Most Dangerous Countries Face New Ceasefire with Nigerian Boko Haram Faction
Multiple ongoing conflicts around the world continue to drive displacement, alleged war crimes, and fragile ceasefires, with new developments reported in Sudan, Yemen, Nigeria, and Chad, highlighting challenges across most dangerous countries.
Nigeria's Ceasefire with Boko Haram Faction
The Nigerian government has reportedly entered a secret ceasefire with the Bakura Doro faction of Boko Haram that has reduced attacks in parts of Borno State for three months since June, linked to the release of over 300 civilians abducted in Ngoshe. [1] There are currently about three factions of Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, also known as Boko Haram. [1] The factions spread across the North-east and North-central Nigeria are believed to be loyal to Mr Doro, who succeeded Abubakar Shekau, who was killed in a 2021 infighting with rival Islamic State West Africa Province. [1] Two of the factions are believed to be based in the North-east and led by Ali Ngulde and Alhai Kale, while the one in the North-central is led by Mallam Sadiku. [1] Mr Doro is believed to be currently based in Lake Chad island. [1] Three people with contacts among senior Boko Haram members told The New Humanitarian that the truce has been in effect since June and is expected to be extended. [1] It was linked to efforts to secure the release of over 300 civilians abducted in March from Ngoshe, a community in Gwoza Local Government Area of Borno State. [1] After spending about 95 days in captivity, the victims were released following what the government described as an intelligence-led operation by a combined force of Operation Hadin Kai, a joint task force in the North-east, and the State Security Service. [1] The hostages were freed in June after negotiations involving government representatives, intermediaries and the insurgents. [1] Sources cited by the publication said the agreement also included a ransom payment of N5 billion, a report the government has denied. [1] Samaila Kaigama, a youth leader in Borno, was the first to allege that the government paid ransom to free the Ngoshe captives. [1] During an interview on Channels TV in July, Mr Kaigama alleged that a N5 billion ransom was paid. [1] He linked Ali Ndume, a senator representing Borno South, to the ransom facilitation. [1] However, the senator rejected the claim. [1] Mr Kaigama has since been arrested by SSS and arraigned in court. [1] The SSS said it has found evidence linking him to the extortion of families of kidnap victims, an allegation first made by Mr Ndume while clarifying his position on Channels TV. [1] A recent report by the SBM Intelligence also stated that a N5 billion ransom was paid for the release of the Ngoshe captives. [1] The Nigerian authorities have consistently maintained a policy against paying ransoms to terrorist groups, but on several occasions, critics accused them of violating this policy. [1] The report by The New Humanitarian stated that the ceasefire has significantly reduced attacks attributed to the Bakura Doro faction since June, while humanitarian workers and residents have observed an unusual lull in violence across parts of Borno State. [1] However, the publication noted that the truce does not extend to the Islamic State West Africa Province, which remains active and continues to launch attacks against military positions and civilian communities in the Lake Chad region. [1] Officials familiar with the negotiations told the publication that discussions were driven by both humanitarian concerns and the government’s desire to explore dialogue as a possible pathway to reducing violence after more than 16 years of insurgency. [1] The federal government has not publicly acknowledged the existence of the ceasefire. [1] When contacted, presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga, in a text, told PREMIUM TIMES to contact the Ministry of Defence or the Office of the National Security Adviser. [1] The spokesperson for Defence Headquarters, Samaila Uba, did not respond to calls. [1] A message sent to him has not been responded to. [1] A similar message sent to an NSA spokesperson was also not responded to. [1] Analysts quoted in the publication warned that while temporary truces can save lives and facilitate hostage releases, they also risk allowing insurgent groups to regroup unless accompanied by broader peacebuilding efforts and accountability measures. [1] “It could be just a temporary, tactical ceasefire that benefits both sides, but doesn’t really affect the trajectory of the war,” Malik Samuel, a conflict researcher at the Good Governance Africa, said. [1] Mr Samuel expressed doubts that such a truce could lead to a “sustainable peace settlement.” [1] The report described the ceasefire as one of the most significant known attempts at dialogue between the Nigerian government and Boko Haram in recent years, but noted that its long-term sustainability remains uncertain given the fragmented nature of insurgent groups operating in the North-east. [1]
Sudanese Refugee Emergency in Chad
UNHCR reported on the emergency situation for Sudanese refugees in Chad as of 7 September 2026. [2]
UNHCR map details emergency situation for Sudanese refugees in Chad. — Source: reliefweb
Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia and Regional Escalation Risks
Yemen's Houthis launched their heaviest attack in years on Saudi oil facilities, prompting Saudi threats of retaliation after a four-year truce collapsed in July amid the broader Middle East war involving the US and Iran. [3] Saudi Arabia on Tuesday threatened to hit back after a wave of missiles from Yemen's Houthis set oil facilities ablaze and wounded dozens, the Iran-backed rebels' heaviest attack in years. [3] It comes after a four-year truce collapsed in July, months into the Middle East war between the United States and Iran. [3] France 24's Rochelle Ferguson Bouyahi provides analysis. [3]
UN Calls to Expand Sudan Arms Embargo
The UN Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan urged the Human Rights Council to widen the Darfur arms embargo nationwide, extend its mandate, and halt external support fueling the war, citing possible war crimes by both the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces including drone attacks on civilians. [4] The UN's Sudan fact-finding mission has urged the Human Rights Council to expand the Darfur arms embargo to the whole country, warning that foreign support is sustaining a war in which both sides may have committed war crimes. [4] Sudan's government, however, rejects efforts to treat the warring parties as equivalent and says the conflict is being prolonged by external backing for the Rapid Support Forces. [4] Many of the violations documented in Sudan may amount to international crimes, and responsibility could extend to those who finance, supply, or otherwise enable them, Mohamed Chande Othman, chair of the UN Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan, told the 63rd session of the Human Rights Council at the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Switzerland on Monday. [4] He said drones had reshaped the battlefield, fuelled by external support in the form of weapons, logistics, and personnel, while the growing use of long-range drones had had devastating consequences for civilians and essential services. [4] The mission is continuing its investigation into attacks in El Obeid, which have forced civilians to flee, as well as attacks on Kadugli, Ed Daein, and Yabus. [4] Othman said both sides had committed violations that may amount to war crimes. [4] He described a cross-border network facilitating military operations involving the United Arab Emirates, Chad, Libya, which he said had supplied weapons to Nyala. [4] Colombians had also been recruited into the Rapid Support Forces to operate drones and provide training, he said, adding that the mission's investigation into external support for the Sudanese Armed Forces was continuing. [4] Othman said states had a responsibility not only to refrain from violations, but also to take reasonable measures to prevent them where there was a clear and foreseeable risk. [4] Survivors, witnesses, journalists, lawyers, and human rights defenders face intimidation and harassment from all parties to the conflict, both inside and outside Sudan, particularly because of their cooperation with investigative missions, he said. [4] He called for an end to reprisals and said the international community had a responsibility to act rather than merely document violations. [4] The mission recommended an immediate end to the war, full compliance with international human rights and humanitarian law, and all possible precautions to protect civilians and civilian objects. [4] It called for unlawful military support to be halted, and urged states to investigate individuals and entities under their jurisdiction that provide such support. [4] It also called for the Darfur arms embargo to be enforced and expanded across Sudan, echoing proposals before the UN Security Council. [4] The mission urged the preservation of evidence, protection for victims and witnesses, and effective assistance and remedies for survivors, while calling for accountability across the full chain of responsibility, including those who commit, order, finance, supply, or facilitate international crimes. [4] Sudan's attorney general and head of the National Committee for the Investigation of Crimes and Violations of National and International Humanitarian Law, Intisar Abdel Aal, presented a sharply different account of the conflict. [4] She described the war as a "proxy war", citing multiple international reports, and directly accused the United Arab Emirates of being the "sponsor of the rebel militia", saying its external support for the Rapid Support Forces was the main reason the war had been prolonged and atrocities committed. [4] She called for the UAE to be condemned and for decisive action to stop its support, but rejected calls to expand the arms embargo, describing them as the adoption of demands made by the "rebel militia". [4] Abdel Aal also pointed to the work of Sudan's national investigation committee, saying it had made significant progress as the Sudanese Armed Forces advanced and security was restored. [4] The attorney general announced the launch of a Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue for peace, declared by the chair of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, and said participants would be provided with guarantees and immunities. [4] The Arab League and African Union had welcomed the dialogue, she said, adding that justice and peace were complementary. [4] The National Committee for Investigation has documented 153,112 criminal cases in accordance with national and international standards. [4] Immunity was lifted in 391 cases involving members of regular forces, while 6,862 cases were withdrawn during the investigation stage. [4] Investigations were completed in 22,608 cases and referred to national courts, which ruled on 10,733 cases. [4] The attorney general said the committee had documented 2,261 cases of rape against women and girls, 15,227 cases of detention and enforced disappearance, 32,622 deaths, and 443 injuries. [4] She called on the council and UN mechanisms to follow the principle of complementarity rather than imposing external mechanisms. [4] The European Union called for all states and external actors to stop actions and support that fuel the conflict, and backed the renewal of the Fact-Finding Mission's mandate to allow it to continue collecting and preserving evidence. [4] The eight Nordic and Baltic countries also called for the mandate to be renewed and for the mission to be granted access to Sudan, stressing its role in documenting violations, preserving evidence, and laying the foundations for accountability. [4] Their statement said external support was helping sustain military operations and strengthening the capacities of the warring parties. [4] It urged all states to halt funding and support enabling the conflict, and called on the parties to agree to a sustainable ceasefire, protect civilians and humanitarian workers, and ensure safe and unhindered humanitarian access. [4] Luxembourg expressed deep concern about drone attacks on civilians and protected infrastructure, calling for full respect for the Darfur arms embargo and stronger mechanisms to track arms transfers. [4] Together, the European Union, Nordic and Baltic countries, and Luxembourg backed continued international scrutiny and measures aimed at preserving evidence, strengthening accountability, and preventing further violations. [4] Kenya's representative, speaking on behalf of the African Group, emphasised a third strand of the debate, stressing the need to respect Sudan's sovereignty, unity, and independence, and calling for African solutions to African problems. [4] The representative called for efforts to be coordinated under the auspices of the African Union and Arab League, condemned interference in Sudan's internal affairs that fuels the conflict, and stressed the need to continue dialogue towards democratic transition. [4] The statement welcomed the Sudanese government's cooperation with relevant actors and said the state bore the primary responsibility for promoting human rights. [4] Egypt's representative went further in rejecting the equivalence drawn by some international assessments between the warring parties. [4] He said Sudanese people continued to pay the price for violations committed by the Rapid Support Forces, rejected any attempt to equate the army with the RSF, and opposed interference in Sudan's affairs and threats to its unity. [4] DefendDefenders described the Fact-Finding Mission as indispensable and said the conduct of the warring parties showed a complete disregard for international law and their obligations under the Jeddah Declaration. [4]
Yemeni Army Recaptures Territory from Houthis
The Yemeni army stated it recaptured the Al-Yatmah area in northern Yemen from the Houthis. [5] There was no immediate comment from Houthis on army’s statement. [5]
Broader Implications for Global Conflict Trends in Most Dangerous Countries
The developments form part of sustained global instability involving insurgencies, proxy support, and fragile truces. [1] [3] [4]
What to watch next: The truce in Nigeria does not extend to ISWAP, which remains active, while the UN mission continues its investigation into external support and drone use in Sudan.
