Experts See Losses on All Sides Months After US Israel Iran War Claims of Victory
Months after the US, Israel and Iran each claimed victory in their direct conflict, experts assess that all sides suffered strategic, political and economic setbacks with global ripple effects, while Sudan's civil war intensifies around the strategic city of el-Obeid and Ukraine's President Zelensky declares the decisive battle has moved to the skies.
Differing Victory Claims After US-Israel-Iran Conflict
The USA, Israel and Iran each claimed to have achieved their main goals in the conflict. [1] US President Donald Trump stated two weeks after the fighting began that “We have won.” [1] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the outcome as a “historic victory.” [1] Iranian leaders portrayed the ceasefire announced in early April as a success against two militarily superior states. [1] Experts, however, present a more contradictory picture, identifying losses on all sides, including for economies and consumers worldwide. [1]
US Strategic Shortfalls and Strained Alliances
The United States failed to meet its original objectives of full Iranian capitulation, protection of the Iranian population from regime crackdowns on protests, a stronger nuclear agreement than the 2015 deal, or removal of Iranian regional influence. [1] Expert Dana Stroul of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote that “All these goals remained unfulfilled.” [1] The conflict instead exposed a lack of trust between the United States and its Arab partners. [1] Gulf states now seek clearer security guarantees from Washington yet “lose faith that Washington is determined to ensure their security,” according to Stroul. [1] The war also strained the long-standing US-Israel partnership, with Americans across the political spectrum viewing the joint offensive as “extremely selfish and completely useless for them,” wrote Jon B. Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. [1] Trump faced notable disagreements with Netanyahu, who was at times portrayed as a warmonger. [1]
Iran's Leadership Claims Success Amid Domestic Hardship
Iranian authorities described the early-April ceasefire as a victory and later called the mid-June framework agreement a “great victory for the people in Iran.” [1] The regime survived despite the deaths of numerous senior political and military figures and the destruction of military and industrial facilities. [1] No regime change occurred. [1] Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an air strike on the first day of the war, a power vacuum triggered internal disputes over the future of the Islamic Republic. [1] Hardline conservatives reject negotiations with the United States, while moderate-conservative President Masoud Pezeshkian defends them. [1] Iranian civilians emerged as major losers, facing rising prices and a lack of future prospects after the air strikes ended. [1] Many doubt that promised sanctions relief will reach ordinary people. [1] In January, large crowds protested the authoritarian government and economic crisis, but the demonstrations were violently suppressed. [1]
Israel's Assertions and Expert Critiques
Netanyahu claimed a “historic victory over Iran” and asserted that “We have destroyed the Iranian nuclear program.” [1] He stated that two existential threats—an atomic-weapon destruction and 20,000 ballistic missiles—had been eliminated. [1] Assessments of the lasting damage to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs differ among the International Atomic Energy Agency, intelligence services and analysts. [1] Netanyahu told Israel’s Channel 14 that he had saved the country from annihilation because Iran already possessed a nuclear bomb. [1] The unclassified annual US intelligence report, however, found no indication of a political decision to build an atomic bomb. [1] Israeli Iran expert Danny Citrinowicz wrote on X that “A large number of operations, precision strikes and tactical successes does not automatically lead to lasting strategic advantages.” [1] The Iranian regime was not overthrown, Israel’s diplomatic and strategic position deteriorated, and the military operation should be judged a strategic failure rather than a success. [1]
Economic Toll on Gulf States and Exclusion From Talks
Gulf states, which sought to avoid the war, suffered thousands of Iranian attacks that damaged their reputation as safe havens for investment, trade and tourism in cities such as Dubai, Riyadh and Doha, even though most projectiles were intercepted. [1] Economic losses proved immense because the countries have been unable to export oil and natural gas to world markets for months due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. [1] Logistics and air-traffic sectors also recorded massive losses. [1] Attempts to rely on US weapons systems and troop presence for security failed, as the United States and Israel began the war while apparently accepting that Gulf countries could become targets. [1] Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait now view large US military bases in their territories more as liabilities. [1] The Gulf states avoided open participation in the war yet were excluded from postwar security negotiations, with the exception of mediator Qatar. [1]
Sudan and Ukraine Conflicts Escalate in New Phases
More than 11,000 people, including over 5,500 children, fled escalating fighting around Sudan’s strategic city of el-Obeid in the past two weeks, according to Save the Children. [3] The United Nations warns that up to 500,000 civilians could be at risk if violence intensifies. [3] El-Obeid, capital of North Kordofan state, lies at the intersection of roads linking central Sudan with Darfur and southern states, making it a key commercial and logistical hub. [3] The city remains under Sudanese Armed Forces control and is viewed as strategically vital by both the SAF and the Rapid Support Forces. [3] Fighting has intensified across Kordofan, with drone strikes increasingly targeting military positions as well as civilian infrastructure such as fuel depots, electricity networks and water facilities. [3] The origins of Sudan’s civil war remain disputed: the SAF and its Islamist allies blame the RSF for starting the conflict on 15 April 2023, while the RSF and civilian democratic groups point to Islamist elements within the army. [2] Analysts describe the war as the result of an existential power struggle between two generals whose earlier alliances ultimately collapsed. [2]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that after halting Russia on land and at sea, the decisive phase of the war has moved to the skies. [4] He told the Financial Times that Ukraine is already competitive in the air domain through long-range drones, yet air defense remains its principal weakness. [4] Zelensky said US President Donald Trump told him in a telephone call that Ukraine “is doing very well” with its long-range drone campaign. [4] Trump later told reporters that the United States is “getting much closer than people realize” to ending the war and that both Putin and Zelensky want it to conclude. [4] Ukraine’s air-defense systems, including US-made Patriots and French-made SAMP/T, are too few to intercept all incoming ballistic missiles, as demonstrated when none of 29 ballistic missiles were intercepted during a recent large-scale Russian attack. [4]
What to watch next
Attention will focus on whether fighting around el-Obeid develops into a sustained ground offensive or whether diplomatic efforts reduce hostilities and improve humanitarian access. [3] In Ukraine, the outcome will hinge on whether partners supply additional air-defense systems or help Kyiv produce its own antiballistic defenses, while both sides continue long-range drone strikes. [4]
