethiopian federal government has not yet responded to requests for comment on the alliance. [2][5] Professor Yohannes Woldemariam noted that the fact these groups are prepared to set aside their differences is significant because the divide and rule strategy of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is being undermined. [2]

Participating Armed Groups

The alliance comprises Tigrayan forces, Amhara nationalist Fano militias, the Oromo Liberation Army, Ogaden National Liberation Front, Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul People's Liberation Movement and Gumuz People's Democratic Movement. [2][5] The groups involved have clashed in the past, with Fano fighting alongside Ethiopian federal forces during the Tigray war. [2][5] The groups also have territorial disputes, including over Western Tigray, a contested area between Amhara and Tigray that has been administered by Amhara nationalists since the end of the war. [2][5] Amanuel Assefa said the groups will sit at the table later to solve their problems peacefully. [2][5]

Military Buildup and Risks in One of the Most Dangerous Countries

Both the Ethiopian government and TPLF have massed troops along the northern state border in recent months, according to the African Union. [2][5] Regional specialist Kjetil Tronvoll cast doubt on the alliance's effort to overthrow the federal government, which possesses numerous drones. [2][5] He described it as a sacrificial war for the rebels and said he is not sure they will be able to sustain such a war. [2][5] Tronvoll added that if they coordinate as a military command it may make a difference because it is a potential four to five fronts that the government will have to deal with, which might be a challenge, but he questioned what might come after any takeover given the armed groups' different ideologies. [2][5]

Historical Context of Conflicts

Ethiopia has been plagued by armed conflicts in Oromia and Amhara regions since 2018 and 2023 respectively, following a prior war in Tigray that killed some 600,000 people. [2][5] Federal forces have been fighting the Oromo Liberation Army, which the government has designated a terrorist organisation, since 2018 in central Oromia. [2][5] The Fano, traditional self-defence militias of the Amhara ethnic group, took up arms against the government in April 2023 after federal authorities moved to disarm them. [2][5] The group is particularly active in rural areas. [2][5]

What to watch next is whether the alliance can sustain coordinated military action across multiple fronts against government forces equipped with numerous drones while also addressing internal territorial disputes among the participating groups. [2][5]