Ukraine Destroys Four Russian Su-34 Aircraft at Borisoglebsk Airfield in Current Wars in the World
Ukraine destroyed four Su-34M strike aircraft and damaged two more on the ground at Russia's Borisoglebsk airfield using a Neptune missile in current wars in the world, marking the Russian air force's worst day since Operation Spiderweb. [1] The strike occurred at an airfield 340 km from the front line. [1]
Major Ukrainian Strike on Russian Airfield
The strike on the airfield used an upgraded Neptune missile originally designed for ships but now capable of hitting ground targets. [1] The airfield lies around 340 km from the front line and was built to accommodate even the largest aircraft types in the Russian air force’s inventory: the Tu-160 and An-124. [1] In this war, however, it serves as a base from which smaller Su-34s take off for glide-bomb attacks. [1] Ukraine does not yet have fighter jets capable of shooting down enemy aircraft at the distances from which they release their bombs, while the Patriot system has no missiles of the type that have already shot down several Su-34s in mid-air. [1] The destruction of four aircraft and at least damage to two more is therefore a major success. [1] The weapon used was a Neptune missile. [1] It was originally designed to fight enemy ships. [1] It is launched from ground-based launchers and flies close to the terrain on its way to the target. [1] The manufacturer completed the first battery shortly before the invasion began. [1] Until it sank the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship in April 2022, it was not known whether the Ukrainians had made it operational. [1] The sinking of the cruiser Moskva provided a clear answer. [1] Since then, the missile has been repeatedly upgraded. [1] The aim was not only to extend its range, but also to enable it to strike ground targets. [1] Both have been achieved, as the attack on Borisoglebsk demonstrates. [1] Local residents managed to record the moment of its arrival and impact on the target. [1] There are signs of fire at the aircraft stands marked one and six. [1] The damaged aircraft probably stood there. [1] Two Su-34 wrecks are clearly visible at positions two and five, while at positions three and four, alongside a crane clearing debris, there is mainly a large burnt-out area and the outline of one Su-34. [1] The Ukrainians therefore had a very short window between detecting the target and carrying out the attack. [1] That they succeeded points to highly accurate intelligence and a very short response time. [1] It was very careless of the Russians to park at least four, but more likely as many as six, valuable combat-ready aircraft so close together, even for a short time. [1]
Russian Air Force Strain and Losses
By 2022, Russia had built 147 aircraft, including prototypes. [1] Exact production figures since the start of the invasion are not known, but according to Polish analyst Jaroslaw Wolski, Russia lost between a quarter and a third of its annual production on Thursday, which is estimated at between 18 and 24 aircraft. [1] This is more likely an upper estimate, and average actual production over the entire period of the invasion is probably lower. [1] Meanwhile, the Oryx website has counted 44 Su-34s lost to date; with the additional six, the total has now reached 50. [1] Russia has therefore produced no more than around 200 aircraft of this type, a quarter of which it has lost in combat, while at least half of the remainder are unfit for combat as a result of wear and tear. [1] The Russian Z-channel Fighterbomber said on Friday that the annual flying time of a Russian air force fighter jet amounted to thousands of hours. [1] It wrote this in connection with its claim that, although the Ukrainian air force was incapable of fighting the Russian one, it and Ukrainian drones were nevertheless “consuming the resources of all our fighter jets, which have essentially been continuously in the air for five years, taking turns with one another”. [1] Fighterbomber concluded that although “we have many aircraft, there are still too few of them”. [1] Since this year, Russia has been able to mount six glide bombs under each Su-34, rather than four. [1] The loss of six aircraft — since even damaged aircraft cannot fight, at least temporarily — therefore means at least 36 fewer precision-guided bombs against Ukrainian positions each day. [1] This assumes, of course, that every aircraft flies only one mission per day. [1] In practice, they fly more, making this a significant relief for soldiers on the front line. [1]
Zelenskyy confirms Starlink speed restrictions hindered interception of jet-powered Shaheds. — Source: ukrainskapravda
Patriot Missile Shortage and Air Defence Crisis
Ukraine has run out of Patriot missiles, while parts of Kyiv are without electricity following new air raids. [1] A shortage of the most advanced surface-to-air missiles, which alone can effectively shoot down Russian ballistic missiles, is nothing new. [1] Ukrainian batteries have previously had nothing to fire, leaving them to watch Russian air raids helplessly. [1] CNN reported most recently that this had happened again. [1] Russian missiles consequently damaged three Kyiv power plants again on Wednesday morning. [1] The destructive air raid was repeated on Friday morning. [1] It led to emergency power cuts. [1] “Power outages have been recorded in Kyiv, as well as in Kyiv, Volyn, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions. Work to restore supplies has already begun wherever the security situation permits,” NEC Ukrenergo said. [1] The NV website reported that 370,000 customer connections in Volyn region alone had been left without power. [1] The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the heating season officially began in Kyiv on Thursday. [1] However, as NV wrote, this was not possible in two Kyiv districts because energy workers had not had time to deal with the consequences of the attacks. [1] Ukraine has completely exhausted its stock of interceptor missiles for the US-made Patriot air defence systems. [4] According to one source, Ukraine had only 10 Patriot missiles left as of 7 October. [4] “These were used up during the attacks. Currently, there are only a couple remaining,” a Ukrainian official said. [4] A second person familiar with Ukraine's deteriorating air defence situation said the country is out of the sophisticated weapons, which are critical to shooting down incoming Russian ballistic missiles. [4] A Ukrainian official stressed that “the situation is extremely tense”. [4] CNN reported earlier that Ukraine had run out of Patriot missiles. [4] Global missile stocks have been rapidly depleted by the war in the Middle East, launched by US President Donald Trump. [4] In the first month of the war with Iran alone, the US used more than 1,000 Patriot and THAAD interceptors. [4] Until now, missiles for Ukraine have been supplied through the PURL programme. [4] A senior NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the programme remained operational and that “air defence munitions like Patriot interceptors continue to flow”. [4] However, a Ukrainian official raised concerns about the nature of the deliveries. [4] “Since May, supplies have been irregular, and right now no one can say with any certainty or guarantee that a delivery will actually arrive,” the official said. [4]
Starlink Speed Restrictions Impact
Ukraine was unable to intercept jet-powered Shahed drones to protect civilians because Starlink connection speeds had been reduced. [2] The reduction in Starlink speeds had also prevented Ukraine from striking military targets in occupied territories and delivering water and food to Ukrainian troops. [2] The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not use Starlink to conduct long-range strikes on Russian territory. [2] “We use [Starlink] to intercept jet-powered Shaheds that strike our civilians and kill our families. We use specialised interceptors that move at high speeds. Interceptor drones that operate specifically with Starlink,” Zelenskyy said. [2] Starlink had not been switched off, but its connection speed had been reduced. [2] “When the speed was reduced, we were unable to intercept some of the jet-powered Shaheds… In other words, we were unable to use a tool to protect civilians. This is very painful and unpleasant.” [2] Jet-powered Shaheds fly at speeds of more than 400 km/h, while the Starlink restrictions had reduced the equipment speed available to Ukrainian troops intercepting Russian drones to 70 km/h. [2] Ukraine uses Starlink for mid-range strikes against Russian military targets in temporarily occupied territories, but the reduction in connection speeds had prevented it from carrying out those operations as well. [2] Starlink is needed to deliver water and food to Ukrainian troops who spend weeks or months on the front line in areas under the Russians' full drone surveillance. [2] The Defence Ministry is in daily contact with the United States and had recently received information that the connection speed had been resumed. [2] “If that is the case, we are very grateful,” the president added. [2] “We approached SpaceX and the White House to ask them to enable this capability,” Zelenskyy said, noting that Ukraine has not received a positive response to its request. [2] The order to restrict the use of the Starshield satellite system, which Ukraine uses for battlefield communications and drone control, had come from the White House. [2] Ukrainian officials told CNN they had not received the early-warning alerts about Russian ballistic missile launches that had previously helped authorities warn civilians to seek shelter. [5] Restrictions affecting Starlink connectivity used by Ukrainian military drones disrupted some offensive and defensive operations. [5]
Ukrainian Neptune missile strike damaged Russian Su-34 aircraft at Borisoglebsk airfield. — Source: ukrainskapravda
Nuclear Facility and Energy Infrastructure Developments
The eighth localized ceasefire facilitated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) between Ukraine and the Russian Federation commenced on Thursday morning, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi confirmed. [3] The temporary ceasefire enables the repair of a backup transformer that has been damaged by military activity near the Zaporizhzhya Thermal Power Plant. [3] The repair will strengthen the connection between the Zaporizhzhya. [3]
Front-Line and Regional Incidents
Ukrainian soldiers capture a Russian soldier in its centre in the “captured” part of Kharkiv region. [1] A Russian drone destroyed a grocery store in Odesa while it was fully operational. [1] Drones sank a ship off the Bulgarian coast, and Sofia turned to Nato. [1]
What to watch next: Ukrainian officials stressed that the air defence situation remains extremely tense amid irregular supplies, while the Defence Ministry continues daily contact with the United States regarding resumed Starlink speeds.
