Doomsday Clock Looms as US Envoys Hold Ukraine Peace Talks in Moscow
The Doomsday Clock remains a symbol of global risk as US envoys pursue peace talks to end the war in Ukraine while the Trump administration escalates military and economic pressure on Iran, including threats to bomb Pickaxe Mountain and polygraph tests over related leaks. US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow on Saturday for talks on ending the Ukraine war and are expected to travel to Ukraine on Sunday with a fresh proposal from President Trump. [1][4] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine will guarantee safe Russian airspace during the envoys' stay and reported Russian strikes on two Ukrainian airports ahead of the visit. [1][4] The Trump administration subjected around 50 senior US military officers and civilian employees on the Joint Staff to polygraph tests to identify leaks about the US-Israeli war on Iran, including information on depleted munitions stocks. [2] Trump has repeatedly stated that the US may soon strike Pickaxe Mountain, the last significant untouched underground nuclear site near Natanz in Iran. [3] The US-Iran conflict has entered a phase of mutual airstrikes and comprehensive economic blockade, with experts predicting a continued stalemate as both sides await concessions. [5]
US Envoys Begin Ukraine Peace Mission
US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner landed in Moscow on Saturday for talks on the war in Ukraine. [4] They were met by Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and a motorcade carrying the three left Moscow’s governmental airport and headed toward the city. [4] US President Donald Trump suggested on Friday that the US had a fresh concrete proposal aimed at ending the war, which is now in its fifth year. [4] The two envoys are expected to fly to Ukraine on Sunday after visiting Moscow to present the plan. [1][4] Dmitriev has remained in contact with the US negotiators during a pause in their visits to Russia and took part in all their previous meetings with President Vladimir Putin. [4]
Russian Strikes Precede Kyiv Visit
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday that the two men would fly to Ukraine on Sunday after visiting Moscow. [4] In an X post on Saturday, Zelenskyy said Russia hit two Ukrainian airports ahead of US envoys’ visit to Kyiv. [4] Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine will guarantee safe Russian airspace during their stay. [1] A vast gulf remains between Russia and Ukraine on how to end the 4-1/2-year-old war. [4] The Kremlin said on Friday the position that Putin set out in a speech two years ago—that Ukraine should cede the entire territory of four regions claimed by Russia and abandon its plan to join NATO—was “unshakeable.” [4] Since the last peace talks in February, each side has intensified long-range air attacks deep inside the other’s territory. [4]
Polygraphs Target Iran War Leaks
The Trump administration has subjected around 50 military officers and civilian employees serving on the US Joint Staff to polygraph tests as part of an extraordinary effort to identify leaks to the press about the US-Israeli war on Iran. [2] Investigators questioned personnel in August over whether they had disclosed classified information to journalists, including information on dwindling US stocks of key munitions. [2] The Joint Staff is a Pentagon body of roughly 1,500 to 2,000 civilian and military personnel that supports the Joint Chiefs of Staff. [2] The inquiry followed a succession of media reports warning that the months-long war has depleted US supplies of sophisticated weapons, including long-range missiles and Patriot air-defence interceptors used to counter Iranian ballistic-missile attacks. [2] People familiar with the investigation told the NYT that the polygraph sweep appeared intended not only to identify officials who may have provided information to reporters, but also to deter other military personnel from speaking to the media. [2] CBS News reported that no one failed the questions specifically intended to establish whether they had leaked to journalists. [2]
Trump Threatens Strike on Pickaxe Mountain
Donald Trump said again on Friday that the United States may soon strike Pickaxe Mountain, the underground complex near Natanz that is the last significant site linked to Iran's nuclear program still untouched after two wars. [3] The site remains the final major untouched element of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure following earlier strikes. [3]
Stalemate Persists in US-Iran Conflict
Early this week, the US and Iran resumed mutual airstrikes. [5] The attacks occurred only days after the US declared a shift to a new phase of comprehensive economic blockade against Iran and countries with trade ties to it. [5] The goal is to force Iran to the negotiating table and stop attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. [5] The memorandum of understanding signed in June aimed at a permanent ceasefire and peace agreement within 60 days has now expired. [5] As the conflict enters its seventh month, experts assess that the US hopes military and economic pressure will weaken Iran’s negotiating position. [5] Iran is preparing for tighter economic sanctions and a prolonged tit-for-tat exchange of strikes while seeking to respond proportionally to avoid escalation into a larger war. [5] Iran appears ready to wait for US concessions or a return to the MOU framework rather than yield under pressure. [5]
Global Risk Context
The parallel developments in Ukraine and Iran underscore the broader geopolitical tensions reflected by the Doomsday Clock. [2][3][4][5] Mass lie-detector testing at senior levels of the US military remains highly unusual in the modern era. [2] Trump has branded media accounts of depleted US munitions supplies “treasonous.” [2] The conflict has exposed the vulnerability of US troops, bases and allied infrastructure across the region to Iranian missile fire. [2] On the ground in Ukraine, front lines have remained largely static, with Russia making only gradual gains in its attempt to take the whole of Ukraine’s Donbas region. [4] Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have led to a summer of fuel shortages and rising prices for Russian motorists. [4] A Russian drone attack hit the headquarters of Ukraine’s SBU security service in Kyiv on Friday—the 10th consecutive day of heavy attacks on the capital. [4]
What to watch next: Experts note that if the Trump administration focuses efforts on reviving the MOU framework, that path could provide an exit from the current stalemate while addressing concerns over Iran’s nuclear program. [5]
