Saudi Arabia Prepares Offensive to Retake Bab al-Mandab from Houthis
Saudi Arabia is planning a major offensive against the Houthis in Yemen, led by Yemeni government forces with Saudi air support, aimed at retaking control of the Bab al-Mandab strait in the Red Sea to restore global shipping access. [2]
Saudi Offensive Plans
Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, with options being considered including a coastal push to secure the Red Sea shipping route or an assault on multiple fronts, regional and Western officials told Reuters. [2] The operation, expected to be launched in the coming weeks, will be led by Yemeni forces on the ground, which are overseen by Riyadh, and supported by Saudi air strikes, according to six people with knowledge of the preparations. [2] The Saudis are considering two possible options for the assault, the Gulf and Yemeni officials said: Either a narrowly focused attack on the area around Bab al-Mandab or a broader offensive that also includes other synchronized attacks on multiple fronts around Yemen, in the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf. [2] More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized in the offensive, depending on the scale, the officials all said. [2] A key objective of the planned Saudi offensive, which hasn't been previously reported, is aimed at reversing the rapid gains made by the Houthis last month when they advanced down the coast and seized control of the Bab al-Mandab strait, according to the people with knowledge of the plans, including Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats. [2] Riyadh has concluded it cannot enter new Yemeni peace negotiations with the Houthis while the militants remain in control of Bab al-Mandab, giving them significant global leverage, the Western diplomats and Gulf official said. [2] The six people with knowledge of the Saudi preparations couldn't give a precise timing for the launch of the offensive, with their estimates ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November. [2] Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected an offensive to be narrowly focused and certainly more modest in scope than the Saudi-led operation in 2015 that sought to rout the militants. [2] "As much as they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before the Houthis controlled territory along Bab al-Mandab," he added. [2] "Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic." [2] Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, cautioned that the outcome of any offensive by the Saudis against the Houthis would depend on how ground forces perform. [2] "The priority so far has been to defend the positions on the ground and stabilize the front, but certainly they will be going on the offensive," he said. [2] "Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces." [2]
Role of International Allies
Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces are planning a major offensive against Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists that would include a coastal push to secure the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key global shipping chokepoint on the Red Sea. [1] Washington, Saudi Arabia's most powerful ally, is providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, according to one of the Western diplomats. [2] However, the extent of support may be limited. [2] Reuters has previously reported that US President Donald Trump rebuffed requests by the de facto Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support such as air strikes. [2] Turkey and Pakistan, with whom Saudi Arabia signed a joint defense agreement last month, have provided military equipment that the kingdom is using in Yemen, Pakistani and regional officials said. [2] Last month, Pakistan sent four cargo planes with equipment including air defense systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone systems to Aden, the seat of Yemen's Saudi-backed government, a Pakistani government official said. [2] Pakistani military advisers are also on the ground with Saudi counterparts to support Yemeni forces, according to a second Pakistani official, the Gulf official and a Western diplomat. [2] Turkish drones, bought by Saudi Arabia before the current war, have also been deployed over Yemen, they added. [2] One of the kingdom's key concerns in launching a new offensive in Yemen is how to protect its oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks, according to regional officials who said Riyadh has asked several allies for help with defensive systems. [2] Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help defend the kingdom's land borders and help with drone and missile interceptions, according to the second Pakistani official, who said the troops arrived in waves beginning last year but also after the recent escalation. [2] Islamabad hasn't decided to send troops into Yemen in a combat capacity, the official said. [2] France, meanwhile, has announced it will send defensive systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port city of Yanbu. [2]
Saudi forces prepare offensive to retake Bab al-Mandab strait from Houthis in Yemen. — Source: jerusalempost
Strategic Importance of Bab al-Mandab
Bab al-Mandab is the southern exit passage of the Red Sea, a key shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia that's assumed even more importance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by the Iran conflict. [2] A satellite imagery shows Bab el Mandeb Strait, as Iran threatens using Yemen's Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea. [2] The operation, expected to be launched in the coming weeks, will be led by Yemeni forces on the ground, which are overseen by Riyadh, and supported by Saudi air strikes, according to six people with knowledge of the preparations. [2] Saudi Arabia entered neighboring Yemen's civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition in support of the internationally recognized government, which the Houthis had driven out of the capital Sanaa. [2] A truce agreed between the warring parties in 2022 largely held until this year, when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure in a spillover from the Iran war. [2] The Houthis have become Iran's most formidable ally in the Middle East since Israel's degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past three years. [2] A Saudi-directed offensive against the group would mark a new flashpoint in a region engulfed by conflict since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent US-Israeli war on Iran. [2]
Challenges Facing Yemeni Ground Forces
Any ground operation inside Yemen will rely on the disparate coalition of Yemeni fighting factions that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates armed and trained at earlier stages of the civil war when the conflict ground to a bloody stalemate. [2] "Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organized or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force. And they are being tested right now, as the Houthis apply pressure across several fronts at once," said Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha. [2] Yemeni forces were further fractured last winter when southern fighters backed by the UAE tried to take territory in the east and announce secession plans, leading to their defeat by Saudi-backed fighters after a series of clashes. [2] Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi group and the US military didn't immediately respond to requests for comment about the Saudi plans. [2]
Saudi and Yemeni forces prepare offensive to retake Bab al-Mandab strait from Houthis in Yemen. — Source: middleeasteye
Regional Spillover Risks
Eritrea and Ethiopia have severed all diplomatic ties after accusing one another of engaging in hostile actions, in a major flare-up that could foreshadow another war on the volatile Red Sea. [3] Ethiopia on Thursday announced it was expelling 10 Eritrean diplomats and closing its embassy in Eritrea’s capital of Asmara, after reports of explosions in Addis Ababa. [3] The strike punctured Addis Ababa’s relative calm despite Ethiopia’s federal government battling an alliance of rebel movements opposed to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia’s regions of Tigray, Amhara and Afar. [3] Western and regional officials in Addis Ababa confirmed to Middle East Eye the sound of explosions in the capital due to a drone strike. [3] AFP reported that the explosion rocked the Ethiopian National Defence Force headquarters in the Tor Hayloch area of Addis Ababa. [3] In a statement, Ethiopia accused Eritrea of engaging in “direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence” against it. [3] Eritrea said in response it was severing all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, accusing it of pursuing “an agenda of incessant hostility” against it. [3] “In parallel with these aggressive intentions, Ethiopia has gone further to host, train, and provide arms to an assortment of what it calls ‘Eritrean armed opposition groups’ to stoke internal conflict for ‘regime change’ in Eritrea,” Eritrea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. [3] Eritrea and Ethiopia have been at odds for months, with regional diplomats warning that ties were deteriorating fast. [3] The two briefly formed an alliance to fight the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling party in Ethiopia's Tigray region, during Ethiopia’s 2020-2022 civil war. [3] Since then, they have returned to being bitter foes. [3] Addis Ababa has made claims against Eritrea’s Red Sea coastline and accuses Eritrea of supporting rebel groups like the TPLF, which Asmara denies. [3] "[Abiy Ahmed] has a two-waters strategy like Israel. Only for him it is from the Nile River to the Red Sea," Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh told MEE in an exclusive interview from Asmara last month. [3] With fighting already flaring between Ethiopia’s federal government and the TPLF, a breakdown in relations with Eritrea could widen the war to the Red Sea at a time when Yemen and Sudan are both in conflict. [3] The risk is that the conflict could draw in regional players, including Egypt, Turkey, Somalia, and the Gulf states. [3] The TPLF is already aligned with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which are fighting the Rapid Support Forces, a militia accused of genocide that is backed by the UAE and has training camps in Ethiopia. [3] Eritrea is aligned with Egypt and Saudi Arabia in supporting the SAF. [3] One of Ethiopia’s staunchest supporters is the UAE, which has provided drones and other military supplies to Abiy Ahmed’s forces. [3] Saleh also told MEE that Asmara believes the UAE is cooperating with Israel against Asmara. [3] Israel has a historical precedent for supporting Ethiopia. [3] In the late 1970s and late 1980s, Israel provided arms to Ethiopia's Marxist Derg government, which were used against Eritrean fighters. [3]
What to watch next: The operation could involve more than 100,000 Yemeni troops in either a narrow coastal push around Bab al-Mandab or a broader multi-front assault including Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf, while the US provides intelligence and military advisers but will not join in direct combat operations or provide air strikes, and Turkey and Pakistan supply defensive military equipment, drones, anti-drone systems and advisers with Pakistan having also deployed 30,000-40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia for border defense and interception of Houthi attacks.
