Ukraine Strikes 19 Russian Tankers and Siberia's Largest Refinery as Fuel Shortages Hit Crimea and Russian Consumers
Ukraine Intensifies Strikes on Russian Energy and Crimea Supply Lines
Ukraine appeared to have begun large-scale strikes against Russian shadow tankers attempting to supply occupied Crimea with fuel, as an energy crisis on the peninsula worsens. [3] Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert Brovdi said his forces had struck 19 Russian tankers, a cargo ship and a ferry between July 6 and 8, including nine tankers on the night of July 7. [3] Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk told newspaper Suspilne that Russia had rerouted fuel supplies to Crimea after Ukraine deprived it of overland routes. [3] Ukraine pivoted to attacking Crimea in the past few weeks after disabling the oil offloading terminal at Novorossiysk, on the opposite Russian coast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Financial Times. [3] The Ukrainian Presidential Office in Crimea said these strikes had caused “a management crisis on the peninsula”. [3] In Sevastopol, fuel has stopped being sold to civilians, and more than a dozen Crimean regions are suffering from electricity blackouts. [3] Ukraine continued strikes on the peninsula in the past week, destroying seven Sukhoi aircraft and two sheds containing Shahed aerial drones at the Saky airfield on July 3, the Kerch oil transhipment terminal on July 6 and three hangars at the Guardsman airfield on the same day. [3] Ukraine also kept up pressure on Russia, launching what mayor Sergei Sobyanin said was its largest strike on Moscow in two years. [3] More than 400 Ukrainian drones were downed while heading for the city on July 7, which was the first day of a NATO summit in Ankara. [3] Ukraine struck several energy targets during the week, furthering its twin goals of starving Russia of petrol and export revenue from oil. [3] The SBU said it struck and set alight the St Petersburg oil terminal on July 4, which it described as “one of the largest oil product transshipment terminals in the Baltic region”. [3] On Sunday, Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces had struck the Slavneft Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl, 700km (430 miles) from Ukraine, the Ust-Luga refinery on the Baltic Sea, and the Omsk Refinery. [3] Russia’s defence ministry said it had shot down 613 of 625 Ukrainian drones detected in the airspace overnight. [3] Ukraine’s Air Force said that Russia had lost 42.7 percent of its refining capacity over the past year, and suffered $13.5bn of damage to oil infrastructure. [3] These strikes have cumulatively caused petrol and diesel shortages in the Russian market, with consumers in urban hubs lining up to fill their cars. [3] During the week, Ukraine also struck the Kremny EL Group in Bryansk, which it said manufactured microchips, semiconductors and other electronics for the armed forces. [3]
Pakistan's Military Response to Balochistan Attacks
Pakistan has claimed that its security forces killed 75 militants during days-long operations launched after a series of deadly attacks on police, security personnel and civilians in the restive province of Balochistan. [1] The operations targeted the banned Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which Islamabad has blamed for the attacks. [1] According to the Balochistan government, the operations involving the Pakistan Army, the Frontier Corps and police began late on Monday after dozens of alleged BLA fighters attacked a police post near Mangi Dam, a key reservoir that supplies water to millions of people in Quetta and surrounding areas. [1] Pakistani authorities claimed that nine police personnel and 15 attackers were killed in the initial assault. [1] They also alleged that the attackers abducted 18 police officers, who were later found blindfolded and shot dead after fleeing into nearby mountains. [1] The claim came a day after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Quetta, where he met the families of 42 people killed in the attacks. [1] According to the Pakistan PM's office, Sharif told the bereaved families that their sacrifices “were not in vain” and assured them that those responsible would be brought to justice. [1] The Balochistan government also announced compensation of 11.1 million Pakistani rupees (around USD 39,000) for the family of each police officer killed in the attacks. [1] Balochistan, Pakistan's largest but least populous province, has witnessed a long-running separatist insurgency led by ethnic Baloch groups seeking greater autonomy or independence. [1] The province has also faced attacks by the TTP, a militant group distinct from but allied with the Afghan Taliban. [1] Pakistan says security operations are continuing in Balochistan, while independent verification of its claims regarding the number of militants killed and other operational details was not immediately available. [1]
Ukrainian strikes target Russian tankers supplying fuel to occupied Crimea amid energy shortages. — Source: gdelt
US-Iran Clashes in the Strait of Hormuz and Market Reactions
Mỹ tấn công gần 170 mục tiêu quân sự của Iran trong 2 ngày 7 và 8/7. [2] Sáng 8/7/2026, quân đội Mỹ đã phát động các đợt không kích mới nhằm vào Iran, chỉ vài giờ sau khi ba tàu thương mại bị tấn công tại eo biển Hormuz. [2] Trong khoảng 48 giờ từ ngày 7 đến 8/7, quân đội Mỹ tiến hành hai đợt không kích liên tiếp nhằm vào Iran. [2] Theo các thông báo của Bộ Chỉ huy Trung tâm Mỹ (CENTCOM), tổng cộng gần 170 mục tiêu quân sự đã bị tấn công. [2] Đáp lại, Iran phóng tên lửa, UAV tấn công các căn cứ Mỹ tại Bahrain, Qatar và Kuwait. [2] Iran also retaliated against US bases in Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait but both sides appeared to limit escalation to maintain negotiating leverage. [2] Sau những biến động ban đầu, chứng khoán Mỹ đã tăng mạnh. [2] Kết thúc phiên giao dịch ngày 9/7, chỉ số Nasdaq Composite tăng 1,3% lên 26.206,89 điểm. [2] Chỉ số S&P 500 tăng 0,8% lên 7.543,66 điểm, trong khi chỉ số công nghiệp Dow Jones tăng 0,27% lên 52.487,41 điểm. [2] Giá dầu Brent chốt phiên 9/7 là giảm 2,2%, về 76,30 USD/thùng; WTI giảm 2%, xuống còn 72,08 USD/thùng. [2] Từ góc độ quân sự, chiến dịch của Mỹ có quy mô đủ lớn để chứng minh quyết tâm. [2] Việc đánh trúng gần 170 mục tiêu cho thấy Washington có thể đang tìm cách làm suy giảm năng lực chống tiếp cận/chống xâm nhập (A2/AD) của Iran quanh eo biển Hormuz. [2] Trong hai đợt không kích nêu trên, danh sách mục tiêu được công bố không bao gồm các cơ sở hạt nhân quy mô lớn, hạ tầng dầu khí trọng yếu hay các trung tâm dân cư đông đúc. [2] Phía Iran cũng phản ứng theo cách tương tự. [2] Tehran tuyên bố tiến hành các cuộc tấn công nhằm vào căn cứ Mỹ tại khu vực Vùng Vịnh, đồng thời tiếp tục đe dọa các tuyến vận tải qua Hormuz. [2] Ngày 8/7/2026, Tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump tuyên bố thỏa thuận ngừng bắn với Iran đã kết thúc, trong bối cảnh xung đột giữa hai nước bùng phát trở lại. [2] Theo Tổng thống Trump, mặc dù thỏa thuận ngừng bắn không còn hiệu lực, tiến trình đàm phán giữa hai bên vẫn có thể tiếp tục. [2] Lực lượng Vệ binh Cách mạng Hồi giáo Iran (IRGC) tuyên bố đã tiến hành các cuộc tấn công bằng tên lửa và thiết bị bay không người lái nhằm vào 85 cơ sở quân sự trọng yếu của Mỹ tại Bahrain và Kuwait. [2]
Israel Suspends Hebron Accords and Expands Settlement Activity
The move has been accelerated by some of Benjamin Netanyahu’s most hard-line ministers, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. [5] On June 16, Smotrich wrote on X: “I cancelled the Hebron agreement.” [5] The importance of this decision, he said, lies in that many authorities in Hebron and the holy sites, including the Tomb of the Patriarchs, “are no longer in the hands of the terrorist municipality of Hebron, but again become the exclusive responsibility of the State of Israel.” [5] The latest step comes as the legislative term nears its end: the suspension of the 1997 Hebron Accords. [5] Signed by Netanyahu himself and by the then-Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat as part of the Oslo Accords, the agreement stipulated that Israel should withdraw its troops from 80% of Hebron so that the Palestinian Authority police could assume control. [5] That area became known as H1, where about 210,000 Palestinians live, according to the Palestinian Authority’s Statistics Office. [5] The remaining 20% of the territory, home to roughly 50,000 Palestinians and including the Ibrahami Mosque, remained under Israeli army control, although certain powers (such as urban planning) were in Palestinian hands. [5] For Palestinian activist Issa Amro, 48, who has spent his life fighting and documenting the occupation of his hometown, the most worrying aspect of breaking the 1997 accords is that Hebron’s municipal government, now run by the Palestinian Authority, will no longer have jurisdiction over construction and urban planning in H2. [5] Amro warns that the consequences of Smotrich’s move—which Netanyahu’s Cabinet approved months ago and announced officially a few weeks ago—are already being felt. [5] Last week he already announced the creation of a new settlement in the Old City. [5] He became an activist when Israel closed Hebron University, where he had studied as a young man, and he acknowledges that after Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attacks—which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 people in Israeli territory—assaults by settlers and soldiers have skyrocketed. [5] “There are more armed settlers and more attacks. Since 2023 I have put up more bars and walls at my house. I watch constantly out the window because settlers live just a few meters from me. Somehow we have internalized that they can kill us at any moment with total impunity,” he adds. [5] Constant raids by the Israeli army enter, break into homes and arrest Palestinians. [5] Mohamed survives on a salary of 1,400 shekels (€400) from his job in a bar. [5] “I worked for many years in a bar in Tel Aviv, but since October 2023 Israel has revoked work permits for West Bank Palestinians. I can’t go there anymore unless I risk illegally crossing the wall. And I don’t want to be killed or enter illegally,” he says. [5]
Broader Context and Risks Across Conflict Zones
The latest violence has raised concerns over the growing reach of separatist groups operating in Balochistan, where security forces have battled a decades-long insurgency. [1] Diễn biến nêu trên phản ánh sự thay đổi căn bản trong cách thị trường đánh giá các cuộc xung đột địa chính trị. [2] Nhà đầu tư hiện không còn phản ứng theo số lượng tên lửa hay mục tiêu bị tấn công, mà đánh giá xác suất xảy ra chiến tranh toàn diện và tác động thực tế đối với chuỗi cung ứng năng lượng toàn cầu. [2] Khi xác suất đó vẫn được xem là thấp, dòng tiền tiếp tục ưu tiên các câu chuyện tăng trưởng như trí tuệ nhân tạo (AI), bán dẫn và lợi nhuận doanh nghiệp hơn là nỗi lo địa chính trị. [2] Leo thang dù có kiểm soát vẫn luôn tiềm ẩn nguy cơ mất kiểm soát. [2] Một sai sót trong tính toán, một cuộc tấn công gây thương vong lớn hoặc một sự cố tại eo biển Hormuz đều có thể khiến chu kỳ mặc cả nhanh chóng chuyển thành đối đầu trực tiếp. [2] Zelenskyy said the air war would prove “decisive”, because in 2026 Ukraine’s ground troops had effectively stopped Russia’s slow advance of the last two years. [3] Independent assessments have suggested that Russia gained a total of 97 square kilometres (37 square miles) in the first six months of the year. [3] “The war is ongoing, but the front line is no longer moving. When the front line is almost not moving, and the enemy cannot invade by sea, the sky remains,” Zelenskyy said. [3] What is happening in Hebron reflects the colonial plans the Israeli government has for the rest of the West Bank, territory from which it has been steadily seizing land. [5] “This is not about one particular government, it’s about the Israeli system. No one has peace with Palestine on their political agenda.” [5]
What to watch next: Pakistan says security operations are continuing in Balochistan while independent verification of its claims was not immediately available. [1] Both Washington and Tehran continue to keep open the possibility of returning to negotiations after the controlled escalation. [2] Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia had lost 42.7 percent of its refining capacity over the past year. [3] Israel’s foreign minister Gideon Saar stated that all Israeli governments have defended the fundamental right to live in Judea and Samaria. [5]
