Trump Prepares Expanded Iran Campaign as Israeli Officials Warn of Direct Tehran Retaliation
Israeli officials believe US President Donald Trump is preparing to significantly escalate the American military campaign against Iran, including strikes on the heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site near Natanz, raising fears that Tehran could retaliate directly against Israel amid Iran tensions. [1]
Israeli Assessment of US Escalation Plans
Israeli officials believe US President Donald Trump is preparing to significantly escalate the American military campaign against Iran, according to two Israeli officials. [1] According to the assessment, an expanded US campaign targeting Iranian strategic infrastructure and senior regime officials would likely prompt Tehran to retaliate directly against Israel. [1] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a six-hour security consultation on Monday night with several ministers and senior defense officials to assess the evolving situation. [1] During the meeting, an Israeli official said, Netanyahu briefly left the discussion to speak with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. [1]
Ongoing US Strikes and Trump's Warnings
US Central Command has entered its 11th consecutive day of strikes against Iran. [1] A source familiar with the operation told The Jerusalem Post that CENTCOM has struck approximately 1,000 targets across Iran over the past 10 days. [1] On Tuesday during a meeting with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Trump said Tehran was “desperate” to hold talks, warning that it had “not seen anything yet.” [1] Trump added that the US will be hitting the Pickaxe Mountain area, located near Iran's heavily damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility, "pretty soon." [1] US Central Command continues strikes on Iran after Trump says he'll hit Pickaxe Mountain. [1]
Details on the Pickaxe Mountain Target
Pickaxe Mountain is a heavily fortified site that hosts two deeply buried tunnel complexes that experts assess as beyond the reach of the most powerful bunker-buster bombs in the US arsenal. [1] The site is regarded by military analysts as one of Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facilities, with reports suggesting parts of the complex may lie beyond the reach of existing bunker buster munitions. [3] Trump warned during a meeting with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun that the US could target the Pickaxe Mountain complex, an underground facility near the Natanz uranium enrichment site believed to house deeply buried nuclear infrastructure. [3]
Iran's Warnings Against Ground Offensive
Iran warns US would face heavy fire in any ground offensive. [2] Army spokesman says invading forces would lose technological edge in face-to-face combat. [2] Iran has warned that the US would face heavy fire in any ground offensive, with invading forces losing their technological edge in face-to-face combat. [2]
Houthi Blockade Threat and Red Sea Tensions
Yemen’s Houthi movement announced a naval blockade targeting Saudi ports. [3] The Houthis declared that commercial vessels would be prohibited from loading or unloading cargo at Saudi ports, warning that ships violating the order would become “potential targets” within the group’s operational range. [3] According to shipping data, two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to China and India changed course in the Red Sea following the announcement, raising fresh concerns over regional shipping routes and global energy supplies. [3] Trump also addressed the Houthi threat, saying the US would respond if the Bab el Mandeb Strait were blocked. [3] “So far, this has not happened. It might happen, but we are taking care of things. If something like this happens, we will take action,” he said. [3] The president added that relations with the Houthis had remained calm in recent months, saying, “We have had no problem with the Houthis. They have had no problem with us for a long time.” [3] Arab Saudi could be drawn into the US-Iran conflict after condemning the Houthi threat. [5]
US Munitions Stock Concerns and Wider Risks
Analysts assess that US munitions stocks are strained for a prolonged war with Iran. [4] Some analysts believe the United States may not have sufficient ammunition supplies to sustain an all-out long-term war against Iran. [4] Katherine Thompson, a senior researcher in defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute, said the biggest challenge lies not in initial combat capability but in the duration of the conflict. [4] “If the conflict only lasts a few weeks before a ceasefire is reached, it might still be manageable. But I am not sure our ammunition stocks are in good enough condition if the war lasts one to two years,” she said as quoted by New York Post. [4] CSIS estimates that before the latest war broke out again, the US had used more than 3,000 Tomahawk, Patriot and JASSM missiles in various operations against Iran. [4] In addition, hundreds of other advanced weapons systems, including THAAD, have also been used intensively. [4] According to CSIS, most of those supplies are not expected to return to normal levels until the end of the decade. [4] The Pentagon asserts that its weapons stocks remain adequate, while CSIS cautions that the US could be vulnerable if the conflict expands, especially if war with China breaks out. [4]
What to watch next: Trump has warned that the US will hit Pickaxe Mountain pretty soon, while shipping data shows two oil tankers already changed course after the Houthi blockade announcement.
