Hurricane Tracker Shows Kelvin Wave Raising US West Coast Sea Levels by up to One Foot
A hurricane tracker update highlights a slow-moving Kelvin wave linked to El Niño that is forecast to raise sea levels by up to a foot along the US West Coast, increasing flood and erosion risks for coastal communities already battered by recent storms, while isolated strong storms and flash flooding continue in parts of the southeastern US, Midwest, Cyprus and Crete.
Kelvin Wave Approaches US West Coast
A coastal trapped Kelvin wave, part of El Niño, is expected to raise California sea levels by as much as one foot in coming days, traveling northward from Mexico at about 6 mph and reaching San Diego within a week. [3] The wave originates in waters near Indonesia when trade winds die down, allowing water to slosh back along the equatorial strip from Indonesia all the way to South America. [3] As the equatorial Kelvin wave hits South America, the energy converts into a coastal Kelvin wave that heads both north and south along the continents. [3] The wave going toward the US is somewhere north of Cabo, Mexico, and travelling about 6 mph, with expectations it will reach San Diego within the next week. [3] While Kelvin waves are common, with five or six during every El Niño, this one arrives at a delicate time with sea temperatures already elevated. [3] When it gets really warm, that water expands, which causes sea levels to rise just because the water is warm, so an additional additive increase in sea level occurs. [3]
Flood and Erosion Risks for California
Elevated sea levels from the wave, when combined with storm surge, large swells or high tides, can double flood risk for every 2–4 inches of rise and worsen beach erosion. [3] The general rule of thumb is that every two to four inches of sea level rise that is seen in that background state essentially doubles flood risk. [3] In the past few weeks parts of southern California have been hit by storm surges that have eaten away at beaches or damaged properties. [3] In Dana Point and Laguna Beach, south of Los Angeles, several houses have been rendered uninhabitable, and at least one has completely collapsed. [3] In Malibu, an enormous sinkhole formed in the driveway of a house belonging to actor Nicolas Cage when pounding waves from a hurricane eroded the coastline. [3] Southern California just got battered by offshore tropical cyclones, which led to flooding events already and beach erosion, so there is lots of anxiety about extra flood risk coming from El Niño and these waves. [3] The Kelvin wave is both a cause and a symptom of El Niño. [3]
Ferry remains docked during strike with no sailings until Saturday noon at least. — Source: ekathimerini
Flash Flooding in Southeastern Georgia
Flash Flood Warning issued for central Appling County, Georgia, with 2–3.5 inches of rain already fallen and 1–2 inches more possible through 6:45 PM EDT. [1] At 3:45 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. [1] Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen, with additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible in the warned area. [1] Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. [1] The hazard is flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. [1]
Missouri River Moderate Flooding
Moderate flooding continues along the Missouri River at Glasgow, Missouri, forecast to persist until Wednesday morning with impacts to farmland, levees and rural areas. [2] Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast at the Missouri River at Glasgow affecting Saline, Chariton and Howard Counties. [2] The flood warning continues until Wednesday morning. [2] At 25.0 feet, farmland along the river floods. [2] At 27.0 feet, many agricultural levees are overtopped and widespread flooding of rural areas occurs. [2] Secondary roads and homes behind levees may be affected. [2]
Storms Forecast for Cyprus
Cyprus expects strong isolated storms through Wednesday, mainly affecting mountainous, inland and northern areas including occupied territories, with rain focused on western and southern coasts initially. [4] Isolated storms that are expected to be strong are not ruled out in the coming days. [4] Storms had already struck the northwest in Polis Chrysochous, Pyrgos Tillyrias and Akamas early on Saturday, while local rains and isolated storms are expected to affect other parts of the island. [4] Today other areas will be affected, namely mountainous areas, inland areas and the north, with a focus on the occupied territories. [4] Rain is expected during the night mainly on the western and southern coasts, with the phenomena expected to continue in Limassol and Paphos districts on Sunday morning. [4] The conditions are expected to move towards the higher mountains, inland and the northern regions in the afternoon. [4] The same weather conditions are expected to continue until Wednesday and would primarily occur in inland and in the higher mountains. [4] In the coming days phenomena are expected to be less extensive, but their intensity will likely be notable. [4]
Broader Climate Context for Heritage Sites
Unesco World Heritage sites in France and around the world are under threat from the climate crisis, with floods, droughts, rising seas and wildfires putting humanity’s most precious cultural heritage at risk. [5] A recent study published by France's EDHEC Climate Institute lists the 10 sites in the country most endangered by extreme weather that is being exacerbated by climate change. [5] At the top of the list is the 12th-century Fontenay Abbey in Burgundy. [5] The abbey was built near a stream, which was useful when there was no indoor plumbing, but that is precisely what makes it the most vulnerable site due to the intensification of the water cycle and the increased risk of flooding. [5] Flooding is identified as the main threat to France’s cultural heritage, with one in three Unesco-listed sites in France endangered by floods by 2050, including Avignon and Mont Saint-Michel. [5] The threat is more acute when sites are exposed to a combination of climate-related hazards, such as the Pont du Gard, which faces flooding, heatwaves and wildfires. [5] Another study identified the 50 most endangered Unesco sites globally, with the 9th-century Subak irrigation system for Bali's terraced rice fields topping the list. [5] China's Quanzhou is also under threat, while Timbuktu is endangered by the encroaching desert and sandstorms, and Djenné's 2,000 mud-brick houses are cracking under the strain of drought. [5]
What to watch next: the Kelvin wave is forecast to continue raising sea states along the US West Coast while isolated strong storms persist in Cyprus through Wednesday and moderate flooding holds on the Missouri River until Wednesday morning.
