Ukraine Conflict Sees Russian Forces Reach Outskirts of Kostiantynivka
In the Ukraine conflict, Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast from multiple directions, infiltrating the settlement while sustaining heavy losses in an advance that Ukrainian military analysts warn could mirror the costly capture of Pokrovsk and open a gateway toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
Russian Advance on Kostiantynivka
DeepState analysts report Russian infantry advancing from the east via Novodmytrivka and from directions of Berestok and Illinivka, with forces exerting intense pressure and gradually shifting to a long-term strategy to capture Kostiantynivka. [1] Russian forces hold a manpower advantage near the city and are systematically destroying the city, reducing it to ruins that will eventually become impossible to defend. [1] The analysts noted that the Russians continue to sustain heavy losses but do not appear to factor them into their operations. [1] DeepState compared the situation to Pokrovsk, where Russian forces suffered significant casualties yet ultimately captured the city. [1] DeepState said Russian forces hold a manpower advantage near the city and are gradually shifting to a long-term strategy aimed at capturing Kostiantynivka, partly mirroring the approach previously seen around Pokrovsk. [1] Over the past day, Ukrainian forces repelled 25 Russian assaults on the Pokrovsk front and 12 attacks on the Kostiantynivka front, part of 228 total combat clashes across the battlefield with the highest activity on Pokrovsk, Lyman and Huliaipole fronts. [5]
Strategic Implications for Donetsk Oblast
Capturing Kostiantynivka would enable Russian advances on Druzhkivka, a key logistics hub, followed by Kramatorsk, dramatically complicating Ukrainian logistics and troop movements while increasing risks from Russian drone operators. [1] DeepState described Kostiantynivka as a gateway to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. [1] The analysts argued that if Kostiantynivka falls, which they described as a matter of time, Druzhkivka would likely become the next target, followed by Kramatorsk. [1] They added that once Kostiantynivka comes under Russian control, logistics for Ukraine's defence forces in the area would change dramatically, creating major difficulties for troop movements and making even the presence of Ukrainian forces in Kramatorsk extremely dangerous due to the increased reach of Russian drone operators. [1] According to DeepState, Russian forces would then seek to open another gateway towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. [1]
Ukrainian AI-powered drones counter Russian attacks near Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast. — Source: newsmax
Daily Combat Activity Across Fronts
A total of 228 combat clashes have occurred on the battlefield over the past day, with the Russians conducting the highest number of attacks on the Pokrovsk, Lyman and Huliaipole fronts. [5] On the North Slobozhanshchyna front and in the operational zone in Russia's Kursk Oblast, the Russians conducted 56 strikes on Ukrainian positions and populated areas, including one from a multiple-launch rocket system. [5] Three Russian assaults were recorded. [5] On the South Slobozhanshchyna front, the Russians tried five times to attack Ukrainian positions towards the settlements of Starytsia, Izbytske, Vilcha, Vovchansk and Vochanski Khutory. [5] On the Kupiansk front, the Russians attacked four times towards the settlements of Kupiansk, Kindrashivka, Kurylivka and Podoly. [5] On the Lyman front, the Russians made 23 attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defence near the settlements of Zarichne, Lyman, Novoselivka, Drobysheve, Dibrova, Novomykhailivka, Novoiehorivka, Ozerne and Yampil. [5] On the Sloviansk front, the Russians carried out 12 assaults towards the village of Rai-Oleksandrivka and near the settlements of Riznykivka, Kryva Luka, Zakitne and Kalenyky. [5] On the Kramatorsk front, the Russians did not conduct any offensive actions. [5] On the Kostiantynivka front, the Russians conducted 12 attacks near the settlements of Illinivka, Pleshchiivka, Stepanivka and Vilne and towards Bilytske, Novoselivka and Kostiantynivka. [5] On the Pokrovsk front, Ukraine's defence forces stopped 25 Russian attacks towards the settlements of Dobropillia, Novyi Donbas, Bilytske, Rodynske, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Zatyshok, Shevchenko, Myrne, Hryshyne, Serhiivka, Muravka and Novopavlivka. [5] On the Oleksandrivka front, the Russians conducted four attacks towards the village of Novoselivka, Kalynivske, Vyshneve and Oleksandrohrad. [5] On the Huliaipole front, the Russians conducted 22 assaults towards the settlements of Zlahoda, Dobropillia, Radisne, Rivnopillia, Vozdvyzhivka, Huliaipilske, Dolynka, Verkhnia Tersa, Ternuvate, Shyroke and Charivne. [5] On the Orikhiv front, Ukraine's defence forces stopped five Russian attempts to advance near the settlements of Pavlivka, Stepnohirsk and Stepove. [5] On the Prydniprovske front, the Russians carried out attacks towards Antonivka. [5] On the Volyn and Polissia fronts, there were no signs of Russian offensive groups being formed in the area. [5]
Ukrainian Assessment and Response
Ukrainian officials, including Brigadier General Oleksandr Bakulin, state that approximately 123 Russian servicemen are in Kostiantynivka but emphasize it is premature to claim Russian control of any part of the city, distinguishing the situation from Pokrovsk. [1] On 12 June, media reports said that at least 100 Russian soldiers had infiltrated Kostiantynivka, with Ukraine's defence forces detecting Russian troops in the city centre. [1] Commenting on the situation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine said it was not critical. [1] Brigadier General Oleksandr Bakulin, Commander of the 19th Army Corps, said that approximately 123 Russian servicemen are believed to be present in Kostiantynivka. [1] Meanwhile, the general stressed that the situations in Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka are not identical. [1] To say that the enemy controls any part of Kostiantynivka at this point would be premature and an exaggeration, Bakulin emphasised. [1]
Ukrainian forces strengthen drone defences along the border with Belarus. — Source: ukrainskapravda
Drone Warfare Developments
Ukraine is reinforcing its northern border with Belarus through new unmanned systems units equipped for reconnaissance, strikes and defense, amid reports of Russia building five new Shahed drone launch sites near the border. [4] Ukraine is increasingly deploying artificial intelligence-powered interceptor drones to counter Russia's frequent attacks using Iranian-designed Shahed drones, according to military technology developers and government officials. [2] Ukraine is increasingly deploying artificial intelligence-powered interceptor drones to counter Russia's frequent attacks using Iranian-designed Shahed drones, according to military technology developers and government officials. [3] Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has said that Ukraine will reinforce its border defences with Belarus by deploying additional unmanned systems units. [4] A decision has been made to form new unmanned systems units in order to improve the effectiveness of border defence. [4] They will be supplied with the necessary weapons, equipment and other resources to carry out assigned tasks. [4] We are also continuing to build up the capabilities of the units already operating in the area, Syrskyi said. [4] Syrskyi also said he had received briefings on restoring military units to full combat readiness after operations and on replenishing their stocks of weapons and equipment. [4] A decision has been taken to scale up the unmanned component within their ranks. [4] He added that the move will significantly strengthen the units' capabilities for reconnaissance, strikes against Russian forces and the defence of areas of responsibility designated by military command. [4] On 10 June, Radio Liberty's Belarus Service reported that Russia has built five new launch sites for Shahed loitering munitions near Belarus. [4] Some of these sites are located just a few dozen kilometres from the border. [4] Satellite imagery indicates that the new drone launch facilities are located in Russia's Bryansk, Oryansk and Smolensk oblasts. [4]
Border Defense Enhancements
Particular attention is being paid to strengthening the defence of the country's northern border. [4] Commenting on potential threats from Belarus, Robert Magyar Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, said that the Ukrainian military has identified 500 targets on Belarusian territory. [4] He also urged self-proclaimed Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko not to stick in Ukraine's craw. [4] Lukashenko threatened to strike one very serious target in Ukraine, claiming that Minsk supposedly possesses the coordinates. [4] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier said that Russia continues attempts to draw Belarus into the war, including, potentially, as part of preparations for an operation against a NATO member state. [4] Lukashenko has said that no military action should be expected from Belarus and apologised to Zelenskyy for his harsh remarks. [4]
What to watch next: Analysts will continue monitoring whether Kostiantynivka falls and becomes the next gateway toward Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk while new unmanned systems units strengthen the northern border against potential Shahed launches from the five new sites in Bryansk, Oryansk and Smolensk oblasts.
