El Niño Has 70% Chance of Becoming Strongest on Record, NOAA Says

Extreme weather conditions including flooding in the US, critical fire weather in Oregon, record potential El Niño, Swiss heatwave alliance launch, and intensifying French drought highlight ongoing global severe weather impacts in 2026.

Current US Flood and Fire Weather Alerts

Minor flooding is occurring and forecast on the La Moine River at Colmar in Illinois, affecting Hancock and McDonough Counties until this evening with impacts on Lambert Road and Lamar Road. [1] The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois, where the La Moine River at Colmar is the focus. [1] At 20.0 feet, water affects the lowest portions of Lambert Road and affects Lamar Road approximately 100 feet north of the intersection with County Road 26. [1] Additional details from the alert note conditions observed at 7:45 AM CDT Tuesday. [1]

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 10 PM PDT for breezy westerly winds and low relative humidity creating critical fire weather in the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon and related fire weather zones. [2] A weather system will bring breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps Tuesday afternoon and evening. [2] Coupled with low relative humidity, this will lead to critical fire weather conditions, especially across the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon. [2] The affected area includes Fire Weather Zones 691 Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon, 701 Eastern Columbia River Gorge of Oregon and 703 Warm Springs Reservation. [2] Timing runs from noon today to 10 PM PDT. [2]

These alerts represent immediate severe weather examples tied to current conditions across separate US regions. The flood warning specifies minor flooding impacts that persist until this evening in the named Illinois counties. [1] The fire weather warning separately emphasizes the combination of breezy winds and low humidity as the driver for critical conditions in the Oregon zones. [2]

El Niño Forecast to Potentially Set Record

US NOAA reports a 70% chance that the current El Niño could become the strongest on record, surpassing the 1982-83 Super El Niño. [3] The assessment indicates a 70% chance that the climate pattern will surpass the 1982-83 Super El Niño. [3] This outlook from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration frames the current event against historical benchmarks. [3]

The 70% probability underscores the potential for this El Niño to exceed prior peaks in strength. [3] Such an outcome would place the ongoing pattern above the benchmark set by the 1982-83 event. [3] The report directly links the statistical chance to the possibility of record status. [3]

Alliance activists demand greater heatwave protection measures in Switzerland. — Source: swissinfo

Swiss Alliance Demands Heatwave Protections

Over 70 Swiss organizations have formed the ‘No 50°C summers!’ alliance calling for greater heatwave protection, phase-out of fossil fuels, and measures to protect vulnerable people, buildings, farmers, and reduce emissions amid 2026 drought and extreme temperatures. [4] Around 70 Swiss civil society organisations working in the climate, health, environmental and agricultural sectors have launched the ‘No 50°C summers!’ alliance. [4] The organisations are warning that the drought and extreme temperatures of 2026 point to a new climatic reality that could worsen further, according to a joint press release issued on Tuesday. [4] This summer’s drought and high temperatures are just the beginning of a new and worrying reality, the organisers argue. [4]

The alliance calls for more effective protection of vulnerable people, the systematic inclusion of green spaces in towns and settlements, and the refurbishment of buildings – particularly schools and public facilities – to make them more heat-resistant. [4] It also calls for binding measures to protect health in the workplace and support for farmers affected by drought and crop losses. [4] On the climate front, the alliance is calling for an immediate phase-out of fossil fuels and a drastic reduction in emissions across all sectors. [4] Switzerland is failing to meet the climate targets it has already set itself and continues to maintain structures that exacerbate the climate crisis, according to the alliance view. [4] Those responsible for greenhouse gas emissions should also contribute towards covering the costs of climate damage. [4]

The alliance brings together parties such as the Social Democrats and the Greens, the UNIA trade union and the environmental organisation WWF Switzerland. [4] It intends to step up pressure on the government and parliament through two demonstrations, one planned for September 19 in French-speaking Switzerland and another for September 25 in German-speaking Switzerland. [4]

France Faces Prolonged Drought Conditions

France is experiencing an intensifying drought with some areas seeing 47 days without rain, leading to severe water restrictions even in northern towns like Dunkirk. [5] France's drought is intensifying with severe water restrictions and even northern towns like Dunkirk recording weeks without a single drop of rain. [5] The 47 days without rain figure marks the depth of the current dry spell in affected areas. [5] Water restrictions have been applied across multiple regions as a direct response. [5]

The drought conditions extend to northern locations, where Dunkirk has recorded extended periods without precipitation. [5] This intensification has prompted authorities to enforce limits on water use in response to the prolonged lack of rain. [5]

Broader Climate Context in 2026

The 70% chance of a record El Niño connects to wider patterns of extreme heat and drought described in related reports. [3] The Swiss alliance explicitly ties the 2026 drought and extreme temperatures to a new climatic reality that could worsen further. [4] These events illustrate the ongoing global severe weather impacts noted across multiple regions in 2026. [3] [4]

What to watch next: Further demonstrations by the Swiss alliance on September 19 and September 25, alongside continued monitoring of the El Niño probability and active US flood and fire warnings.