Sudan Conflict Sees SAF Recapture Bara and Nearby Towns Along Export Road

Sudanese Armed Forces under Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan have recaptured the North Kordofan towns of Bara, Jabra El Sheikh, and Um Sayala from the Rapid Support Forces amid the Sudan conflict, strengthening control over the strategic Omdurman-El Obeid Export Road while fighting continues and a displacement crisis swells in El Obeid.

SAF Recaptures Key North Kordofan Towns

Sovereignty Council President and Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan visited the newly captured towns of Bara, Jabra El Sheikh, and Um Sayala on Monday, a day after the army announced it had seized the areas from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. [1] Travelling by military helicopter, El Burhan inspected frontline troops alongside Darfur Governor Minni Arko Minnawi, North Kordofan Governor Abdelkhaliq Abdelatif, and Sudan Shield Forces commander Abu Agla Keikil, according to the Sovereignty Council. [1] The visit comes as fierce fighting continues across North Kordofan, where both sides are battling for control of the strategic Omdurman-El Obeid Export Road. [1] Military analyst Brig Gen Walid Ezzeldin told Radio Dabanga that the recent advances are significant because they strengthen the SAF's control of the Export Road, one of Sudan's most important military and logistical corridors. [1] He said the road is vital for moving troops, ammunition, fuel and supplies towards Kordofan and Darfur, while Bara's location on the Omdurman-El Obeid route makes it a strategic objective for both the SAF and the RSF. [1] Ezzeldin added that securing nearby areas such as Jabra El Sheikh and Um Sayala is essential to protect supply lines and prevent attacks on military convoys. [1] Political analyst Suhaib Hamid told Radio Dabanga that the SAF launched its offensive simultaneously across several axes to secure the El Obeid-Bara-Omdurman road and strengthen its wider campaign in Kordofan. [1] Jabra El Sheikh Executive Director Mohammed El Daw announced plans to begin rebuilding infrastructure damaged during the fighting, calling on residents to help restore water, health and education services. [1] He also said Médecins Sans Frontières had expressed readiness to launch emergency medical operations in Bara following a needs assessment. [1] Residents in El Obeid celebrated the recent advances during El Burhan's visit. [1]

Strategic Importance of the Export Road

Nihad El Tayeb, senior research assistant at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, said the recapture of Bara, Jabra El Sheikh, and Um Sayala marks a major strategic breakthrough. [1] She said the gains reconnect the SAF's Fifth Infantry Division in El Obeid with forces further east, creating a more efficient supply route than the previous corridor through White Nile state. [1] According to El Tayeb, the advance improves the army's ability to defend El Obeid and strengthens its position for future operations towards West Kordofan, although she expects the RSF to attempt a counteroffensive. [1] Analysts see the Export Road as key to the broader military campaign in the Sudan conflict because it allows more direct movement of troops and supplies compared with longer alternative routes. [1] The coordinated offensive across multiple axes has allowed the SAF to secure segments of the El Obeid-Bara-Omdurman road while preparing defensive positions. [1]

Sudanese Armed Forces recapture Bara, Jabra El Sheikh and Um Sayala towns in North Kordofan. — Source: myjoyonline

Escalating Threats to El Obeid

Clashes between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the military have escalated in the North Kordofan region. [2] The UN and G7 foreign ministers have now issued warnings that the RSF may be preparing to attack the city, raising fears that atrocities akin to those seen during the massacre in el-Fasher could be repeated. [2] Thousands of people were killed in mass executions after the paramilitary overran SAF troops defending the city last October. [2] Verified footage now shows dozens of heavily armed RSF troops in armoured trucks stationed in Nyala, a key nearby stronghold, vowing to "liberate" the city. [2] The RSF launched a record number of drone strikes on the city in June, according to the monitoring group Armed Conflict Location and Event Data. [2] The number of attacks only fell in July because the RSF was responding to Sudanese military attacks elsewhere in Sudan, analysts added. [2] Satellite images show that despite the strikes, el-Obeid's displacement camp has continued to swell. [2] Recent footage located by BBC Verify placed fighters within 40km of the city. [2] In one clip posted to the paramilitary's official Telegram channel, a commander could be seen waving an assault rifle while addressing a group of troops, promising that they would soon see combat in el-Obeid. [2] Another verified clip from late May showed paramilitary fighters gathering alongside dozens of armoured vehicles just outside the RSF heartland of Nyala. [2] One fighter seen leaning on the door of an armoured vehicle boasted that the unit's next target was el-Obeid. [2] RSF fighters and leaders have repeatedly vowed in verified video footage to move on the city. [2]

Displacement and Humanitarian Conditions in El Obeid

The UN's International Organization for Migration said el-Obeid has become a key refuge for people escaping ongoing violence in the surrounding areas. [2] Satellite imagery shows the main displacement camp has expanded significantly since March, with aid workers reporting dozens of new arrivals each day. [2] "Families have run out of safe options to protect themselves," Mohamed Refaat, IOM chief of mission in Sudan, said. [2] "Many have already been displaced before and are once again forced to leave behind their homes, livelihoods and support networks." [2] The UN has estimated that more than 83,000 civilians have now fled fighting in other parts of the state and sought shelter in the city. [2] Last week the UN warned nearly 400,000 people in the city's vicinity are facing food shortages, following a sustained effort by RSF commanders to cut off supply routes into the city for months, creating what one UN official called a "functional siege". [2] Aid agencies say the food and water shortages have been exacerbated by RSF drone strikes on critical infrastructure. [2] Verified video footage last month showed a massive explosion at a fuel station in the heart of the city after one such strike, while satellite images also appear to show damage to power stations and supply warehouses in the city's market district. [2] One humanitarian official working with Islamic Relief said the slowing of drone strikes in recent days has improved the situation in the city. [2] But he emphasised that while more aid is being distributed and some power has been restored, the situation remained extremely "unpredictable" with fuel shortages still an issue. [2] "Every day we are seeing new arrivals due to fighting in areas around El-Obeid. It is not possible to get the exact number of people who are arriving on a daily basis, but it would be about 80 or 100 households daily," the aid worker said. [2] Volker Türk, the UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights, recently said that many displaced people who have sought shelter in el-Obeid have faced suspicion and hostility from locals over fears that RSF sympathisers are infiltrating the city. [2]

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RSF Counter-Claims and Local Responses

An RSF military source rejected claims of a decisive victory. [1] The source said RSF forces still surround El Obeid from North Darfur's axis of Jabel Eisa and El Hashaba and continue to control key water sources, insisting that the SAF's gains in North Kordofan has not yet been consolidated. [1] The Sudanese military appears to be digging in and building a defensive berm around the city, satellite images suggest. [2] Unlike the one built around el-Fasher by the RSF last year, which trapped people inside the besieged city, this appears to be defensive and aimed at keeping attackers out. [2] On Monday, the military also said that a massive operation had secured a vital highway between el-Obeid and the capital, Khartoum. [2] In response, the RSF's leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is known as Hemedti, said he was "unleashing" his fighters and ordered his front-line commanders to "move straight forward. No more retreat. No more hesitation". [2] Nohad Eltayeb, Senior Research Assistant at Acled, told BBC Verify that the city is a key hub for both sides to the conflict. [2] "It is the critical juncture connecting RSF-controlled western territories with the military-held central and White Nile regions," Eltayeb said. [2] She added that the RSF "need to regain momentum following territorial losses in the eastern Blue Nile region, alongside internal instability and defections within its Darfur strongholds". [2]

International Warnings and Context

The joint EU/G7 warning of atrocities in el-Obeid urged all "external actors" to suspend "armed, logistical, or financial support to the parties to the conflict". [2] Earlier this month the European Parliament expressly named the United Arab Emirates as a key backer of the RSF. [2] Emirati officials have repeatedly denied the allegations. [2] Alan Boswell, Crisis Group's Horn of Africa Group director, suggested that the flurry of early Western interventions may be motivated by the failure to avert the el-Fasher massacre, which was the culmination of an extended siege and RSF build-up. [2] "Many are trying to turn up the volume on those warnings to prevent another round of mass atrocities in el-Obeid," he said. [2] "The key is if world leaders will put enough pressure on the RSF and its main backer to make a difference this time." [2]

What to watch next: RSF sources claim they continue to surround El Obeid from the Jabel Eisa and El Hashaba axes while vowing to attack the city, and analysts expect the RSF to attempt a counteroffensive against recent SAF gains along the Export Road.