Hurricane Tracker Updates Show Very Strong El Niño Forecast to Last Into 2027
Hurricane tracker updates highlight how the World Meteorological Organization has issued a forecast for a very strong El Niño event that is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. The event will peak towards the end of 2026 and persist with high likelihood through February 2027 while separate U.S. National Weather Service alerts report active severe thunderstorms producing large hail and damaging winds in Minnesota and Pennsylvania plus ongoing flash flooding in New York.
WMO El Niño Forecast
The World Meteorological Organization reports that El Niño is intensifying into a very strong event with Niño 3.4 index values reaching 2.2 °C to 2.6 °C above average in recent weeks and subsurface ocean temperatures exceeding normal by more than 8 °C in places. [3] Global producing centers give nearly 100% likelihood that the El Niño will continue through February 2027, the first time a WMO update has been so unequivocal due to strong model agreement. [3] The Niño 3.4 index averaged 1.5 °C above normal between May and July and 2 °C in July. [3] Weekly values rose further between late July and mid-August. [3] Warming below the surface is even more pronounced in some areas. [3]
Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for Otter Tail County, Minnesota, with ping-pong ball size hail and 60 mph winds moving east at 25 mph from near Urbank. [2] A separate Severe Thunderstorm Warning covers Clearwater County, Minnesota, with identical hail and wind hazards moving east at 30 mph from near Oklee, affecting multiple towns including Fosston and Bagley. [4] Radar indicated the hazards in both counties. [2] [4] People and animals outdoors will be injured with hail damage expected to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles along with wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. [2] [4] Locations impacted in the second warning include Fosston, Bagley, McIntosh, Clearbrook, Erskine, Oklee, and Gonvick. [4]
Flash Flooding in Erie, New York
A Flash Flood Warning remains active for Erie, New York, after 2 to 3.5 inches of rain fell. [1] Law enforcement reports some roadways still flooded even though the heavy rain has ended. [1] Flooding impacts will continue for a while longer with no additional rainfall expected. [1] The hazard involves flash flooding caused by thunderstorms according to law enforcement reports. [1] Impacts include flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. [1]
What to watch next
The event has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world with disruption from droughts and floods already visible in some regions. [3]
