Sudan Army Gains in North Kordofan as RSF Defections Rise

Sudan's army has made battlefield gains in North Kordofan, coinciding with a wave of defections from the Rapid Support Forces and a new political initiative from army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan that maintains military pressure while opening dialogue excluding RSF leaders.

Army Advances in North Kordofan

Sudanese armed forces retook Bara, Jabra al-Sheikh, Umm Sayala and other positions in North Kordofan in late July, securing the national Exports Road and pressuring RSF supply lines. [2] The clearest recent gains have come in North Kordofan, a state in central Sudan that links the capital, Khartoum, with the country’s western regions. [2] Al Jazeera reported that the advances also secured the national Exports Road, a key route linking Khartoum, through Omdurman, with el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan. [2] The gains do not amount to control of the wider Kordofan region. [2] The army’s control of the Exports Road has strengthened its position in North Kordofan and added pressure on RSF supply lines. [2] Al Jazeera reported on August 21 that the army was continuing efforts to cut those supply lines as fighting expanded across Kordofan, Darfur and the Blue Nile region. [2]

Wave of RSF Defections

Hundreds of RSF fighters and commanders, including groups of 318, 270 and 45, have defected to the army in recent weeks, raising questions about RSF cohesion amid battlefield setbacks. [2] On August 20, the army announced that about 318 people, including four officers, had joined its ranks, arriving in Northern state in about 50 combat vehicles before moving to Omdurman. [2] Al Jazeera also reported separate groups from Kordofan and Khartoum, including 270 people, among them 21 field commanders, as well as 45 fighters and commanders from the Bara area who surrendered to the army. [2] The timing of the defections links them to several factors, including battlefield developments, internal problems within the RSF, social and tribal dynamics, and pressure created by the army’s advances and efforts to disrupt RSF supply lines. [2] The trend does not by itself mean the RSF is collapsing. [2] If the trend continues, it could become increasingly significant, particularly if more commanders and fighters conclude that the battlefield balance is shifting against the RSF. [2] For now, the more cautious conclusion is that battlefield pressure may be affecting the RSF’s cohesion without yet amounting to a broader breakdown of the organisation. [2]

Al-Burhan's Dual Military and Political Track

Al-Burhan announced a national dialogue with temporary immunity and guarantees for participants, managed independently, but rejected any peace that would bring RSF commander Hemedti to power and said fighting would continue until the rebellion ends. [2] On August 15, he announced that the state would provide temporary immunity and legal, political and security guarantees to participants in a national dialogue managed by an independent national mechanism. [2] Criminal proceedings against participants facing charges would be suspended during their involvement in the dialogue, without removing the rights of those who had filed complaints. [2] Al-Burhan said the initiative came from a group of Sudanese who had approached him with a proposal for dialogue. [2] He said the group would independently manage the process and that the state would not determine its agenda or outcomes. [2] He also said he had begun engaging with national forces that had supported the state and its institutions, with the aim of involving them in completing state institutions, including a legislative council. [2] Al-Burhan said he would not accept what he called a “peace without substance” that would bring RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, and his supporters to power. [2] He also said the path to peace begins with the RSF leaving cities and being gathered in designated areas. [2] On August 21, Al Jazeera reported that al-Burhan said the fighting would continue until what he described as the rebellion was ended, while the army was working to cut RSF supply lines. [2] He also rejected a truce that would allow the RSF to reorganise, while saying he remained open to a just peace and national dialogue that excluded the RSF. [2]

Government Position on Negotiations

Malik Agar stated the current option is military resolution unless serious negotiation conditions emerge, requiring RSF withdrawal from cities, while the army would ultimately win but end the war through talks. [2] In an interview with Al Jazeera on August 22, Agar said the current option was military resolution unless serious conditions for negotiations emerged. [2] He said the RSF would have to withdraw from cities and residential areas before negotiations could begin, stressing that the government remained open to initiatives that preserve Sudan’s unity and state institutions. [2] In a separate Al Jazeera interview published on August 23, Agar said the army would win but that the war would ultimately end through negotiations. [2] He argued that Sudan’s crisis was rooted in deeper problems, including the weakness of the state and the failure of political elites to manage the country’s ethnic, cultural, religious and geographic diversity. [2] His position reflects the government’s broader calculation: maintain military pressure while leaving the door open to negotiations from a stronger position on the battlefield. [2]

Escalating Drone Warfare and Arms Embargo Call

UN officials reported heavy drone use by both sides striking civilian sites, with 1,100 civilian deaths from drones documented between January and June, amid calls for a nationwide arms embargo opposed by Russia and China. [5] US President Donald Trump's senior Africa envoy has asked the UN to extend its arms embargo from Darfur to all of Sudan, warning the war could spread across the wider region. [5] The UN Security Council "must act to stop external financial and military support to the parties, such as drones and related technologies, from entering Sudan," Massad Boulos said. [5] Drone attacks are escalating with both the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) accused of using them. [5] A wider arms embargo would require a Security Council vote, with Russia and China opposing the move. [5] They said it would affect Sudan's army's effectiveness. [5] Sudan's UN envoy agreed, adding it would weaken protection for civilians. [5] As the UN Security Council heard appeals about the arms embargo, the army was reported to have carried out drone strikes on RSF positions in Nyala in Darfur. [5] At the council meeting, UN's humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, warned that fighting had in recent weeks been "characterised by the heavy use of drones". [5] Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN's under secretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs, told the council that civilians were facing "the unrelenting consequences of one of the worst humanitarian crises of our time". [5] "Drones launched by both sides have repeatedly struck markets, schools, fuel stations and water infrastructure," she said, adding that the UN had documented that 1,100 civilians had died in drone strikes between January and June this year. [5] DiCarlo noted that the true death toll since the war began was uncertain but was "likely to be in the hundreds of thousands". [5] The continued use of "sophisticated weaponry" pointed to ongoing external support to both sides, she added. [5] Boulos said the US plan included a proposal to increase the number of experts monitoring the embargo. [5] He asked the council to take steps to curtail "external actors" fuelling the conflict, adding that this "risks drawing more regional actors and neighbours deeper into Sudan's conflict". [5] Sudan's military chief seemed unfazed by the proposals under discussion by the UN. [5] "The continuing talk about the possibility of imposing sanctions on the country will neither affect us nor weaken our resolve," Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan told a police graduation event in the capital, Khartoum, on Monday. [5]

Broader Context of the Conflict

Now in its fourth year, the conflict has killed tens of thousands of people and forced 14 million more to flee their homes. [5] The army controls much of Sudan's central and eastern regions, while the RSF is headquartered in the western region of Darfur and also controls areas in the south. [5] An arms embargo covering the Darfur region has been in place for more than two decades - and will expire next month if not amended or renewed. [5] Observers say it seems to have done little to stop the flow of weapons into Darfur, which has witnessed some of the worst fighting since the conflict erupted in April 2023. [5] Ethnic violence witnessed 20 years ago has reignited in Darfur, with UN experts saying atrocities allegedly committed by RSF fighters as they took over the city of el-Fasher last October showed the "hallmarks" of genocide. [5] The two warring rivals had been allies - coming to power together in a coup in 2021 - but fell out over an internationally backed plan to move towards civilian rule. [5] The army’s gains in North Kordofan have strengthened its position along a strategically important route. [2] The growing defections from the RSF are raising questions about the force’s cohesion. [2] At the same time, the RSF remains active on several fronts, and the wider battlefield remains contested. [2] That combination gives the recent developments significance beyond individual battles or defections. [2] The changing military balance may now be beginning to shape the terms of Sudan’s next political phase. [2]

What to watch next: The army’s recent gains are best understood not as evidence of a decisive victory, but as a shift in the conditions under which the next phase of the war may be fought, and eventually negotiated. [2] For al-Burhan, the potential advantage is not simply territorial. [2] If military pressure continues to produce defections and weaken RSF cohesion, it could give the SAF greater room to shape who participates in a political process and the conditions under which future negotiations take place. [2] For the RSF, the challenge is therefore not only to hold territory. [2] It is to prevent battlefield pressure from becoming an internal crisis of cohesion. [2] That has not happened yet. [2] Military setbacks do not automatically translate into political marginalisation. [2] Can the RSF contain the defections and preserve its bargaining position, or will continued military pressure give al-Burhan greater leverage in Sudan’s next political phase? [2]