Iran War Sees Tehran Take Initiative as Trump Cancels Planned Strike
Six months into the Iran war, Iran has seized the initiative by launching preemptive attacks aimed at exhausting US forces and asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the Trump administration to cancel a planned large-scale strike at the request of regional allies.
Iran Seizes Initiative After Six Months of Conflict
After six months of the Iran war with the United States, Iran has achieved a notable gain in that Washington is increasingly fighting according to the tempo imposed by Tehran. [1] Over the past two weeks Iran has moved to the position of initiative, carrying out preemptive attacks intended to wear down the United States and push the region to accept the reality of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. [1] Researcher Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations stated that what has been seen in the past week is a much greater readiness to initiate escalation rather than merely reacting. [1] She noted that Iran now views a return to full-scale war with the United States and Israel as nearly inevitable. [1] The Iranian leadership is betting that it can either deter President Trump from resuming major military operations by demonstrating its ability to escalate the conflict or exhaust the United States in a prolonged war of attrition, despite the heavy costs Iran itself bears. [1] Geranmayeh added that what is happening is merely a glimpse of the potential regional repercussions, and Iran is using its attacks as a message to the Americans that even though the United States and Israel started this war, they will not be the party that determines how it ends. [1] Analysts observe that Iran, amid the rising influence of the Revolutionary Guards, has decided to go on the offensive to confirm that continuing the war will carry a major military and economic cost for Trump and for countries in the region. [1] Former Israeli military intelligence Iran affairs analyst Danny Citrinovich said there is consensus inside Iran that negotiating with the Americans under current conditions has become pointless, adding that Iran will not surrender and is trying to show the price everyone will pay if it is attacked. [1] He views the bolder Iranian approach as reflecting deeper changes inside Tehran after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stating that this is the new Iran and they believe the time has come to use the capabilities they possess. [1]
Collapse of June Ceasefire and Resumption of Fighting
Tehran and Washington had appeared in June to be heading toward de-escalation after signing a memorandum that called for halting combat, negotiating a peaceful settlement, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had closed during the battles that followed the US and Israeli strikes in February. [1] The agreement collapsed after Iran targeted several vessels that attempted to cross the strait amid a dispute between the two sides over the interpretation of the ceasefire clauses. [1] Trump responded by ordering a wave of retaliatory strikes on Iran, sending the crisis into a new spiral of fighting during which Tehran launched missiles and drones across the region while the United States intensified its bombing of southern Iran. [1] Trump had been considering resuming a broad bombing campaign in recent days while mediators continued efforts to prevent a return to all-out war. [1] On Saturday evening he announced that the United States, although it had been fully ready and prepared to move, decided to cancel the planned attack at the request of its Middle East allies, noting that an agreement with Iran might be close. [1]
{IMAGE_2}
Expansion Via Proxies and Regional States Drawn In
The consequences of the war have already affected Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey. [2] Rocket strikes, drone attacks and air defense activity are regularly recorded in the region. [2] Iran is expanding the conflict through allied groups, with Iraqi factions and Yemeni Houthis attacking Saudi energy targets and threatening Red Sea shipping through Bab al-Mandab. [1] Both the Iraqi factions and the Houthis have carried out attacks on Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, while the Houthis have sought to choke Saudi navigation in the Red Sea by threatening vessel movement through the Bab al-Mandab strait, which has driven up energy prices as the Iranian blockade expands to include more than one strategic maritime passage. [1] Iran has also intensified its attacks in recent weeks on Kuwait and Bahrain, forcing Washington to redeploy its air and ground forces away from bases in the Gulf and transfer part of them to Jordan, Israel and other areas. [1] In Jordan the escalation has sparked a wave of anger, with hundreds of activists and public figures signing an open letter demanding the withdrawal of US forces. [1] A Middle East Eye opinion piece argues that a drone attack on two gas vessels in the Egyptian port city of Damietta last week indicates that Iran and its allied regional militias such as the Houthis in Yemen could seriously threaten Egyptian ports and the vital Suez Canal if they chose. [3] The same opinion piece states that the unprecedented 29 July drone attack sparked fires on a US-owned floating storage and regasification unit and a Greek-owned LNG tanker, and that marine officers who fought the fires feared the entire port and parts of the adjoining city could have exploded. [3]
US and Saudi Joint Action and Trump's Decision to Stand Down
One of the most notable events in recent days has been the first joint use of American and Saudi aviation against pro-Iranian forces in Iraq. [2] According to media reports, the strike killed several Iranian military advisers. [2] Saudi Arabia has now effectively become involved in two armed confrontations, with Iran and with the Yemeni Houthis. [2] Former US Defense Department official Dana Stroul said Iran is trying to expand the circle of conflict selectively to push countries in the region away from the United States or to pressure Washington to retreat. [1] Analysts warn that Iran may miscalculate the extent of its ability to pressure Washington and Trump without facing a broad military response. [1] Specialist in Revolutionary Guards affairs Afshon Ostovar said Iran is not returning to the level of escalation seen in the war in late February or early March, explaining that this escalation aims to prolong the duration of the conflict more than it seeks to increase the scale of destruction. [1] He added that the Revolutionary Guards view the conflict as a zero-sum game and believe Iran’s adversaries lack the political will for a long war, and therefore continued fighting will ultimately erode their resolve. [1]
{IMAGE_3}
Strategic Aims and Risks for Iran
Johns Hopkins University Iran studies professor Vali Nasr said Iran is escalating while keeping a clear goal in mind, which is controlling American behavior and forcing Washington to recalculate its options. [1] He added that if matters continue in this way the war will become regional and the United States will not be able to choose the battlefields that suit it. [1] Nasr also said Iran is preparing for a long war and no longer sees reaching a negotiated settlement as realistic, explaining that its strategy is based on gradually distancing the United States from Iran, the Gulf, Syria and Iraq and limiting its presence to Israel and Jordan. [1] Researcher Farzan Sabet of the Geneva Graduate Institute said officials in Tehran consider disruption of global energy markets and the approach of US midterm elections as factors that can be exploited to pressure the White House. [1] Former US military intelligence official for the Middle East Karen Gibson said Iran’s strategy is based on making the military campaign economically and politically costly to the point that it pushes the United States to retreat, and she added that this strategy could succeed in the long term. [1] Sabet noted that Iran is not immune to pressure and indicated that its would decline if its already dire economic conditions worsen further, adding that a time may come when Tehran is forced to reassess its calculations. [1]
Impact on Global Energy Markets and Shipping
The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and Yemeni Houthis continue to threaten shipping through the Bab al-Mandab strait, which is considered a vital alternative route for transporting oil from Gulf countries. [2] Market participants fear further disruptions to raw material supplies and rises in energy resource prices. [2] The same Middle East Eye opinion piece argues that the Houthis are the best positioned to contribute to the Revolutionary Guards’ broader strategy of making the Red Sea a dangerous transit route, which would put enormous pressure on Suez trade and would have cascade effects on Egypt’s economy when it is weakened and liable to lead to widespread unrest. [3] The opinion piece further states that the relationship between the Houthis and Iran has continued to strengthen following the regional wars that began after the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel, and that the current conflict has only further deepened that partnership. [3]
What to watch next is whether Iran’s economic pressures intensify enough to force a reassessment of its calculations or whether the Revolutionary Guards continue to treat the conflict as a zero-sum game that will erode adversaries’ resolve over time.
