Iran Tensions Ease as Oman Pushes Joint Strait of Hormuz Mechanism After US Strike Halt

Oman and Iran have accelerated talks to reopen commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz under a joint regional mechanism following a US halt in strikes on Iran, even as Netanyahu prepares to present Trump with evidence of Iran's continued nuclear activities at Pickaxe Mountain. Iran tensions have prompted these diplomatic moves as a potential short-term fix amid a slowdown in fighting between Washington and Tehran.

Oman-Iran Talks on Strait of Hormuz

Oman and Iran have accelerated diplomatic maneuvers to reopen commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, Oman and Iran crafted the terms of an agreement which would allow ships to pass safely through the waterway. The proposal presented to Iran included a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait with voluntary fees. The negotiations were narrowly focused on shipping and not meant to put a full stop to the conflict. Mediators instead hoped that a temporary agreement on the contentious shipping issue would cool tempers and ultimately lead to more advanced talks. Iran and Oman are still far from reaching an agreement on some aspects of the situation, including whether to charge transit fees. One official familiar with the matter stated that the joint Omani-Iranian operations would be funded voluntarily by regional countries and the shipping and oil industries. Iran remains insistent on maintaining control over the strait and collecting fees in exchange for allowing safe passage. Both the US and Oman have opposed the imposition of compulsory tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. [1]

Timing After US Strike Halt

Oman sent a delegation to Tehran on Friday, the same night that US President Donald Trump ordered a halt to attacks on Iran after almost two weeks of nightly strikes on Iranian military capabilities. While the US has not been involved in the talks, Oman has kept American officials informed. Omani officials proposed establishing a collaborative effort to oversee maritime security, search-and-rescue operations, and other necessary functions in the Strait of Hormuz. [1]

Iranian Diplomatic Outreach

On Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that he had held separate phone calls with the foreign ministers of Oman and Saudi Arabia on Monday. Araghchi claimed the Saudi and Omani foreign ministers emphasized the importance of advancing diplomatic efforts to achieve stability in the region and ending instability in the Strait of Hormuz. [1]

Netanyahu's Briefing on Pickaxe Mountain

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to brief US President Donald Trump about Iran's actions in Pickaxe Mountain and the efforts by the regime to re-establish its nuclear program in the area. Netanyahu is expected to show Trump that the Iranian regime is lying about its interest in pursuing a diplomatic solution to the conflict, with the key proof being the recent movement of its nuclear infrastructure to the Pickaxe Mountain. The movements at this site were first reported by the Wall Street Journal, which said that Israel uncovered proof that Iran moved centrifuges to the mountain complex shortly after the US and the regime agreed on their Memorandum of Understanding. The complex, which the regime began secretly constructing in 2020, is located 1.5 kilometers south of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, which was struck several times during the last Iran war. [2]

Trump's Shifting Statements

Trump previously stated that Pickaxe Mountain was left untouched during the war due to insufficient proof that the regime was using it to develop its nuclear program. In a meeting last week with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, he stated that the US would be hitting the site "pretty soon." He also said that Tehran was “desperate” to hold talks, warning that it had “not seen anything yet.” Earlier, on July 13, Trump also hinted at the possibility of attacking the complex. "We're going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready," the president said during an interview on the Hugh Hewitt Show. But later on, he also claimed that the US has no intelligence indicating any activity in the complex or that the centrifuges were transported there. [2]

US Public Opinion and Netanyahu Meeting

Only one-third of Americans support the US military campaign against Iran, while a large majority say President Donald Trump has failed to clearly explain the objectives of the war, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. The online survey of 1,246 US adults, conducted from July 25 to 27, found that 69% of respondents, including four in 10 Republicans, said Trump had not clearly explained the purpose of US military involvement in Iran. The poll has a margin of error of three percentage points. Support for the war has remained below 40% since the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28. The latest findings indicate that public backing for the conflict has fallen to its lowest level since the fighting began. The figures point to growing public skepticism over the administration’s strategy as the conflict enters its fifth month. Support for the campaign remains lower than public backing for the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan during their early stages. Despite the decline in support for the war, Trump’s overall job approval rating increased slightly in the latest survey, rising to 37% from 34% in the previous month’s Reuters/Ipsos poll. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet US President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday for the first time since the start of the Iran war, over which they have publicly disagreed. Tuesday's meeting is expected to be dominated by the war, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, as Washington says it wants to give negotiations a chance. Israel has not taken part in the latest round of hostilities between the United States and Iran, which flared earlier this month after an April ceasefire collapsed. Tuesday's meeting will be the eighth between the leaders since Trump's return to office last year, as well as their first in-person talks since the war began. Netanyahu said before departing Israel on Monday that the goal is to safeguard security and expand the circle of peace. Relations between the two leaders reached a low point in April during negotiations on the ceasefire, with Trump unleashing profanity-laced tirades against his Israeli ally. Trump later described Netanyahu in an interview as a "very difficult guy". Netanyahu downplayed the exchanges as "tactical disagreements", saying they were aligned on the goals of the war. The primary aim of the visit is to dispel reports of a cooling in relations between the allies. [3][4]

What to watch next is the outcome of the Netanyahu-Trump White House meeting and whether Oman-Iran shipping talks produce a temporary agreement on voluntary fees despite ongoing disagreements over control of the Strait of Hormuz.