Seven Ethiopian Armed Groups Form Alliance for Survival Against Federal Government ww3 map

Seven Ethiopian armed groups including the TPLF, Fano militias and OLA have formed an anti-government alliance named Alliance for Survival to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's regime and establish a transitional government as detailed in recent ww3 map reporting.

Formation of the Alliance for Survival

Seven Ethiopian armed groups have formed an alliance against the federal government, an official of the Tigray People's Liberation Front said. [1] The groups announced their coalition to remove the regime and facilitate a transitional government. [1] [2] The alliance includes Tigrayan forces, Amhara nationalist Fano militias, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul People's Liberation Movement and the Gumuz People's Democratic Movement. [1] These organizations cover groups from half of Ethiopia's 12 regional states. [3] TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa said the groups have been talking with each other for more than a year. [1] Fano leader Zemene Kasse will chair the alliance. [1] In a statement read live on Tigray TV, Kasse described the ruling power in Addis Ababa as a dictatorial and genocidal regime that is pushing Ethiopia toward total disintegration. [1]

Background of Participating Armed Groups

Federal forces have been fighting the OLA since 2018 in central Oromia. [1] The Fano took up arms against the government in April 2023 after federal authorities moved to disarm them. [1] The group is particularly active in rural areas. [2] The announcement comes after years of armed conflict in Oromia and Amhara. [3] The government has been fighting the OLA, which it has designated a terrorist organisation, since 2018. [2] The Fano, traditional self-defence militias of the Amhara ethnic group, turned against the federal government in an armed insurgency less than a year after the Tigray war ended. [3]

Seven Ethiopian armed groups announce anti-government Alliance for Survival. — Source: africanews

Recent Tensions and Troop Buildups

Both the government and the TPLF have massed troops along the border of the northern state in recent months, according to the African Union. [1] This has raised fears of a return to the war that killed some 600,000 people. [1] Renewed tensions exist in the northern Tigray region, where a two-year civil war left hundreds of thousands dead and displaced millions. [3] An African-Union peace deal ended that war in 2022, but there have been fears of a return to full-scale conflict, with both sides accusing each other of violating that agreement. [3] The 2020-2022 war followed a power struggle between Abiy and the TPLF. [4]

Expert Assessments of the Alliance

Yohannes Woldemariam, a professor of international relations at the University of Colorado, told RFI that despite regional divisions, the fact that these groups are prepared to set aside their differences is significant. [1] The divide and rule strategy of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is being undermined as a result. [1] Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist at Oslo New University College in Norway, cast doubt on the alliance's effort to overthrow the federal government, which possesses numerous drones. [1] Describing it as a sacrificial war for the rebels, he told AFP he is not sure they will be able to sustain such a war. [2] If they coordinate as a military command, it may make a difference as a potential four to five fronts that the government will have to deal with, though it might be a challenge. [2] He questioned what might come after any takeover, given the armed groups' different ideologies. [2]

Seven Ethiopian rebel groups announce new anti-government alliance for survival. — Source: bbc

Historical Clashes and Territorial Disputes

Despite the announcement, doubts remain over an alliance between groups that have clashed in the past. [1] Fano fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces during the Tigray war. [1] The groups also have territorial disputes. [2] Western Tigray, a contested area between Amhara and Tigray, has been administered by Amhara nationalists since the end of the war. [2] Amanuel said the groups will sit at the table later to solve their problems peacefully. [1] Amhara's Fano group fought alongside federal forces during the Tigray war but turned against the federal government in an armed insurgency after refusing government orders to disarm. [3]

Broader Context of Ethiopian Conflicts ww3 map

Ethiopia has been plagued by armed conflicts in its two most populous regions, Oromia and Amhara. [1] The country held a general election in June, with Abiy's Prosperity Party retaining its overwhelming parliamentary majority. [3] The Fano and OLA rebel groups rejected the election and its results. [3] The Tigray region and its six million inhabitants were completely excluded from the poll. [3] The announcement of the Alliance for Survival coalition comes months after reports of an alleged alliance between TPLF and neighbouring Eritrea. [3] Abiy responded by saying he had faith in Ethiopia's defensive capabilities. [3] Ethiopia's government alleges cooperation among Eritrea, the TPLF faction led by party chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, and elements of Fano. [4] Eritrea and the TPLF deny cooperation. [4]

What to watch next: Both the government and the TPLF have massed troops along the Tigray border in recent months according to the African Union, fuelling fears of a return to full-scale conflict after the 2022 Pretoria agreement.