Safest Countries in the World Face New Risks as Trump Lifts Russian Diesel Sanctions amid Ukraine Conflict
Even the safest countries in the world face new risks from the decision by US President Donald Trump to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports after announcing a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply millions of tons of diesel to global markets. The move drew sharp criticism from Ukraine and the EU for funding Russia's war effort while Trump called for Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries and suggested replacing President Zelenskyy.
Trump's Diesel Deal with Russia
US President Donald Trump announced a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin under which Russia would supply 300,000 tons of diesel immediately and 500,000 tons in November, with deliveries reaching up to four million tons total in several rounds later. [1] Trump stated that the agreement followed a phone call with Putin and came after the US lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports. [1] The US Treasury Department issued a temporary general license allowing the supply of Russian diesel to the global market, with the waiver set to expire on April 7. [4] Diesel prices in the US stood unusually high ahead of the midterm elections on November 3. [1] Russia had banned diesel exports in July, and several Russian refineries had been damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks in recent weeks. [1] The International Energy Agency reported that the world lacked about 1.6 million barrels of diesel and marine gas oil per day in August due to challenges in the Middle East and Russia. [1]
Ukrainian and EU Reactions
Finland prepares to deliver F-16 ammunition to Ukraine within days. — Source: helsinkitimes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the diesel deal, stating that Russia expressed its gratitude for the lifted sanctions by dropping five glide bombs on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia. [1] Zelenskyy described the decision as unworthy of partners and called it a weak decision by strong partners. [5] He added that the move only fuels Putin and enables him to wage more war, and that at the moment when peace is being discussed the US is allowing Russia to export diesel. [4] Zelenskyy also said he believed the Ukrainian team was simply being used as a smokescreen and that this was not honest and not how partners should act. [4] EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that suspending sanctions on Russian diesel provides Moscow with more revenues to wage war and that this is not the time to ease pressure on Russia. [5] The European Commission stated that a ceasefire protecting global food supplies and energy infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia is needed, noting that Europe knows too well the hidden costs linked to over-reliance on Russian hydrocarbons. [5] Ukrainian officials described feeling blindsided by the US decision during talks on a possible energy ceasefire, with one senior official saying it felt like a trap that removes Kyiv's leverage and provides Russia revenue without requiring Moscow to stop attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. [4]
Trump's Demands on Ukraine and Zelenskyy
Trump stated that it is time for Ukraine to have a new president because Zelenskyy has not done enough to end the war. [1] Trump claimed that no war would have started if he had been president in 2022 and that the war resulted from incompetence. [1] Trump repeated his demand that Ukraine stop attacks on Russian oil refineries, saying Zelenskyy should stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia. [4] Ukrainian officials rejected the premise that Ukraine should halt its strikes unilaterally and insisted that any energy ceasefire must apply to both sides, with Russia also stopping attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. [4] US negotiators told the Ukrainian delegation that Washington would cut off intelligence sharing that has helped Kyiv identify and strike targets inside Russia if strikes on Russian refineries continued. [4] One senior Ukrainian official responded that Ukraine had not agreed to stop attacking Russian refineries and would not commit to doing so without reciprocal Russian action. [4]
Miami Talks on Ending the War
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discuss Ukraine war settlement in Miami. — Source: taipei-times US, Ukrainian and European officials met in Miami on Friday to discuss new ideas for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. [3] US envoy Steve Witkoff wrote that the constructive discussions tackled potential avenues to de-escalate and conclude the war with Russia ahead of winter and advance efforts toward a durable and lasting peace. [3] The meeting included the E3, the European Commission, Ukraine and NATO. [3] The discussions covered energy resilience, grain exports, security guarantees, longer-term arrangements for Ukraine’s and Europe’s security to prevent future conflict, supporting Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and economic prosperity, and EU accession for Ukraine. [3] US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the conflict had reached a potentially explosive impasse, with the failure to reach a negotiated settlement raising the risk of further escalation that could spread to neighboring NATO countries. [3] Rubio added that there is no military solution to this conflict. [3] The Kremlin said Trump conveyed his ideas about how to de-escalate the war to Putin during the Friday phone call and that Putin received the proposals with understanding. [5]
Ongoing Military Support and Strikes
Finland will send F-16 ammunition to Ukraine within days as part of its 35th military aid package worth about €1 million. [2] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the delivery following a telephone conversation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb. [2] Russian strikes killed at least 11 people in Zaporizhzhia including three children. [3] Zelenskyy linked the timing of the strikes to Russia's gratitude for the lifted sanctions. [1] Russian aerial bombs hit residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia, with at least 15 people killed according to Ukraine's state rescue service. [5] Ukrainian drones struck an oil loading terminal in Russia's Rostov-on-Don that handles petroleum products for export and supplies fuel to Russia's military. [4] Russia launched a drone attack followed by a missile strike on Kyiv on October 10, also targeting Ukrainian energy facilities. [4] Neither side had agreed to stop striking energy infrastructure. [4]
Broader Negotiating Tensions
Ukrainian officials felt the US decision undermined Kyiv's leverage in negotiations over an energy ceasefire. [4] The one-sided nature of proposed energy truces would leave Russia's campaign against Ukraine's energy system intact while protecting infrastructure that helps sustain the Russian war machine. [4] Ukrainian officials said Zelenskyy had repeatedly made clear that any energy ceasefire would have to apply to both sides. [4] One senior Ukrainian official said it was just stupid to bury the idea of an energy truce with the move to lift sanctions. [4] Events on the ground showed how little the announcement had changed, as strikes continued on both sides. [4] EU foreign ministers are set on Monday to formally add some 1,600 new individuals and entities to the EU's sanctions blacklist over the war in Ukraine. [5]
What to watch next: US, Ukrainian and European officials will continue diplomatic efforts on energy resilience, grain exports, security guarantees and EU accession while Finland delivers F-16 ammunition and both sides maintain strikes on energy targets without an agreed ceasefire.
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