ISW Finds Russia Lost 80.81 Square Kilometers in September While Putin Claims 1,301 Gained
Putin’s September Territorial Claims
Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian forces took control of 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in September. [1] Putin stated that this figure was two and a half times more than the preceding months and that the pace was increasing. [1] The American think tank Institute for the Study of War rejected these figures outright. [1] ISW documented that Russian forces instead recorded a net territorial loss of 80.81 square kilometers during September. [1] When areas of infiltration without established control are included the net loss rises to 175.18 square kilometers. [1] These observations come from ISW’s own tracking of battlefield developments. [1] Putin made the territorial assertion during the annual Valdai conference. [1] The conference theme was responsibility for the future and boundaries of the possible or possibilities without limits. [1]
ISW Analysis of Kremlin Battlefield Narrative
ISW described Putin’s claims about September 2026 frontline advances as so far from reality that they resemble hallucinations. [1] The think tank stated that the assertions continue to present a fictitious picture of the battlefield that supports Kremlin war efforts by falsely portraying Russian advances as extensive. [1] ISW noted uncertainty over whether Putin himself knows the figures are false or whether he receives fabricated data because of a culture of lying deeply rooted in the Russian military command structure. [1] The analysis placed the claims within a broader Russian strategy of presenting a fictitious battlefield image. [1] ISW emphasized that the numbers bear no relation to documented territorial changes. [1]
Former Ukrainian Prime Minister states Putin cannot admit mistake over Ukraine. — Source: newsmax
Nuclear Threats and Credibility Concerns
Putin warned that a direct attack on Russia including on Kaliningrad could lead to consideration of all weapons Russia has at its disposal. [1] The warning formed part of a long series of Russian statements since the full-scale invasion in 2022. [1] Similar threats have been issued in connection with Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine and Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. [1] Multiple thresholds have been crossed without Russia acting on the threats. [1] Repeated issuance of such warnings has weakened Russia’s credibility according to researchers. [1] The statements were delivered at the Valdai conference. [1]
Putin’s Account of the War’s Origins
Putin asserted that Russia did not start the war in Ukraine and placed responsibility on Ukraine and the West including NATO expansion and developments after 2014. [1] This account conflicts with the documented sequence of events. [1] Russia’s warfare against Ukraine began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and combat operations in Donetsk and Luhansk before the full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022. [1] The United Nations has characterized Russia’s actions as aggression against Ukraine. [1] The annexation of Crimea and the four Ukrainian regions later declared Russian by Moscow have not received international recognition. [1] Putin repeated the incorrect claim at the Valdai conference. [1]
Vladimir Putin speaks at the Valdai conference in Russia. — Source: newsmax
Russian Position on Peace Negotiations
Putin stated that Russia is open to negotiations but that any agreement must take into account what Russia defines as its national interests. [1] Since 2024 this position has involved maximalist demands including Ukrainian neutrality limitations on Ukraine’s defense no foreign troops or weapons deliveries international recognition of the annexed areas and lifting of sanctions. [1] Putin said Russia wants to end the war through negotiations as soon as possible while insisting that any settlement must meet conditions acceptable to Russia and include security guarantees. [3] Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said Putin cannot admit a mistake over Ukraine despite growing economic trouble and rising unease among ordinary Russians and the elite. [2] Kasyanov stated that Putin is not ready to negotiate an end to the war. [2] Analyses from Chatham House first in 2025 and again in a new assessment in May noted that Russia has not shown signs of abandoning central demands such as Ukraine staying out of NATO and being limited militarily. [1] The discussion of peace talks gained renewed attention when the American president Donald Trump began his second presidential term. [1]
Ukrainian Reports of Russian Casualties
Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russia lost 1,560 soldiers killed and wounded over the past day. [5] This figure brings the total number of Russian personnel losses since 24 February 2022 to 1,538,950. [5] The General Staff also listed cumulative equipment losses including 12,391 tanks 25,477 armoured combat vehicles 50,637 artillery systems 2,178 multiple-launch rocket systems 1,683 air defence systems 443 fixed-wing aircraft 356 helicopters 2,824 ground robotic systems 544,498 operational-tactical UAVs 5,126 cruise missiles 35 ships and boats 2 submarines 156,731 vehicles and fuel tankers and 4,783 special vehicles and other equipment. [5] The information is being confirmed. [5] These daily updates provide ongoing context for battlefield developments. [5]
What to watch next: Putin’s insistence on maximalist conditions for any talks and former prime minister Kasyanov’s assessment that he cannot admit a mistake will continue to shape prospects for negotiations alongside daily Ukrainian reports of Russian losses.
