Safest Countries in the World See Iran Conflict Spill Over Into Gulf Shipping Lanes
US President Donald Trump ruled out attacking Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, stating that Washington is holding productive discussions with Tehran amid spiking oil prices and ongoing regional tensions stemming from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran that began in February. The safest countries in the world now confront direct spillover from those tensions into Gulf shipping lanes and energy markets. [1] [2]
Trump's Declaration on Iran Policy Before US Midterms
US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that while Iran faces severe economic and military challenges and the blockade remains in force, no attack will occur prior to the US midterm elections. [1] Trump wrote that Iran is in very bad condition both economically and militarily and that the blockade will remain in full force and effect. [1] He added that Washington will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3. [2] Trump stated that the United States is having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. [1] [2] The statement followed media reports suggesting potential new US strikes prior to those elections. [2] Polls suggest that US voters are strongly dissatisfied over rising fuel prices linked to the conflict launched by the United States and Israel against Iran in February. [1] Trump has repeatedly insisted in recent weeks that the United States has effectively won the Iran war despite ongoing unrest. [1] The midterm elections will shape the final two years of Trump’s presidential term as his Republican Party risks losing its current grip on Congress. [1]
Media Reports and Oil Market Reaction
The statement follows media reports from The Atlantic and The New York Times that the White House asked the Pentagon to prepare strike options on Iran that could be used before the midterms despite Trump’s ambivalence. [1] Axios reported that the Pentagon was preparing for a resumption of high-intensity strikes on Iran. [2] The Atlantic reported that the White House had asked the Pentagon to develop options to strike Iranian targets that could be used before the midterms. [1] The New York Times published a similar report saying the plans were being developed despite Trump’s ambivalence. [1] Oil prices surged with Brent crude up 4.5 percent driven by the reports Iranian attacks on vessels in the Gulf and reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz where refined petroleum products are at roughly half of pre-war levels. [1] [2] Brent the international oil benchmark was trading up 4.5 percent on Thursday amid the reports and confirmation that Iran had attacked a new vessel in the Gulf. [2] Energy prices remain high posing a liability for Trump as he heads into the mid-term elections that will determine control of Congress. [2] In the last month alone diesel prices have risen 14 percent to around $6 per gallon in the US. [2] Middle Eastern refineries are still not operating at full capacity and the flow of refined petroleum products through Hormuz is roughly half of pre-war levels. [2]
Putin meets Pezeshkian and pledges to help end the war with the United States. — Source: middleeasteye
Maritime Incidents and Houthi-Saudi Escalation
Iranian attacks on vessels in the Gulf have included one tanker hit on Wednesday off the coast of Qatar in the Gulf about 500km west of the Strait of Hormuz and one attacked off the coast of Oman outside the waterway. [2] An oil tanker sailing off the north coast of Qatar reported being struck by multiple projectiles causing an unspecified number of casualties the UKMTO maritime agency said. [1] The US-Israeli attack on Iran has spiralled into a larger regional war the focal point of which is now Yemen where Saudi Arabia and its allies are trying to roll back the Houthis after they launched a sweeping offensive down the Red Sea coast last month. [2] Saudi Arabia backs Yemen’s internationally recognised government against the Houthis which have received arms and training from Iran. [2] This week the kingdom activates a new joint defence pact with its partners Turkey and Pakistan. [2] Middle East Eye was the first to reveal that Turkey would be sending weapons systems including air defence batteries and troops to defend the kingdom. [2] Pakistan also told CNN it was sending weapons to help protect Saudi Arabia. [2] Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Saudi Arabia was supporting Yemen's legitimate government in a battle against the Houthis but that this is a defensive agreement and Turkey will not send troops to another country to carry out attacks on its territory. [2] At least three people were killed on Wednesday after the Houthis claimed responsibility for strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. [2] The Houthis struck Riyadh’s airport a second time on Thursday with video footage shared on social media revealing at least two drones slamming into the facility. [2] Officials in the region told Middle East Eye that at least one Saudi commercial aircraft was severely damaged. [2] Lufthansa said on Thursday it would cancel all flights to Riyadh until 16 October. [2]
Pezeshkian-Putin Meeting in Turkmenistan
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Russian President Vladimir Putin who pledged to do everything in his power to help end the Middle East war noting Iran's real efforts to settle the situation and positive evolution in Iran-Russia relations. [3] Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian on Thursday and promised to do everything to help end the war in the Middle East. [3] Putin said Russia is ready to do everything that is in its power to contribute to the settlement of this situation and added that Iran had made real efforts to end the war since US-Israeli attacks began on 28 February. [3] Putin also noted the positive evolution in relations between Iran and Russia. [3] Both leaders arrived on Thursday evening ahead of a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in the resort of Avaza on Turkmenistan's Caspian Sea coast. [3] Pezeshkian is attending the summit as a special guest. [3] The meeting came in the same week that the Iranian leader said negotiations with Washington were meaningless. [3] Pezeshkian and Putin emphasized the advancement of joint projects in energy agriculture transportation and trade. [4] [5]
Iranian President Pezeshkian informs Putin of new US-Iran negotiation proposals. — Source: anadolu
Prospects for US-Iran Negotiations
Pezeshkian informed Putin that Iran and the US have exchanged new proposals for negotiations while the two leaders discussed expanding economic and strategic cooperation in energy agriculture transportation and trade. [4] [5] Iran and the US exchanged new proposals for negotiations Pezeshkian told Putin. [4] The two leaders emphasized accelerating joint projects in energy agriculture transportation and trade. [5] This disclosure came within the broader context of the ongoing conflict that began on February 28. [3] Pezeshkian’s statement that negotiations with Washington were meaningless occurred in the same week as the meeting with Putin. [3]
Broader Regional and Economic Impacts
The conflict has spiraled into a larger regional war focused on Yemen with Iran-backed Houthis clashing with Saudi Arabia and its allies including new defense pacts involving Turkey and Pakistan. [2] Direct fighting between the US and Iran has all but subsided even as the two countries tussle to control the flow of oil and gas through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. [2] On that front the US appeared to have the upper hand with energy analytics firm Kpler reporting that oil flows through Hormuz hit almost 90 percent of pre-war levels in late September. [2] While Qatar Kuwait Bahrain and the UAE were hit the hardest after the US and Israel attacked Iran Saudi Arabia was relatively spared. [2] Trump’s claims that prices will fall as soon as the Iran war is over have so far fallen on deaf ears with voters. [1] Trump on Thursday sought to calm a furore over his comments at a rally earlier this week that Iran could take out the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego. [1] Trump blamed the fake and artificial news for misinterpreting the remarks. [1]
What to watch next: Continued Houthi strikes on Saudi airports and further tanker incidents in the Gulf could sustain pressure on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz while Pezeshkian and Putin continue coordination on ending the war.
