Mekelle Falls to Ethiopian Forces as TPLF Withdraws from Tigray Capital

Ethiopian federal forces and allied militias have seized control of Mekelle in one of the most dangerous countries amid renewed clashes that threaten broader instability across the Horn of Africa. The Tigray People's Liberation Front withdrew its fighters from the city to avoid risks to civilians.

Capture of Mekelle

Ethiopian federal forces and allied militias have regained control of Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region. [4] A source close to the pro-government militia Tigray Peace Forces stated that its fighters entered the centre of Mekelle on Saturday afternoon, followed by the Ethiopian military. [2] Federal troops were reported patrolling the city and manning key institutions on Sunday. [2] Two residents in Mekelle told the BBC that pro-government forces now control the city and TPLF forces have abandoned it. [3] Communications were restored for the first time in more than a week. [2] Businesses and shops remained closed, with owners moving stock to safer locations fearing looting and vandalism. [2] One resident said there are no police and civilians had to organise themselves for security. [2] A local business owner reported that civilians looted government offices and hauled away equipment from police headquarters as rebel fighters withdrew. [2]

TPLF Offensive and Strategy

The TPLF launched a fresh offensive against the federal government on 23 September. [1] This prompted a rapid counteroffensive that pushed into rebel-held territory. [4] The TPLF stated it had pulled out of Mekelle to avoid risks to civilians and would temporarily relocate its regional government elsewhere. [2] TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael said the fighting was a continuation of the previous war and that his fighters would keep attacking and defending Tigray from its enemies. [1] He implied the group would continue guerrilla-style attacks. [2] The TPLF also pulled out of Mekelle during the 2020-2022 civil war, apparently to spare the city from destruction. [2] After federal troops take control of Mekelle, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is likely to leave regional security in the hands of the Tigray Peace Force. [1]

Ethiopian federal forces patrol the streets of captured Mekelle in Tigray. — Source: rfi

Regional Diplomatic Response

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi urged dialogue not confrontation ahead of a meeting in El-Alamein with leaders from Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan. [1] The presidents of Egypt, Somalia, Sudan and Eritrea were set to meet in the Egyptian city of Alamein on Sunday to discuss the conflict. [2] Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of backing the TPLF with support from Sudan and Egypt, allegations all three countries deny. [1] Diplomatic ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea were severed last week and an Egyptian diplomat was expelled. [3] Al-Sisi said Egypt opposed foreign interference in African states and called for relations to be based on mutual respect, good neighbourliness, dialogue and consultation. [1]

Risk of Wider Conflict

Analysts say the fighting threatens to escalate into a wider regional conflict in one of the most dangerous countries. [2] The renewed fighting threatens to destabilise the Horn of Africa and unravel the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement. [1] The African Union has urged restraint, warning that renewed tensions threaten the 2022 peace agreement that ended the previous hostilities in Tigray. [2] Eritrea accuses landlocked Ethiopia of planning to invade and seize access to its coastline. [2] The United States Department of State called for restraint and dialogue on all sides. [3]

Ethiopian federal forces patrol the streets of Mekelle after seizing the Tigray capital from TPLF rebels. — Source: thenewarab

Humanitarian and Security Impact

The United Nations has warned that the deteriorating security situation in northern Ethiopia is severely disrupting humanitarian work. [3] One resident in Mekelle said mobile phone services appear to have resumed in parts of the city. [3] The TPLF launched attacks on federal forces last month and Ethiopian troops were reported to have taken full control of Mekelle. [1] Fighters loyal to the TPLF seized the airport on Sept. 23, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to Mekelle and the Tigrayan cities of Axum and Shire. [1]

International Calls and Previous War Legacy

The civil war was one of the most deadly conflicts this century, with the AU's mediator estimating some 600,000 people died as the fighting drove the region to the precipice of famine. [3] The TPLF has long been the dominant force in Tigray, ousting a government-appointed administration earlier this year. [2] Ethiopia has also accused Egypt of supporting the rebels, leading to the expulsion of an Egyptian diplomat. [3] The US Department of State called for restraint and dialogue ahead of the diplomatic meeting about the conflict in Egypt. [3]

What to watch next: Observers will monitor whether the TPLF continues guerrilla-style attacks as it did during the previous war and whether the meeting in El-Alamein produces any joint statement on dialogue.