Ethiopian Prime Minister Vows Air Superiority Against Tigray Rebel Offensive
Outbreak of Fighting
Fighting erupted between the Tigray People's Liberation Front and federal forces on September 23. [1] The TPLF launched an offensive before withdrawing from Mekelle after being pushed back by federal-aligned peace forces. [2] Tigrayan forces seized airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire and opened fronts in Afar and Amhara. [5] By 25 September, phone and internet lines in Tigray were cut on the TPLF's orders. [5] Seven armed groups including the TPLF, Fano militia in Amhara and Oromo Liberation Army formed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival to remove Abiy Ahmed. [5]
Government Response and Statements
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed vowed that federal forces will maintain air superiority and take preemptive action to counter the rebel offensive. [1] Abiy Ahmed urged rebels to choose peace, join the national reconciliation process and avoid treason while addressing parliament on modernizing defense forces. [1] He said, "in our region, we will have air superiority. Our defence will be modern, innovative and at all times ready and alert for combat. Our army will take preemptive and reactive action. They will show their bravery like their forefathers." [1] He added, "all those people fighting in the bushes: I kindly ask you to choose the path of peace. I ask you to take part in the nation-building, national reconciliation process. Join opposition parties with a peaceful demonstration of alternative ideas. Learn from your past revolutionary struggle and treason shall be avoided." [1]
Federal forces advance against Tigray rebels in northern Ethiopia. — Source: africanews
Reported Casualties and Disruptions
A drone strike in Tigray on Monday reportedly killed several people in a displacement camp. [1] Phone and internet lines in Tigray were cut on the TPLF's orders. [5] The cutoff followed Tigrayan forces seizing airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire. [5]
Strategic Developments in Tigray
Tigray peace forces allied with Ethiopia’s federal army have claimed to have seized several strategic positions. [2] The capture of Mekelle is a major setback for the TPLF. [2] The group launched an offensive on September 23 against federal forces before withdrawing from the Tigray capital, pushed back by the peace forces, a breakaway militia now allied with Addis Ababa. [2]
Ethiopia Monthly Protection Overview map for August 2026. — Source: reliefweb
Historical and Political Context
A Middle East Eye opinion piece argues that Ethiopia’s history has come back to haunt it through cycles of centralization versus regional autonomy. [5] The piece states that after nearly two centuries of swings between a centre that wants to command and regions that insist on ruling themselves, each centralising step cost Abiy a partner. [5] It notes that Abiy assumed power in 2018 by preaching Medemer but dissolved the EPRDF to form his Prosperity Party, after which tensions boiled over. [5] The opinion piece adds that the coalition now marching against Abiy is largely made up of the forces with which he won the last war. [5] It further states that the status of Welkait and Raya, claimed by both Amhara and Tigray, was left unresolved after the Pretoria agreement. [5]
Potential Paths Forward
A Middle East Eye opinion piece outlines three possible scenarios for Abiy. [5] In the first, he peels Amhara away with concessions over Welkait while presenting the TPLF as the aggressor. [5] In the second, the war settles into a stalemate where the centre holds the cities and the skies while armed movements hold the countryside. [5] In the third, the most dangerous path, Abiy seeks a unifying cause abroad such as access to the sea, which could turn a civil war into a war with Eritrea. [5]
What to watch next: Abiy has a drone fleet along with a fresh mandate from the public after his party won 438 of the 501 contested seats in parliament this past June, though some groups have rejected the results and voting did not take place in Tigray.
