Iran War Prompts Egypt to Expand Military Drills with China as Xi Jinping Visits Cairo Amid current wars in the world

China's President Xi Jinping arrived in Egypt as the Iran war prompts Middle East countries to reassess security and economic alliances, with Egypt deepening ties with Beijing while questions grow about long-term US reliability amid current wars in the world.

Xi Jinping's Arrival in Egypt

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Egypt on Tuesday, his first visit to the Arab world's most populous nation in a decade. [1] Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi welcomed Xi at Cairo International Airport, where they walked a long red carpet flanked by uniformed soldiers, folk dancers and young Egyptians waving Chinese flags, as shown in Egyptian state TV footage. [1] Over the past week, Egyptian state media has highlighted Cairo's growing economic and military ties with Beijing and Egypt's role as the first Arab and African country to establish diplomatic ties with China 70 years ago. [1] Sissi wrote in an op-ed in state newspaper Al-Ahram that Egypt and China have become partners contributing together to strengthening the role of the Global South in the international system. [1] Xi's visit is the second leg of his second overseas trip this year, following his participation in a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan where he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and others. [1] In commentary published by Chinese state news agency Xinhua, Xi said the two countries were close brothers standing by each other in the face of imperialism and colonialism and that he looked forward to exploring a deeper partnership. [1] Egypt is often seen by foreign powers as a strategic linchpin in a volatile region riven by multiple conflicts because it borders Israel, Sudan and Libya and is home to the vital trade artery of the Suez Canal. [1] Xi is expected to visit India and the US later this month. [1]

Egypt's Push for Strategic Autonomy

Egypt hosted its second annual military exercises with China last month, launched last year as Beijing sought to chip away at US influence in the region. [1] The drills marked the first deployment of China's J-16 jets to Africa and a rare air combat drill involving the Chinese-made fighters and French-made Rafales, according to Chinese state media. [1] A Chinese air force tanker was also pictured refuelling a Rafale, offering Beijing a closer look at Western-made equipment. [1] Egypt receives about $1.3 billion a year in US military aid yet has sought deeper ties with Beijing since at least 2014, when recently elected Sisi travelled to China to sign a strategic partnership deal. [1] Cairo's messaging toward Washington has softened since then, but questions of American reliability and volatility raised by the wars in Gaza and Iran have reinforced its desire to diversify partnerships. [1] Egypt sees itself as moving toward greater strategic autonomy and wants strong relations with Washington, but also Beijing, Moscow, and Europe, according to H. A. Hellyer, a scholar at the Royal United States Institute think tank. [1] Chinese investment in Egypt has surged in recent years, with billions flowing into sectors such as manufacturing, ports, solar energy, green hydrogen and satellite technology. [1] Egypt was an obvious choice for Xi to visit because it is at the heart of a variety of regional issues, touching on Israel and the Palestinian issue, Africa, and the Persian Gulf issue, said Eric Olander, co-founder of the China Global South Project. [1] Last week, Xi hosted Jordan's King Abdullah in Beijing, where the issue of Palestinian rights featured prominently. [1]

Xi Jinping and Abdel Fattah el-Sissi walk red carpet at Cairo International Airport flanked by soldiers and dancers. — Source: middleeasteye

Regional Diplomatic Efforts on Iran

Several high-level regional diplomatic initiatives have signalled an effort to revive US-Iran negotiations. [2] Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, travelled to Tehran last month, followed by the foreign ministers of Oman and Qatar, each seeking to preserve the Islamabad memorandum of understanding signed by US President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, in June. [2] According to Iranian officials, Tehran delivered a consistent message to all three mediators that Washington should return to the Islamabad memorandum and work towards ending the wars across all regional fronts as the basis for renewed negotiations. [2] Iran and Oman have reached an agreement to open a temporary new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. [2]

Cycle of US-Iran Military Confrontation

Washington rejected Tehran’s proposal to return to the Islamabad agreement and resumed military escalation by striking rocket launchers on Larak Island. [2] Iran responded with missile attacks on US bases in Jordan, reinforcing the cycle of confrontation and signalling that the US remains more committed to coercion than diplomacy. [2] Eight years ago, Trump abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. [2] The Islamabad memorandum is Trump’s own diplomatic legacy, and if Washington is now prepared to walk away from an agreement that bears the signature of its own president, it sends a far broader message that the US is no longer merely abandoning the legacy of previous administrations. [2]

Iran's Existential War Mindset

Tehran appears determined to withstand the current economic offensive and, if necessary, escalate militarily rather than accept another temporary arrangement. [2] This assumption was reflected in recent remarks by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who declared that the US is going to collapse this regime and that it is time for allies and the rest of the world to make a decision. [2] Tehran’s strategic assessment is markedly different. [2] Based on an analysis heard from an Iranian strategist, Iran’s leadership now views the confrontation with the US as an existential war that will shape not only Iran’s future but also the regional order. [2] In this assessment, the Iran war has weakened US military readiness, depleted critical weapons stockpiles, exposed the vulnerability of the global energy system through the Strait of Hormuz, and imposed growing political costs on both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. [2] Many within Iran’s current leadership appear to have reached what Persians describe as death once, moan once, a mindset best captured by the English proverb that a man can die but once. [2] They increasingly believe it is better to resolve the fundamental confrontation with the US once and for all, rather than endure another generation of sanctions, military threats and recurring crises. [2] The new supreme leader belongs to the generation forged by the Iran-Iraq War, having served as a young soldier on the frontlines, and carries a legacy of the recent conflict in which his father, wife and son were killed in US-Israeli military operations. [2] Influential figures shaping Iran’s postwar strategy, including parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, are veteran commanders of the Iran-Iraq War. [2]

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Strategic Deadlock and Trump's Choices

The current crisis has reached what military strategists would describe as a strategic deadlock. [2] Neither Washington nor Tehran possesses a politically acceptable pathway to victory. [2] Although the US can sustain economic warfare far longer than Iran may withstand it economically, such coercion alone is unlikely to achieve Washington’s political objectives or compel Tehran’s surrender. [2] Iran retains the ability to impose disproportionate costs on regional stability through maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, regional military escalation, and disruptions to global energy markets. [2] Both sides retain the capacity to inflict pain, but neither possesses the ability to impose a durable political settlement by force. [2] Trump now faces a defining strategic choice. [2] Across his two presidencies, he has left three distinct legacies in US-Iran relations: maximum pressure, several military confrontations, and the Islamabad memorandum of understanding. [2] He cannot preserve all three. [2] If Trump wants history to remember him as the American president who achieved peace with Iran rather than prolonged conflict, he should choose his own diplomatic legacy, the Islamabad memorandum, and transform it into a comprehensive settlement capable of ending nearly five decades of hostility. [2] Such a grand bargain should concentrate initially on the Strait of Hormuz, negotiating a permanent maritime security arrangement guaranteeing freedom of navigation, and on the nuclear issue, negotiating a bilateral treaty under which Iran would permanently renounce nuclear weapons while preserving its legal rights to peaceful nuclear technology under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. [2]

What to watch next: Xi is expected to visit India and the US later this month while high-level regional diplomatic initiatives continue to seek revival of the Islamabad memorandum.