Russian Forces Mass Three Armies to Seize Dobropillia Before Autumn
Russian forces are concentrating three armies and a third of their Rubicon drone crews on a 30-kilometre front to capture Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast before autumn, while Ukrainian commanders report routing the northern pincer aimed at encircling Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Russian Offensive on Dobropillia
Russian forces are pressing towards the city of Dobropillia, where reportedly as many as a third of all Rubicon crews have been deployed. [3] The aim of the attacks is for Russian soldiers to infiltrate the city before the leaves fall in autumn, allowing them to conduct urban warfare there. [3] The front towards Dobropillia is around 30 km long, and Ukrainian defenders there are facing three Russian armies: the 8th, the 41st, which arrived from Pokrovsk, and the 51st. [3] The 76th Airborne Division, as well as naval infantry units, have also been deployed there. [3] According to Prokopenko, Ukrainians are currently facing a major numerical disadvantage there. [3] The ratio is approximately one to six when comparing the numbers — personnel, forces and resources used by the enemy. [3] He also said that around a third of all 1,200 Rubicon crews had been deployed there. [3] The fact that they are concentrated in such numbers on this particular front suggests it is important to Russia. [3] Russian forces are seeking to reach the city before the leaves fall from the trees. [3] They managed something similar in Pokrovsk a year ago. [3] Russian forces are currently fighting for the village of Dobropillia, which lies just five kilometres from the city of the same name. [3]
Ukrainian Forces Facing Numerical Disadvantage
The situation on this part of the front was discussed by general Denys Prokopenko, commander of the Azov 1st Corps of Ukraine’s National Guard. [3] Prokopenko is tasked with defending the area near Dobropillia. [3] As he said this week, the situation there is quite difficult. [3] According to Prokopenko, Russian losses are increasing. [3] According to our estimates, Russian units lost 123 soldiers a day on the Dobropillia front in July and 135 in August. [3] This means that Russian forces are currently losing around one-tenth of their total personnel losses on this section of the front. [3] Russian forces are seeking to infiltrate deep enough to fight Ukrainian operators directly. [3] According to Prokopenko, 200 soldiers attack every day across the wider front, and it is difficult to strike all of them. [3] According to the commander, Russian forces failed to meet their objective of reaching the city of Dobropillia by the end of summer. [3] Their summer activity will peak in September. [3] They are now racing against time, as the weather will worsen later in autumn and the leaves will fall, making infiltration more difficult. [3]
Ukrainian forces down Russian jet-powered Shahed drone with new interceptor. — Source: ukrainskapravda
Ukrainian Commanders' Assessment of the Northern Pincer
Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps, has said the northern pincer of Russian forces, which was meant to encircle Ukrainian fortress cities in Donetsk Oblast, has effectively been routed. [4] The Russians had a plan for the Donetsk front: to encircle the fortress cities from the north and south. [4] From the south, the encirclement was to come through Dobropillia; from the north, it was to come through the salient that is now being cut off, towards Sviatohirsk and then on to Barvinkove. [4] That is where the two Russian pincers – the Dobropillia pincer from the south and the Sviatohirsk pincer from the north – were supposed to meet. [4] The northern pincer has effectively been routed and destroyed. [4] Biletskyi reported that Russian infiltration near Dobropillia was stopped last year and that the situation there remains difficult but under control. [4] On 15 September, the 3rd Army Corps reported mopping up 75 sq km and liberating a further 10 sq km as part of counteroffensive operations in the northern part of Donetsk Oblast. [4] It is now critically important to paralyse logistics, paralyse the rear and not give the Russians the opportunity to renew this advance. [4] Then they'll have to assault the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka-Kostiantynivka agglomeration head-on. [4] Assaulting these cities head-on is a far more painful and costly undertaking for them than trying to encircle them and effectively take them without a fight. [4]
Nuclear Safety Risks at Zaporizhzhia
A new analysis by Greenpeace Ukraine found no evidence of the claimed Ukrainian strikes. [1] Analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery conducted by MIS found no evidence to support Russian claims of a Ukrainian artillery strike on 10 February 2026 or a UAV attack on 4 June 2026 targeting the Ferrosplavna 330 kV switchyard near the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant. [1] The analysis found no evidence of the claimed attack by over 20 Ukrainian UAVs on 4 June 2026 as asserted by Russia. [1] The damage attributed by Russia to an alleged drone attack on 4 June was already present before that date. [1] Since Russian troops seized the plant in 2022, the ZNPP has experienced 26 complete losses of off-site power. [1] Fourteen of these cases have occurred since February 2026. [1] Russia is intentionally carrying out sabotage and deliberately disabling ZNPP power supply lines. [1] Repeated cases of off-site power loss at the ZNPP are the result of Russian military attacks on Ukraine's energy grid and sabotage at the ZNPP and its associated open switchyards. [1] Off-site power supply is critical for nuclear safety as it is required to run key reactor safety systems, including pumps that ensure the cooling of nuclear fuel in reactor cores and spent fuel pools. [1] The ZNPP has six reactor units and six spent fuel pools containing hundreds of tonnes of highly radioactive nuclear fuel. [1] Every complete loss of off-site power forces the ZNPP to rely on emergency diesel generators to maintain critical nuclear safety functions. [1]
Russian forces concentrate three armies on a 30-kilometre front to capture Dobropillia before autumn. — Source: euobserver
Ukrainian Air Defence Advances Against Jet-Powered Drones
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said a jet-powered Shahed drone had been shot down by a Ukrainian-developed interceptor. [2] Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mykhailo Drapatyi delivered a report. [2] Importantly, there is another positive result from testing interceptors against jet-powered Shaheds – a successful shoot-down. [2] In recent months, Russia has increasingly relied on jet-powered drones in attacks on Ukraine, which are much faster than conventional Shaheds. [2] In August, the number of jet-powered Shaheds used by Russia to attack Ukraine increased by at least 67%, from approximately 1,500 to more than 2,500. [2] We will scale this up. [2] Step by step, we are finding answers to Russian threats and creating our own Ukrainian means of pressure on the enemy. [2] On 30 August, Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara said Ukraine already has four potential interceptors capable of shooting down jet-powered Shaheds, which had undergone field testing. [2]
Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes and Russian Logistics Attacks
Ukrainian drones attacked an airport in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. [3] Footage showing large explosions provides evidence of this. [3] The fire was also confirmed by NASA’s FIRMS system. [3] According to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, it was an operation by the SBU security service. [3] He said that damage to an An-12 military transport aircraft, two An-26 aircraft and three helicopters had been confirmed. [3] The General Staff wrote that these aircraft had been destroyed. [3] Russia has destroyed or damaged 250 Ukrainian Railways locomotives this year. [3] As part of its campaign against Ukrainian logistics and its terror against the population, Russia has been increasingly and intensively attacking Ukrainian trains. [3]
What to watch next: Russian forces are seeking to transition to urban warfare later in autumn and during the winter near Dobropillia while Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations that have already mopped up 75 sq km in the northern part of Donetsk Oblast.
