Doomsday Clock for Netanyahu Ticks Closer to Midnight as October 7 Warnings Surface Before Israeli Election

Israel is marking three years since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks that killed 1,205 people and took 251 hostages, as the country prepares for parliamentary elections on October 27 amid ongoing political fallout for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over warnings he allegedly received beforehand and the doomsday clock that now hangs over his leadership.

Three Years After the October 7 Attacks

Three years ago, thousands of Hamas-led militants breached the border between Gaza and Israel in a surprise attack, killing 1,205 people and taking 251 as hostages back to the Gaza Strip. [1] Israelis will on Wednesday mark three years since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, triggering a military assault that destroyed much of Gaza. [2] Israel responded with a heavy hand and launched a military campaign in Gaza during which at least 74,347 people have been killed, according to the enclave’s Hamas-run health ministry. [1] The attacks, during which militants killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages to Gaza, marked the deadliest day in Israel’s history. [2] On Wednesday, Israelis will hold a vigil at the site of the Nova music festival near the Gaza border, where 348 young people were killed by militants during the attack. [2] They will also hold an event commemorating the anniversary at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv. [2] Israel’s subsequent bombardment and ground operations have killed more than 74,000 people in Gaza, health authorities there say. [2]

UAE Warning to Netanyahu

Israeli journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval revealed that President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had warned Netanyahu by phone about 10 days before the October 7 attacks in 2023 that a major confrontation with Hamas was coming. [1] During their 45-minute conversation, bin Zayed allegedly told Netanyahu that a former Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, was planning a major operation that could lead to “bloodshed” and even “destabilise the region”. [1] To bin Zayed’s surprise, the journalists reported, “Netanyahu reacted calmly” and said “Israel was prepared for any scenario”. [1] The report went on to say that bin Zayed told former CIA director William J. Burns about the conversation. [1] The prime minister’s office denied the accusations, saying no warning was given and that the report was a “wicked fabrication with clear political timing” by left-wing Israeli officials. [1] Netanyahu has since sued Haaretz for defamation. [1] But the newspaper is standing its ground and has been backed by The New York Times, which confirmed and added details to the report. [1] The UAE has not directly addressed the reports but has acknowledged that “when necessary, all relevant intelligence has been and continues to be communicated” since Abu Dhabi reestablished relations with Israel in 2020. [1] Netanyahu made a secret trip to Abu Dhabi on September 27 and met with bin Zayed for about an hour. [1] One source said the discussion centred on the Haaretz report and that Netanyahu asked the Emirati leader to deny that he had warned the Israeli leader of a looming attack. [1] Netanyahu’s office rejected the claim, dismissing it as “fake news”, while the official Emirates News Agency said the two sides met to discuss “bilateral relations”. [1]

Additional Warnings and Intelligence Failures

But for his part, Netanyahu did not brief state security agency Shin Bet, the Mossad intelligence agency or his army chief of staff about the call. [1] Reports of Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel also warning Netanyahu days before Hamas breached the border, published by The Atlantic and the Wall Street Journal, have also flooded the scene. [1] Netanyahu did not brief Shin Bet, Mossad or the army chief of staff about the warning, and his office has denied the reports as a politically timed fabrication. [1]

Accountability and Resignations

Former military chief of staff Herzi Halevi took responsibility for letting the October 7 attacks happen and stepped down in January 2025. [1] Following his resignation, an internal investigation carried out by the Israeli Defence Forces acknowledged the attacks as one of its “greatest failures”. [1] A few months later, the Israeli government sacked the head of its Shin Bet intelligence agency, Ronen Bar. [1] The decision was in part fallout from an internal report on the October 7 attack, but Netanyahu also cited an ongoing “lack of trust” as a reason to dismiss Bar. [1] Bar responded with a letter saying the Israeli prime minister’s arguments were “unsubstantiated accusations” and that his real motive was to “prevent investigations into the events leading up to October 7”. [1] Just hours after Netanyahu renewed his accusations against Bar, on September 28 the former intelligence chief threatened to sue for defamation. [1] He said the Israeli leader was “attempting to deflect blame away from himself by levelling accusations at those who warned him in real time,” according to an article published by The Times of Israel. [1] Netanyahu has counter-attacked by pointing his finger to a “deep state” composed of security services and left-wing bureaucratic elites. [1] The Israeli leader has even claimed his security chiefs intentionally let him sleep for hours after Hamas launched its assault on October 7 for fear he would trigger an aggressive response and immediately put the entire military on alert. [1] “If they would have woken me up, everything would have looked different,” he said in a campaign video posted on X in August. [1] A schedule published by Netanyahu's office contradicts the claim, however, saying he was informed at 6:29am of an attack from the Gaza Strip. [1]

Ceasefire Status and Continued Violence

The anniversary is the first since an October 10, 2025, US-brokered ceasefire deal that halted major fighting but has failed to stop Israeli attacks in Gaza or secure the disarmament of Hamas and other militant groups. [2] The deal left Israel in control of some 53% of Gaza, since expanded by Israeli forces to nearly two-thirds. [2] Hamas controls the remaining third, where the 2 million population mostly live in makeshift tents and bombed out buildings. [2] The anniversary is also the first for Israelis without any hostages still held in Gaza, with those dead and alive exchanged in swaps with Hamas for Palestinians held in Israeli jails. [2] The remains of the last Israeli hostage were recovered in January. [2] US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Board of Peace” has proposed several plans that would see Gaza rebuilt. [2] But those plans, which fail to account for the property rights of Palestinians whose homes were destroyed, have failed to gain the buy-in of Israel or Hamas, which are still deadlocked in ceasefire talks. [2] The two have yet to agree on the terms of a deal that would see Hamas lay down its weapons in exchange for Israeli troop withdrawals. [2] Israel says it will not pull back until Hamas fully disarms; Hamas says it has agreed to a phased process but will not disarm so long as Israeli attacks continue. [2] Israel has kept up a bombing campaign in Gaza that has killed a number of Hamas militants in recent months but has also killed many civilians, say Gaza health authorities, whose death figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants. [2] More than 1,400 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed since the October 2025 ceasefire, the health authorities say. [2] During the same time, five Israeli soldiers have been killed by militants or in combat, the military says. [2]

Elections Looming as Referendum on Netanyahu

The anniversary is the first for Israelis without any hostages still held in Gaza, with those dead and alive exchanged in swaps with Hamas for Palestinians held in Israeli jails, as the doomsday clock continues to tick for Netanyahu ahead of the vote. [2] The events have left deep scars in Israel, where voters will elect a new parliament on October 27, and have become a central issue in the campaign. [1] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is running for another term, but the question of what he knew before the deadly attacks three years ago is hanging over Israel’s longest-serving leader. [1] A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute showed that 68% of Jewish Israelis said that the events of October 7 were a very central or fairly central element in their decision of which party to vote for. [2] Election polls show neither Netanyahu nor his main competitors would muster enough seats in parliament to form a coalition if a vote were held today. [2] Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who has become Netanyahu's main challenger ahead of the October 27 elections, accused the veteran prime minister of dodging accountability for security failures. [1] He dismissed Netanyahu's explanations, including the claim that he wasn't woken early enough on the morning of the attack, as feeble excuses. [1] In a post on X, Eisenkot said Netanyahu had “ignored” dozens of warnings before October 7 and declared him “unfit” to lead. [1] Netanyahu’s rivals, including Eisenkot, have promised to establish an independent commission of inquiry if elected. [1] Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected calls to set up a state inquiry into the October 7 attacks – even as the army and intelligence services have investigated their own conduct – saying an investigation can only be launched once the war is over. [1]

What to watch next: The October 27 parliamentary elections will test whether voters treat October 7 accountability as decisive, with polls showing neither side currently positioned to form a coalition and rivals pledging an independent inquiry that Netanyahu has resisted.