Iran Tensions Prompt Rubio Warning on Hormuz Control at ASEAN Summit

Amid ongoing Iran tensions, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz sets a dangerous precedent for freedom of navigation worldwide, as the US military conducted its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iranian targets to degrade threats to commercial shipping. [1]

Rubio Warns of Dangerous Precedent at ASEAN Meeting

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Southeast Asian foreign ministers on Wednesday that Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz would set a dangerous precedent with repercussions beyond the Middle East. [1] Rubio spoke at a Manila gathering of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. [1] He stated that allowing a nation-state to control an international waterway, charge a toll, and blow up ships if they do not pay would create a very dangerous precedent that will repeat itself in other parts of the world, including this region. [1] Rubio added that Iran demands the right, which they do not have under any existing legal mechanism, to control the transit of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. [1] There is a fundamental principle about freedom of navigation that is threatened, he said, and that cannot be allowed to happen. [1] Rubio's remarks came as the region is grappling with overlapping claims by China and ASEAN member states in the South China Sea. [1] The secretary of state added that the United States remains open to diplomacy with Iran but that Tehran is not serious. [1] The United States remains open and willing to engage in positive and constructive negotiations and discussions, provided that the commitments made are honoured, he said. [1] The problem we are currently facing is that they are not taking the negotiations seriously, Rubio said. [1] If they are serious, we will be too. If they are not, then we will do what is necessary to protect our interests and those of our allies. [1]

US Launches 11th Night of Strikes on Iran

US Central Command said it had begun striking military targets in Iran for the 11th consecutive night in a bid to degrade the country's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the waterway. [1] The US military said it completed an 11th consecutive night of strikes to further degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. [2] US Central Command said it had hit Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems in its week and a half of attacks. [3] Tehran residents reported hearing explosions in the early hours of Wednesday as Iran activated its air defenses over the capital. [3] Explosions were also reported in the southeastern coastal cities of Chabahar and Konarak, and two explosions were heard in Bushehr, home to Iran's only nuclear power plant. [3]

Houthis Open New Front with Saudi Blockade Threat

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on Monday. [3] Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea on Tuesday after threats from the Houthis. [3] In a letter to shippers, the Houthis threatened to attack any ships that load or discharge Saudi oil. [3] US President Donald Trump said the Houthis had not yet shut the Bab el-Mandeb, the Gate of Tears strait leading into the Red Sea, and threatened to act against them if they did. [3] So far it has not happened, Trump said. [3] If something like that happens, we take care of it. [3] The Houthi announcement already appeared to be having an impact, with two tankers which had just loaded Saudi crude bound for China and India at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu making U-turns on Tuesday. [3] With the war shutting the Strait of Hormuz leading out of the Gulf, the Red Sea has served as the main alternate route out for millions of barrels of Saudi oil per day. [3] A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf. [3] The maritime security agency UKMTO said on Tuesday a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz reported being struck by a projectile, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel and board a lifeboat. [3] Iran's Revolutionary Guards also said two oil tankers caught fire after explosions while attempting to transit the southern shipping lane of the strait. [3]

Trump Signals Further Action on Nuclear Sites

President Donald Trump stated the US is not finished attacking Iran. [2] On Tuesday, Trump renewed his threats to again attack Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz pretty soon. [3] Trump said he would attack the area of Pickaxe Mountain in the near future, and with great force. [5] He added that he would attack the area in the near future, and with very great force. [5] Iran promised it would retaliate. [3] On Wednesday, Tehran threatened to strike US and allied interests across the Middle East if Washington attacks its nuclear facilities. [5] Iran's Markas Pusat Khatam Al Anbiya warned that any US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would be considered an expansion of the regional conflict. [5]

Rising Costs and Casualties in the Conflict

The conflict has cost the US $37.5 billion so far. [3] US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told senators during a hearing that the war had cost $37.5 billion so far and asked them to approve another $70 billion in supplemental funds. [3] The secretary of defense requested a total Pentagon budget of $1.5 trillion and nearly $70 billion additional for the war with Iran. [4] President Donald Trump confirmed that 18 US service members have been killed so far, including four in Iranian attacks on US military bases in Jordan and Iraq over the last few days. [3] The Pentagon identified Sergeant Michael Emmanuel Swinton as the US service member killed after the explosion of an Iranian drone in Iraq. [4] His death added to those of First Lieutenant Tyler James Feehan, 25, and Soldier Isabella Gonzales, 19, who died in Jordan. [4] At least 17 US service members have died since the US and Israel launched the initial offensive on February 28. [4] Fifty civilians have been killed and 500 wounded in the recent US strikes on Iran, a health ministry official said. [3]

Diplomacy Remains Open but Limited

Rubio's statement that the US is willing to engage in negotiations with Iran if commitments are honoured came alongside the note that Tehran is not taking talks seriously. [1] A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire. [3] In a sign that diplomacy remains alive, Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited mediator Pakistan and asked Islamabad to continue its efforts. [3]

What to watch next: Trump has renewed threats to strike the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site at Natanz, while Iran has warned of retaliation against any such action on its nuclear facilities.